2022-23 Tennessee basketball preview: frontcourt

They can still make the whole place shimmer

If you missed yesterday’s post about the backcourt, read that first. Alternately, if you just like big boys, this is the post for you.

Tennessee’s frontcourt has been a source of general grumbling and rabble for a while now. The most recent out-and-out centers have been Kyle Alexander and John Fulkerson, a pair of players that were above-average SEC starters but also more toothpick-like than bowling ball. The best frontcourt player under Rick Barnes was Grant Williams, a player that is now most known for shooting threes with the Boston Celtics as a small forward/stretch 4 type. Others have popped up in spare time, of course, but the last time Tennessee had a capital-C Center you could count on was when Jarnell Stokes was on campus.

All of this isn’t necessarily a problem. Tennessee under Barnes has won lots of games without a real center. They’ve had bigs that weren’t shooters, obviously, but as last season wound down they began to evolve into finding more four-guard/wing lineups and relying less on double-big pairings. They’ll likely do the same this year, given the amount of talent returning, but this year’s frontcourt figures to be versatile in a way previous ones haven’t.

Barnes has voiced this in the media this offseason, noting that Tennessee may well close a game with Josiah-Jordan James at center, something that would’ve been inconceivable even a year ago. (Worth noting Tennessee did close a few games with 6’6” Yves Pons at center in the COVID year, obviously.) Classifying the players then becomes a bit difficult, so I’ve opted not to go true power forward/center. These guys will play a few different roles; which ones end up being best for them will remain to be seen.

STRETCH 4 TYPES

Josiah-Jordan James
Julian Phillips
Olivier Nkamhoua

Something that’s emerged over the last five years of Tennessee basketball - i.e., the best five-year stretch in terms of regular season success since I have been alive - has been this sort of tweener figure that doesn’t really look like a traditional small forward or a power forward and just sort of bounces between both positions. At an earlier point in basketball history this player could’ve had a misguided career; now we just call them “stretch fours” and go on with our collective day.

Tennessee’s last few teams under Rick Barnes have had two developmental recruits in the 100s in their respective classes turn into NBA players of some sort in this role. It was first Grant Williams from 2017-2019, who became the SEC Player of the Year. Then it was Yves Pons from 2019-2021 as he became the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Now, after about 1.5 years of figuring out what position actually fit for a guy who can arguably defend all five, Josiah-Jordan James enters his senior year as a locked-in starter who fits best as this stretch four.

James’ career at Tennessee has been a strange yet great one: a five-star recruit who fans initially hoped would simply stay for a second year turns out to come in far below expectation offensively and can play three positions but doesn’t totally fit in any of them. After an injury to Tennessee’s starter, he even becomes a part-time point guard. James bounces in and out of the starting lineup, never really getting in a groove shooting-wise, but continues to be one of Tennessee’s most important pieces, particularly on defense. Then, as if a switch was magically flipped, he goes supernova in the final two months of his junior year:

Okay, supernova’s aggressive, but I needed to hook you in. The game immediately before the first one in this screenshot was a road fixture at Texas that made everyone mad and no one happy. James missed a potential game-winning three as the buzzer sounded that would’ve pulled off an improbable comeback. Everyone was furious that it was James who shot the ball and not one of the Real Shooters. The problem: James went 3-for-7 from deep that night. Everyone else: 2-for-11.

All this did was suddenly unlock something in James that fans had hoped to see for 2.5 seasons. From February 1 onward, James averaged 13.9 PPG/6.5 RPG with 48/38 shooting splits. Alongside Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi, they formed Tennessee’s Big Three that turned a relatively moribund and boring Good Team into an all-time beloved one. James became a genuinely fabulous two-way player that unlocked everything Tennessee needed. Per Hoop-Explorer, with James on the court at any position last year, Tennessee outscored opponents by 18 points per 100 possessions; when he was off, that number fell to 11.1.

Once the calendar hit February, that figure became even more extreme. James only got to spend a game and a half sharing the floor in that time with Olivier Nkamhoua, his (and every Tennessee fan’s) preferred partner at the 5. Even so, the staff clearly found something when using James in a perfectly even split between the 3 and 4. James’ On/Off rating was a tremendous +18.1 in those final two months, meaning Tennessee was 18 points better with him on the court than the scant minutes he was off. It certainly lines up with the eye test.

With a fully healthy Nkamhoua back, Tennessee’s main center of John Fulkerson now playing professional basketball, and a legitimate small forward/wing type on the roster, James now gets to play at his best position the majority of the time. Let’s pull those stats from the backcourt preview again: 

• JJJ at the 4: 119.5 Schedule-Adjusted Offensive Rating (ORTG), 84.2 Schedule-Adjusted Defensive Rating (DRTG) (+35.3)

• JJJ at the 3: 112.2 ORTG, 85.2 DRTG (+27.0)

The key difference there is the offense. James being at the 4 with three shooters surrounding him is Tennessee’s best offensive option, full stop. Tennessee basically had no real upgrade on three-point shooting in either direction and it didn’t matter; the James-at-the-4 lineups got better shots, got to the free throw line a lot more, and turned it over less. Also, they were still kicking rear on defense, so there was that. James’ own shot selection was even much better with these lineups. 84.4% of all of his shots were either at the rim or from three, compared to 62.4% when he was at the 3.

