Week 9 Watchlist (weekend only)
All the good games piled into two days
This is a continuation of this week’s watchlist, but just the Saturday/Sunday affairs only. Enjoy.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 6
As is tradition now, this is a block-by-block watchlist.
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#12 North Carolina at #19 Clemson (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. Oh yeah. Oh yeah!!! Do you really need a sell? This is PJ Hall versus Armando Bacot. It’s RJ Davis versus the world. Joseph Girard versus Davis. Elliot Cadeau versus Chase Hunter. I am not at all convinced that Clemson is going to be a 2 or 3 seed come March, but I am fully convinced that they can make pretty much any game fun. This should be no exception. At the time of publishing, Ken’s expected score is 80-78 Clemson. Let me note right here I’m expecting more points than that on both sides.
#18 Kentucky (-1) at #34 Florida, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is how I know conference play is starting: this is a garden-variety great conference game where a higher-ranked team has to go play on the road against a pumped-up opponent. There are hundreds of these games every winter, but they never get old. The expected score here: Kentucky 86-85. If that comes to fruition you’re getting two of the games of the year before the clock hits 3 PM.
FOUR STARS
#31 Mississippi State (-1) at #60 South Carolina, 12 PM ET, CBS. CBS, huh! Interesting. I don’t think this is a four-star watchability game, but it does hold real importance both ways. State finally has Tolu Smith back and sustained top-25 level play without him, which makes me really interested to see what they do at full strength. South Carolina played an awful non-conference schedule but went 12-1 against it; they’ve played awful non-conference schedules basically every year for a decade now and pretty much never did that. Color me intrigued as to how this one goes.
#46 St. John’s at #22 Villanova (-7), 1 PM ET, FOX. These are two teams that need to figure out who they are and what it is they do. Does St. John’s have any interest in consistently showing up on defense? Does Villanova have a second move if Eric Dixon’s not cooking inside? Does Villanova have a third move if their threes aren’t falling? I watch both of these teams play and feel like each needs some sort of targeted exorcism.
THREE STARS
#169 Wright State at #129 Fort Wayne (-6), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. The Horizon League race for an eventual 13/14 seed is pretty interesting to me because they’ve got five or six teams that are all roughly the same. Fort Wayne has played like the best one but is anemic offensively if their threes aren’t falling. Wright State’s offense is easily the best in the league but might be paired with the worst defense I have ever seen from a non-abject squad. Score should be in the 80s, maybe the 90s.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #6 Texas (-7.5) at #29 West Virginia, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This season hasn’t unfolded in the manner anyone wanted for the West Virginia men’s basketball program. A super-promising season was derailed by Bob Huggins losing his mind in the offseason, and the remnants of that look like the worst team in the Big 12. It’s quite underwhelming given where everyone thought it would be at several months ago.
On the other hand: this awesome, awesome women’s team. WVU went 21 seasons in a row with the same coach - Mike Carey - before he elected to retire in spring 2022. They hired Dawn Plitzuweit…who bailed after one year for Minnesota. In comes Mark Kellogg from Stephen F. Austin, where he’d gone 195-55 across eight seasons, but he took over a roster projected to be eighth-best in the league. They’re 12-0 and just demolished a bubble-level Kansas team on the road by 25. Assuming they beat Cincinnati on Wednesday, this will be their biggest home game in years. Here’s hoping the fans come out for them.
FOUR STARS
#8 Auburn (-5) at #59 Arkansas, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Never seen a better Nobody Believes In Us SEC game. Well, maybe not never, but rarely any more obvious ones. Arkansas had a pretty dire non-conference slate but finally looks healthy enough to win some games, while Auburn’s KenPom star is very inflated off the back of several blowouts over unimpressive competition. This will be their first Quadrant 1 game in two months, and Bruce’s Auburn teams have had serious troubles away from home over the years. They’re 28-37-1 ATS in road games since 2017 and a nasty 15-23-1 ATS as a road favorite.
#51 Miami at #43 Wake Forest (-5), 2:15 PM ET, CW. At some point in our post-COVID world, the CW began broadcasting live sports. I don’t remember when this happened, exactly, but it feels like it began overnight. Was this formerly the ACC Network before that became its own channel? Lots of questions to ponder. Anyway, Miami needs a 1-1 or better record this week like it needs air.
