Week 9 Watchlist (M-F only): Fine, We'll Talk About the Lions
Happy freakin' New Year's Day
Hello there, and happy New Year. I hope 2024 has a lot of good things in store for you; it’s a good time of year to name some wild dreams and live them out. There are 366 days this year to make them come to fruition, so see what you can put it on the board.
…
Okay, enough motivational talk and whatnot. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: that extremely stupid and bad call on Saturday night.
You know me as a college basketball writer, Tennessee media member, and as quietly as I can keep it, a Michigan football fan. (By the way, that’s today.) Unless you’re a Twitter follower, you may or may not know that I am also a Detroit Lions fan, which merely adds to my circle of misery. (Here is a full list of world or national championships the teams I support with any seriousness have won since I learned what sports were in 1999: none! None. Unless Leeds United winning the EFL Championship counts at all.) Naturally, Saturday night, I got a lot of requests asking for my take on the situation.
Ultimately I have come to a pair of conclusions.
1. Dan Campbell was right to go for two. I have seen a stunning amount of people mad at Dan Campbell, the single most aggressive coach in the NFL, going for two three times in a row at the end of this game. People are acting like he did this out of anger and spite and not because of the more obvious fact, which is that it was more statistically likely the home favorite (and superior team analytically) would win in overtime than the road underdog.
This can be proven by pretty much any metric you desire. Here is Ben Baldwin’s 4th down bot supporting all three attempts:
Even if you move it back to the 7, which the referees did, the bot still describes this as a marginal decision. It leans towards the XP, but given that Detroit lined up in an attempt to draw an offsides and got one, I find myself fine with it. The two-point conversion from the 3.5 yard line is also supported by Baldwin’s numbers.
Along with that, this was a mostly meaningless game for Detroit. The Lions already accomplished the main goal, which was to win the NFC North and deliver Detroit its first home playoff game in 30 years. The 49ers were not going to lose, so a 1 seed and potential bye was out. It was highly unlikely the Eagles were going to lose to the Cardinals at the time, so a 2 seed was probably fairly unlikely.
Let’s say you kick the can down the road and go to overtime. Sure! Detroit’s odds to win in overtime, had they kicked the extra point, were all of 30%. You’re then reliant on two of three things:
Winning the coin toss;
Immediately scoring a touchdown, or;
Limiting Dallas, the league’s #3 scoring offense, to three or zero points.
By going for two, you make the decision for yourself. The Lions themselves have a top-5 scoring offense and weapons across the board. The Lions defense, meanwhile, doesn’t crack the NFL’s top 20 in scoring allowed. Are you sure you’d rather put the game on their backs instead of attempting to end it in regulation?
This is all about the decision itself and not the play calls, by the way. The first one was a great design ruined by a bad call. The second was a blatant attempt at either drawing an offsides or taking a delay of game. The third resulted in a receiver getting open and likely would have resulted in two points with a better throw.
I again ask: what’s the big deal here? Were you that confident that a Lions defense who gave up 24 to Nick Mullens was suddenly going to turn into a Ray Lewis unit in overtime? I was not. Might as well try and end it there.
2. The officials blew it big time and are big dumb stupid people. Obviously.
Here’s this week’s Watchlist. It’s separated into two categories: weekdays and weekend, the latter of which will be its own post posted separately.
MONDAY, JANUARY 1
FIVE STARS
The College Football Playoff, 5 PM ET and 8:45 PM ET, ESPN. Even I, a major hater of most things college football is doing these days, think these matchups are pretty cool. Texas-Washington should be explosive and wild; Michigan-Alabama feels like a meeting of the titans and has actual personal investment for me. Apparently there are basketball games being played on this day but I’m unaware of what they are, sorry.
THREE? TWO? STARS
The Citrus Bowl, 1 PM ET, ESPN. Look: I get it. I get why Tennessee fans are really interested here. I do! But this is catnip for people who want to read way too much into completely meaningless games. I wonder if that maybe burned a certain program in the past? Who’s to say. Anyway, either outcome here is very funny to me: either Iowa fans rightfully believe they are going 12-0 next year after somehow getting to 11-2 with a pair of dead dogs under center, or the Tennessee hype train reaches full steam.
The other games too I guess. Apparently Wisconsin and LSU are playing each other? Why?