I don’t think Rick Barnes and his staff are ignoring that. Whether or not they’re as analytically-inclined as I’d like is sort of besides the point. When you see it with your own eyes and you do it for 53% of all offensive possessions in the SEC championship game, it’s pretty obvious that you approve of the concept. Do I think James should spend the entire year playing exclusively at the 4? No, because Tennessee’s other options here can shoot a little better than what we’re used to. But I do think that, at least for on-court time, Tennessee should aim for a split that’s at least 65% at the 4 or higher.

James is what will make this team tick, for better or for worse. You’ll have to live with the off shooting nights or games where he somehow only scores five points despite playing 36 minutes. He’s out there because in terms of all-around value, he may be unmatched on this roster.

Julian Phillips is listed here because he is 6’8” and everyone will look at that and say “well you should play power forward, Julian.” And maybe he really should, but given that seemingly everyone in the recruiting world (and Rick Barnes) agrees that Phillips is a 3 first and a 4 second, maybe we should hold our collective horses.

Phillips’ minutes at the 4 can prove really useful because it allows him to have a chance to use his size in a meaningful way while more or less retaining the same shooting split we’re all hoping for. We’re sort of projecting on a wing and a prayer here, but Phillips’ data from 2021 AAU ball on Synergy is what I’d deem exciting. The amount of players that produce a play type profile this diverse is extremely small:

Phillips probably cannot sustain that exact same rate in college, but it gives you an idea of why Barnes likes him so much and why he’ll be playing the 4 some. He appears to be a monster on the boards, is a great off-ball cutter, can handle the ball well, posts up from time to time, and clearly has a real effect in ball screens. Something I’d caution against here is relying on the back two too heavily. Phillips was alright posting the ball up but shot just 1-for-11 as the roll man. The good news, of course, is that’s a tiny sample.

The best reason to play him a lot, even at the 4, will be that his most likely shot split will be a median of JJJ/Nkamhoua while also being an electric dunker. A hilarious 24 of Phillips’ 204 shot attempts charted by Synergy were dunks, and the power that a guy like this seems able to provide at the rim is reason enough to have him out there.

The previously-mentioned Nkamhoua gets all of his run in the next section because I am not yet convinced he is a true Stretch 4, but he began edging his way in that direction last year when he went 13-for-29 from three in his three-month season. I’d like to see Nkamhoua at least double that number this year, because it opens up what Tennessee can do offensively in a way we really haven’t seen since Williams and Schofield if not Wayne Chism.

POWER FORWARDS/SMALL-BALL CENTERS

Olivier Nkamhoua
Josiah-Jordan James

Tennessee has generally started what we’d call a True Big under Rick Barnes. They’ve also generally had better options for that role than they do entering 2022-23. The progression of these options has generally become less great - Kyle Alexander begat John Fulkerson who begat Uros Plavsic - so Tennessee’s best outcome, at least in my view, is to start a guy that some older-school commentators view more as a 4.

So here we are in Year Four with Olivier Nkamhoua and I think I’m finally ready to buy in. Nkamhoua made it to Tennessee not unlike some of the recruits everyone has grown to love: a late-riser in his class largely viewed as underrated. Tennessee, at the time, believed they’d gotten a significant steal. The famous comparison via a beat writer at the time was that Nkamhoua could be the next Grant Williams with appropriate seasoning and buildup.

That obviously hasn’t happened yet. Nkamhoua sputtered for two seasons before finally rising up to the level of solid SEC starter last year. He’s always been very solid defensively, but 2021-22 was the first time at Tennessee where his offensive play did not look like someone was pulling the SpongeBob bit of explaining to him what basketball was via an earpiece. The step up everyone was rooting for did really happen: 13-for-29 from three (1-for-5 in his career previously), a terrific 6.4% block rate, a much higher Usage Rate, and a variety of other improvements.

The problem, as it has been forever, was consistency. Nkamhoua scored 15+ points five different times, but he also scored 3 or fewer points five different times, too. Against eight opponents outside of Torvik’s Top 100, Nkamhoua made 65% of his twos; in 14 games against the Top 100, Nkamhoua made just 41%. For some games it’s as easy as looking as his minutes: 13 against Texas Tech, 16 against Kentucky, 16 against LSU.

And yet: Nkamhoua’s two best performances of the season against Top 100 opponents came in his final two games, when he went for 15/7/3 blocks against future NIT runner-up Texas A&M and 9/5/2 blocks in 17 minutes against South Carolina. Everyone around the program has continuously stated for years, including people who aren’t even in the program anymore, that Nkamhoua is routinely a standout in practice and in lower-level games. It’s on Nkamhoua to carry that over to the rest of the schedule.

Why Nkamhoua needs to start, in as much as he needs to, is a case best made with stats. Also vibes, but this is a statistics site first. Vibes later. Anyway, these are Tennessee’s offensive splits up to and including Nkamhoua’s final game of the year, per Hoop-Explorer.