#52 Nebraska at #14 Wisconsin (-9), 2:15 PM ET, BTN. Wisconsin is actually fairly fun to watch now, which is an upset greater than any 16-over-1. Nebraska is Nebraska and remains a joyous group to watch. Worth your time.
THREE STARS
#36 TCU at #13 Kansas (-8), 2 PM ET, CBS. Now that they have to play a real team, Kansas will probably play 40 actual inspired minutes for once, so I’m good. TCU is a First Four team masquerading as something more important.
#40 Providence at #17 Creighton (-7), 2 PM ET, FS1. Providence’s offense is generally nice to watch when the ball ends up in Devin Carter or Josh Oduro’s hands and generally not nice to watch otherwise. (Apologies to Bryce Hopkins but a 19% 3PT is not cutting it.) Still, this is the #4 eFG% offense versus the #4 eFG% defense. You don’t get that every day.
#15 Baylor (-7) at #97 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Other than West Virginia, who had what I’ll call ‘help’ from various sources, no Big 12 team did a better job in nuking their March hopes than Oklahoma State. I think you can deal just fine with losses to Creighton, St. Bonaventure, and Southern Illinois. But Abilene Christian and Notre Dame? A near-loss to Wofford? Come on, you’re not that uninspired or that weak. Anyway, once you do the inevitable, maybe see if Darian DeVries is interested?
NCAAW: #24 UNLV (-4.5) at #78 Colorado State, 3 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Likely the best game of the season in the Mountain West between its two best teams. I’ve talked up UNLV a good bit here but CSU has the tremendous McKenna Hofschild (23.4 PPG, 8.4 APG, 43% 3PT) on their side.
D2: #23 Gannon at #25 California (PA) (-4.5), 3 PM ET, streaming. Way, way down the list here, but if you find yourself a little bored by the other options, this is a fun one. Gannon is currently scoring an insane 114 PPG, and this is likely their toughest opponent they’ll play all year.
4-6 PM ET
FOUR STARS
D2: #7 Central Oklahoma (-2.5) at #19 Emporia State, 3:30 PM ET, MIAA Network. Yes, this is technically in the wrong section, whatever. Allow me one here. I love games between elite offenses and elite defenses, and this is what you’re getting here. Central Oklahoma might have the very best defense in Division 2, one that forces nine steals a game, blocks 14.5% of opponent two-point attempts, and is holding opponents to a 48.9% hit rate on shots in the paint.
On the other side is an Emporia State offense that maybe best resembles Nevada: low and slow with a lot of players that can attack the rim, though without much of a bench. They’re shooting 55% on twos and 78% from the line, the latter of which is a pretty big deal when you attempt 23 FTAs a night. Their defense is horrendous, but hey, one elite unit is better than zero.
#78 St. Bonaventure at #101 Richmond (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Pretty good Saturday if a game like this is getting lost in the shuffle. This goes a good way in determining who’s most likely finishing second behind Dayton in the A-10.
THREE STARS
#92 Duquesne (-1) at #128 Loyola Chicago, 4 PM ET, CBSSN. This technically does too, but it’s like the discounted version of the above game. I’m out on Loyola until they either figure out how to use their offensive weapons in any meaningful way or until they change coaches.
#96 UNLV at #24 San Diego State (-12), 4 PM ET, CBS. Well, hey, not every day San Diego State gets on actual CBS. I wish UNLV were more interesting but they can make a game pretty chaotic if you let them. Still think San Diego State (aka, Jaedon LeDee) may run wild on the boards here.
6-8 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#16 Iowa State at #27 Oklahoma (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. FINALLY, after two months, two teams who played atrocious non-conference schedules finally have to face the music. I’m kidding; they play in the Big 12 so the music is always looming. I just know very little about how good or not-good these two teams are. Iowa State is 2-2 against KenPom top 100 teams and 9-0 against everyone else. Oklahoma is at least 4-1, but they’re going to make it all the way to January 10 without playing a true road game. My opinion here is that I have no real opinion on either yet, so might as well sit back and watch a good one.