TUESDAY, JANUARY 2
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #15 Michigan State at #3 Iowa (-10.5), 9 PM ET, Peacock. For the first time, shamefully, a women’s game is the #1 game of the week on our watchlist. Of the plausible first entries, though, this one ranks very highly among the potential picks.
For one, you have Iowa, the single most watchable team on either side of the men’s/women’s divide at this moment in history. You know of Caitlin Clark, obviously, and the fact that she’s eternally must-watch TV. It’s not just her, though; this roster ranks #2 in the nation in eFG%, #2 in 2PT%, and is a load to handle outside of Clark. Her usage opens things up for terrific players like Kate Martin and Hannah Stuelke, the latter of which is the latest in the long line of great Iowa centers.
You may know very little about Michigan State in comparison. That’s a shame, because they rank #2 in the nation in PPG at 92.5 a night, #3 in three-pointers made this year, #4 in steals per game, and they play at a blistering (for D-1) 77 possession pace, which would be second-fastest nationally on the men’s side. The Spartans don’t have a locked-in star but their most entertaining (and best) player is Julia Ayrault, a marvelous center who is posting a hilarious 14 PPG/7 RPG/3 APG/3 BPG statline on 60% 2PT/34% 3PT/85% FT shooting. You’ve gotta watch this game. Promise.
FIVE STARS
#12 North Carolina (-3) at #46 Pittsburgh, 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is a terrific, terrific night for college hoops when this is the opening act. I think that basically everyone is aware of UNC at this point and their potential newfound status as the ACC favorite, but fewer are aware that Pitt is doing a surprisingly good job of following up their 2022-23 run to the Round of 32 by actually being in the KenPom top 50 this year. UNC’s style is eminently watchable, but Pitt plays fast and loose with a ton of threes. This is also a great chance to see Blake Hinson play if you haven’t yet; it feels like he’s been in college my entire life. Currently shooting 44% from three on very high volume.
#35 New Mexico at #29 Colorado State (-5), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. This is for the late-night crowd, obviously, but even if you can only survive the first half you gotta go for it. Colorado State is #3 in eFG% and has one of the greatest players in the nation in Isaiah Stevens on their side, while New Mexico plays a style of basketball that was last played in 2006 and makes it perfectly fit to their strengths. It is a true styles clash of two Mountain West titans, and I haven’t said enough how much cooler the Mountain West home environments are compared to most. Give it a run.
THREE STARS
#2 Purdue (-10) at #73 Maryland, 7 PM ET, Peacock. This is kind of like how people began treating Ohio State and Michigan road games in football: you’re exclusively keeping track of this to see if they screw up. If they don’t, this isn’t a noteworthy game.
#52 Iowa at #15 Wisconsin (-10), 7 PM ET, BTN. Iowa finally doesn’t have enough juice this year to be much of anything, but as always, they’ll be pretty frisky in Big Ten play. Interesting timing here for Wisconsin, as they have a full extra week of rest on Iowa…which can sometimes play against you.
#114 Cornell at #16 Baylor (-16), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is very likely to be a blowout, and Baylor obviously has a huge athleticism edge here. But this may be the only time all year where we get #1 in 2PT% (Cornell) playing #1 in 3PT% (Baylor). Might as well cherish it when it happens.
#60 Butler at #45 St. John’s (-4), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I mean, I guess. People taking Butler very seriously, which is understandable, but they’ve lost by double digits (admittedly, the last of which was in OT) in both true road games. Their best win is either a neutral-site one over an NIT-level Boise team or a home win over a bubble-level Texas Tech team. St. John’s has done some stupid stuff but at least they beat Utah.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 3
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #7 UConn (-6.5) at #19 Creighton, 7 PM ET, SNY. The great news is that arguably the best game of the night and a game between two of the 20 best teams in women’s hoops is not viewable for those who live outside of the Northeast. What a joy. If you can find a way to watch this, you get to see a UConn team that’s very injured but very good take on a Creighton team with a three-headed monster in Emma Ronsiek (18.6 PPG, 53% 2PT, 42% 3PT), Lauren Jenson (17 PPG), and Morgan Maly (14.7 PPG). Similar to the men’s side, Creighton slows it down and shoots a ton of threes, which can mean a high-variance game in either direction.
NCAAW: #6 Texas at #56 Texas Tech, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Texas’s best player, Rori Harmon, went down with a season-ending injury last week. That’s horrid news for a Final Four hopeful, but the good news is that they’ve had 11 players getting 13+ minutes a night, so they’ve got more depth than most. A good test against a Texas Tech team averaging 24 points off turnovers a game.
D2: #1 Nova Southeastern (-8.5) at #46 Florida Southern, 7:30 PM ET, streaming. “But Will,” you say, “a game between #1 and #46?” Sure, if that game has a projected total of 180.5 points, per Massey. It’s a lot more electric than the concept of a game between Houston and Pittsburgh, as a D-1 example. Both of these teams run like heck; it’s a game between this year’s #2 in scoring (Nova SE at an insane 108.4 PPG) and last year’s #3 (Florida Southern at 91.7). This is also an actual rivalry game now, which adds to the spice, and represents the biggest obstacle standing between NSU and a 26-0 regular season. Love it.
#19 Clemson (-2) at #54 Miami, 8 PM ET, ESPN.
In all seriousness, this game rules, even if the seriousness of Miami in particular strikes me as being very low. Two tremendous offenses and a Miami team that is quietly really in need of a good win. An 0-2 record and -49 combined scoring margin against the two NCAA Tournament teams they’ve played won’t cut it.
THREE STARS
#145 Longwood at #147 Winthrop (-3), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
#136 High Point at #154 Radford (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This looks weird on the surface, but these are two games between the four dead-equal teams that are competing for the Big South title. (UNC Asheville is not one of them to this point, they’ve sucked so far.) It’s the first real data point in figuring out which of these teams ends up a 14 or 15 seed.
NCAAW: #51 Kansas at #30 Iowa State (-7.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
NCAAW: #42 TCU at #14 Baylor (-14.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
NCAAW: #23 Maryland (-8.5) at #61 Minnesota, 8 PM ET, BTN+. Good three-pack of women’s games here you can pivot to if the headliner(s) flop. The problem here is that only one of the teams in each game is on the good side of the Tournament bubble, save for TCU/Baylor, which is apparently a matchup of a future 6 seed and a 3. I don’t buy TCU much at all, though, a team who’s played a horrendous schedule and is riding an insane 17.2% 3PT% gap. Opponents are shooting 22% from three, which, no chance that holds. On the other hand, Minnesota feels pretty underrated, particularly on defense.
#42 Xavier at #22 Villanova (-7), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Xavier’s actually exceeded expectations for me, particularly defensively, but 7-6 is also 7-6. This probably means they’re a good team to buy low on because they’re 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less. If they want to get on the bubble, Xavier really, really needs this win after swinging and missing in non-conference play. Villanova also needs it, but is less desperate.
#78 St. Bonaventure at #88 VCU (-3), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. The good news is that VCU actually has a watchable offense with Ryan Odom as head coach. In general this should be a good, watchable game, and in the A-10’s desperate bid to find a second March team, the winner of this could have a leg up on the competition.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 4
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #27 Michigan at #8 Indiana (-8.5), 7 PM ET, BTN. The problem with the star ranges here is that sometimes you get nights like this, where there are six games that would all be great second-screen picks but none that are must-watch affairs. I think this comes closest. Michigan’s women’s program has become an every-year joy to watch under Kim Barnes Arico, while Indiana’s offense is a terrifying thing to try and defend. Mackenzie Holmes is also a very, very entertaining player.
NCAAW: #37 Florida State at #12 NC State (-9.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Very enjoyable game here between two teams that love to play fast. FSU averages over 78 possessions a game, which would lead the men’s side of things, and both of these teams want to force a ton of jumpers while not taking many jumpers themselves. Generally in these types of games you just lean towards the better team (NCSU), but we’ll see.
NCAAW: #18 Duke at #20 Louisville (-5.5), 8 PM ET, ACCN. This game is a real testament to the power of defense, if nothing else. Both of these are excellent teams who’ll have a real shot at the ACC title; both also have very dry offenses where the top scorer between the two teams (Louisville’s Kiki Jefferson) barely cracks 12 PPG.
#62 James Madison (-5) at #140 Louisiana Lafayette, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Louisiana is a little down from last year but is still better than I’d personally anticipated, with a defense that forces lots of turnovers. The teams JMU has struggled with so far (SIU, Kent, Radford) have shot it very well from deep, which is a strength of ULL’s. I don’t think this is a JMU loss but it wouldn’t be a shocker.