THREE STARS
#79 Ole Miss at #7 Tennessee (-13), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Ole Miss is one of three undefeated teams still standing at time of production…which is funny because you would think such a team would have risen massively from their preseason KenPom ranking of #82. They have not done that. Ole Miss has played one (1) team inside the KenPom top 70 (Memphis at home) and did indeed beat them, but we know very little about these guys. Compare that to Tennessee, who played maybe the single nastiest non-conference schedule in the sport outside of SWAC teams. We know pretty well what they’ve got in the chamber.
Also, as an aside: I’ve seen a lot of people complaining about how mean old KenPom has Ole Miss all wrong. It’s all Ken’s fault that Ole Miss, who has played one good team, is barely inside the top 80. Is he wrong? Ole Miss has had the same starting five in all 13 games, and even at ‘full strength’ with their transfers available in December, they’ve played like the 43rd-best team in the sport. That’s a tiny sample aided significantly by Ole Miss shooting an unsustainable 46% from three this past month. Maybe they are underrated but we’re not talking about a top-25 team here.
#168 Cal Baptist at #107 Seattle (-8), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. No huge notes here, just the second-best team in the WAC playing a competitive home game.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#26 Utah at #4 Arizona (-9), 8 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Putting this on the Pac-12 Network is, in some facet, a crime against God Himself. I know you people have contracts with FOX and ESPN. You couldn’t grease the wheels a little here to get on ESPN2? You couldn’t beat out Ohio State and Indiana for the FOX broadcast? The undisputed world champions in worst conference leadership in sports history.
Anyway! What a game this is. These are two of the most enjoyable offenses in the sport right now, both of whom have similar offensive strengths, both of whom will have polar opposite approaches on how to stop the other. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Utah punt on OREBs here the way they did against BYU to slow down the dangerous Arizona transition attack, but at the same time, it wouldn’t shock me to see Arizona do a little of that themselves to stuff a very underrated Utah transition game.
#30 Colorado State (-1) at #57 Utah State, 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. At a fairly low period of my life in early 2022, one where I was getting pretty sick of writing about college basketball at all, I flipped on a late January Mountain West game between Colorado State and Wyoming. It went to overtime, which was nice, but what struck me is how real and uniquely good the crowds are at these games. There are plenty of good crowds in this sport, but nothing like the Mountain West. It’s perhaps the only major-ish college conference that has largely kept its identity intact over the last 20+ years.
Anyway, here’s a matchup between perhaps a top-5 offense in college basketball in Colorado State and one of the best defensive systems in the sport in Utah State. USU has highly impressed in Year One of Danny Sprinkle, who did pretty much this same thing at Montana State, but they’ve yet to face anything like CSU, who’s 11th in KenPom offensive efficiency. Their best opponent to date: Saint Louis, who’s 110th. This is a great test for both teams. God bless the Mountain West.
FOUR STARS
#41 Texas Tech at #32 Texas (-5), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. At some level this does feel like Sanford and Son after Redd Foxx left. It’s like a Dollar General version of a better thing from two years ago. Still, I adore Grant McCasland’s whole thing and look forward to seeing what he might do here. Rodney Terry, my friend, you need this win badly. Very, very badly. Do not lose this game.
THREE STARS
#29 Ohio State (-3) at #87 Indiana, 8 PM ET, FOX. Interesting in the same way that a car crash is interesting. You’re simply hoping nobody dies here.
LATE
#39 Cincinnati at #3 BYU (-11), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. No, I don’t believe BYU is the third-best team in the sport either, but innocent until proven guilty and such. You can read more about them here.
#49 Oregon at #68 Washington State (-2), 10 PM ET, ESPNU.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 7
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #12 NC State (-0.5) at #9 Virginia Tech, 12 PM ET, ACC Network. In the annals of Hoop, this is firmly under the category of Real Hoop. This game barely finished second in the running for Game of the Week, and I am well aware it’s going up against the final day of the NFL regular season, but hey: my team clinched their division two weeks ago. I got nothing to watch! So give me some Real Hoop.