#49 Oregon at #48 Washington (-4), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Garden-variety good game between two bubble teams.
#24 Colorado at #3 Arizona (-11), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN. This barely scraped onto the four-star pile, but Colorado’s offense has been so exciting to watch this year (41% 3PT, 57% 2PT, 22nd OREB%) that even if this is a double-digit Arizona win as expected it could be something like 88-77 Wildcats. The February 10 road trip Arizona has to make to Colorado has a good shot at the Six-Star Game of the Week that week.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #82 Vanderbilt at #35 Mississippi State (-8.5), 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network+. I trust neither of these teams, who are 12-1 and 13-2 respectively, but someone has to win. I think State can score and score frequently; Vandy’s path to reliable points isn’t quite as visible.
#121 College of Charleston at #107 Hofstra (-4), 7 PM ET, FloHoops.
#116 UNC Wilmington at #126 Drexel (-2), 7 PM ET, FloHoops. Same strategy as earlier in this post: these are the four best teams in the CAA, all roughly equal, and they play each other for the first time in a home-and-home series. Each plays a total of five games in the round-robin here; if any of them can go 4-1 they’re probably winning the conference. Winner is probably a 13 seed, so prepare for the 4-seed Big Ten opponent they draw to struggle for about 37 minutes.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 5
FIVE STARS
#10 Illinois at #2 Purdue (-8), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I fully reserve the right to downgrade this, because we have extremely little data on Illinois without Terrence Shannon Jr. (If you missed it: barf.) The very limited data we do have from Hoop-Explorer suggests that Illinois would be something like 11 points worse per 100 without him, which is pretty extreme but this is/was a shoo-in First-Team All-American we’re talking about. An 11 point dropoff means you’re going from 10th to 64th; even a much less extreme 5-point dropoff, which is what Torvik suggests, means Illinois just became the 31st-best team in the nation.
Apologies to Fairleigh Dickinson and Northwestern, but this is the first serious test we’re gonna get of life without Shannon. Even with him this would’ve been really tough. Purdue’s been a monster at home over the last three years, going 18-3 against Big Ten foes with 11 of those being double-digit victories. A key thing for me: can Marcus Domask generate consistent points off of ball screens by shooting it over Edey? If the answer is yes, Illinois has a shot. If it’s maybe or no, this will be as expected.
FOUR STARS
#6 UConn (-5) at #61 Butler, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Now for all the trash talk I put out on Butler earlier, they’ve been a different animal at home under Thad Matta. One need only recall Butler knocking off future 3-seed Xavier at home last February, and as a home underdog in general, he’s got a solid 8-13 record as a home underdog in conference play. Sounds flimsy, but a 38% win rate is pretty good for home dogs. The problem for Butler here is pretty obvious: they’re a horrendous defensive rebounding team that is about to play UConn.
NCAAW: #17 Colorado at #39 Arizona (-1.5), 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. The Pac-12 is the best conference in women’s basketball this year, so use your Friday night to your advantage if you can hunt down this dying network on a fridge or whatever. Arizona not being on the NCAA Tournament radar at the moment should change, as they’ve played a pretty tough schedule and have a great defense. Colorado simply Has It offensively and is shooting 57% on twos, with Jaylyn Sherrod (14.8 PPG) and Aaronette Vonleh (15.4 PPG) leading the way there.
NCAAW: #26 Washington State at #2 Stanford (-15.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Stanford is the newest of the rotating threats to South Carolina’s crown this year, which is a bit like saying that TCU was a rotating threat to Georgia in football last year, but hey. Stanford’s 1-2 punch of Cameron Brink (18.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Kiki Iriafen (16.9 PPG, 9.8 RPG) is almost untouchable across the sport at the moment, but an area they’re somewhat vulnerable to is against opponents that can shoot it…which Washington State sometimes can. If this game is one of the sometimes it’ll be fun.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #34 Oregon State at #21 USC (-5.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. USC is a 2 seed in ESPN’s latest bracketology but feels very overrated to me…possibly because they do have the second-most exciting player in the sport right now, JuJu Watkins (26.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 1.6 BPG). If you’re one of the people who wishes Caitlin Clark would play a dang defensive possession or two, Watkins is your person.