Virginia Tech has spent most of last season and this season lighting nets on fire, currently shooting 38% as a team from three. They’ve got a truly elite duo in Elizabeth Kitley (19.9 PPG, 11.4 RPG) and Georgia Amoore (16.8 PPG, 7.3 APG), the latter of which dropped 31 on Iowa back in November and 25 on LSU a few weeks later. NC State has more depth but fewer outright stars. That being said, their defense is likely the best unit either team has, one holding opponents to an absurd 34% on twos. Great, great game between two terrific coaches and programs.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #35 Mississippi State at #1 South Carolina (-22.5), 1 PM ET, ESPN. This will almost certainly be a blowout, which is what it is. Still, Mississippi State shoots 38% from three on relatively low volume. If they up it a bit and sustain the hit rate, this could be interesting. If not, just another data point in the “South Carolina is unstoppable” narrative.
THREE STARS
#105 UMass at #37 Dayton (-10), 1 PM ET, ESPN2. Dayton has quietly made it to #2 in the nation in 3PT% at almost 42%, which could go one of two ways. Either you’re a believer or that percentage is coming way down. We’ll see. That being said, one thing Anthony Grant does pretty well is win as a home favorite; he is 14-8 ATS as a 5+ point home fave post-COVID.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#55 Indiana State (-2) at #109 Northern Iowa, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. REAL HOOP. I’m yelling it at you now. This is the best shooting offense in the entire sport taking on a Northern Iowa defense that exists in name only. This is also an Indiana State defense that’s looked wobbly taking on a Northern Iowa offense that looks as good as it has in years. Whoever wins, we (the viewers) win.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #4 Utah (-3.5) at #39 Arizona, 2 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Utah post-Kneepkens injury has been a different team, not really in a good way…I think they might be a little overhyped here. Still, I love their program as a whole, and this is going to be a fun and competitive game.
THREE STARS
#72 Drake (-4) at #149 Belmont, 3 PM ET, ESPN2. This will be the most offense the city of Nashville has seen on a Sunday afternoon in ages.
NCAAW: #10 LSU (-5.5) at #50 Ole Miss, 3 PM ET, ESPN. LSU has recovered well from their opening night shocker against Colorado, but little else about their performance has been terribly reassuring. I kind of think their defense might suck, or at least it has at various points over the last two months.
4-6 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#20 Michigan State (-2) at #58 Northwestern, ???, BTN. I have no idea when this game gets played, because the Big Ten is helpfully not setting game times for these and several other games until like five days out. Love turning basketball into football. Anyway, this is technically KenPom’s game of the day, but I can’t get behind a game between these two offenses as being the game of the day. Still good, but not that good.
NCAAW: #8 Indiana (-4.5) at #32 Nebraska, ???, BTN. Couldn’t tell you what time this one’s at, either. It just got thrown in the bin here. Whenever it gets played, it’s a game between two offenses that play extremely fun styles and two defenses that can look a little wobbly depending on the night. Should have a good amount of buckets here.
#50 SMU at #33 Memphis (-6), 5 PM ET, ESPN. An actual game time! Unbelievable. SMU is the only non-FAU/Memphis team in the AAC with a prayer of being an at-large thanks to a defense that ranks 4th in 2PT% allowed and 8th in 3PT%. The problem is that they have zero good wins. The best thus far is a road win at a bad Florida State team whose coach is probably retiring in three months. This would be a legitimate Statement Win for them. Memphis can afford a loss here because it’s ahead of schedule resume-wise, but some of their performances against less-talented opponents have been worrying.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #36 Oregon State at #11 UCLA (-9.5), 4 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
NCAAW: #46 Washington at #2 Stanford (-17.5), 4 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. These are close enough to being the same game that I don’t mind grouping them together. Both road teams here could really use a signature win to build their at-large resumes, while both home favorites are building strongly towards seasons that are reflective of Final Four and/or national championship hopefuls. Pac-12 women’s hoops this year is better than any other conference.
NCAAW: #33 North Carolina at #7 Notre Dame (-8.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. If the 4 PM NFL games blow or something - always a possibility - then flip to this for a minute. Even if Notre Dame wins by 15 or something, you’ve gotta see Hannah Hidalgo do her thing. This is a top-5 player in the sport right now, one with perhaps the most insane statline I have ever seen: 24.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.2 APG, and 6.1 steals per game. 6.1 STEALS PER GAME. Do you know how hard that is to do? Most players don’t get six steals in a month. Hidalgo is doing it every single game. She got 12 steals in a game this year! This is a true freshman who somehow was not the #1 recruit in her class. Marvelous, marvelous thing to be doing.