• WITH Nkamhoua at center (161 possessions): 118.8 Schedule-Adjusted Offensive Rating (ORTG), 50.3% eFG%, 18.6% TO%, 36.8% OREB%, 30.6% FTR

• WITHOUT Nkamhoua at center (1365 possessions): 112.4 ORTG, 51.2% eFG%, 18.3% TO%, 32.6% OREB%, 26.6% FTR

That’s an offense that’s over six points better per 100 possessions, and this is without adjusting said stats for three-point shooting luck. If you do that then the offense becomes over ten points better. This is all without touching that the defense is about 3-4 points better, too. When Nkamhoua played at center, Tennessee had its closest thing to a death lineup it could possibly conjure. Imagine a lineup with Zeigler/Vescovi/Key or Phillips/James/Nkamhoua. That’s the best you’re getting this year, and it’s really fascinating to think about.

These lineups are the best way to utilize what’s frankly a very strange player. Nkamhoua is a fabulous rim-protecting center and Tennessee’s best rebounder. He also doesn’t play like a center otherwise and attempted two fewer threes than Grant Williams did in his final season. I figure Tennessee hopes to use him in a variety of ways; I’m simply excited to see this guy back on the court. Here’s hoping this is the true breakout season, i.e. becoming a legitimate 26-30 minute-a-night player that plays like a borderline All-SEC guy.

One final note: among NCAA Tournament players that have this PF/C player role type in 2021-22 (48 total), Nkamhoua’s three-point attempt rate of 19.2 per 100 field goal attempts was actually quite progressive, sitting 14th overall. Given that he hit 44.8% of those and shot well for Finland’s national team this summer as well, there’s a real argument to get Nkamhoua up to two three-point attempts a game. I feel that’s an appropriate ask.

I had no plans of listing Josiah-Jordan James here originally because he is not a center, period, but Rick Barnes went and told the media that Tennessee was frequently experimenting with five-guard lineups throughout fall camp. That would obviously include James, so here we are.

James played at center for 11 possessions last season, per Hoop-Explorer. Tennessee almost never broke this feature out because they rarely needed to, but it was there. They ran it for six possessions across two games against Arkansas when Jaylin Williams went to the bench and Arkansas played small. Otherwise, it was not pulled off the shelf. Identifying anything of real note from 11 possessions of data is not smart, so we will not be doing that.

This is the vibes section. Do I want to see a five-guard lineup? Sure, why not. Do I think that Tennessee really needs to do that against most opponents? Probably not. There’s a reason the Death Lineup was only deployed in less than half of Golden State’s games. Still, this is an option Tennessee can explore against a few different teams, and at that time we can determine if we want to see more of it.

TRUE BIGS

Uros Plavsic
Jonas Aidoo
Tobe Awaka

Here’s a collection of talented players, none of whom have shown the stuff necessary to be one of the five or six most talented players on the team. That’s fine; Tennessee does not need a purely True Big to achieve their wildest dreams in March/April 2023. Kansas played a 6’8” guy who took 114 threes at center a third of the time. Villanova’s center was a 6’8” bowling ball that shot 49% from deep. Gonzaga and Baylor both had small-ball centers to play with. So on and so on, on it goes.

This is my way of getting across that even though it will make older-school observers annoyed, Tennessee does not project to need any of these three guys (particularly the back-end talent) to play more than 13-15 minutes a night. Matchups may dictate that one of the top two play more or less against certain opponents, just like they did last year. I still do not believe that, come February/March, any of these three will belong in Tennessee’s closing lineup against an average high-end team. We’ll see.

I don’t think this is settled by any means, but the most likely outcome is that Jonas Aidoo rises from this position battle to be the main backup big. Aidoo basically didn’t touch the court whatsoever until Nkamhoua’s February 5th injury. Overnight, he became a key member of the rotation for a month. By season’s end, he fell out, totaling just 12 minutes of on-court action in Tennessee’s final three games.

I can’t say I was totally against that. Aidoo was frankly pretty horrible offensively. Any center who statistically tracks as a center yet shoots 32.5% on 40 two-point attempts simply isn’t there yet. He was also a foul machine (5.1 per 40) and didn’t really showcase much in terms of passing ability. The positives: he was a demolition derby on the boards and proved to be a terrific shot-blocker, registering three in a memorable home victory over future 15-seed loser Kentucky.

Aidoo enters his second year of college basketball; Uros Plavsic technically enters his fifth, though it’s his fourth where he’s actually been able to play. Plavsic was the superior player last year and was frankly a better offensive option, which is not something anyone would have imagined at the start of the season. You look at that and you say that Plavsic should probably be first on this list. So why am I giving Aidoo the smallest of edges in terms of where they’ll be in March?

Two key reasons: upside and rim protection. Aidoo is three years younger and offered a superior recruiting profile. He was precisely as good on the boards as Plavsic was last year despite being smaller while turning it over half as often and blocking far more shots per 40. Plavsic was much better as a scoring option and screener, but you can chalk at least some of that up to Aidoo literally not being part of the plan until he was required to be part of the plan.

Some of this dates back to said recruiting profile. Aidoo obviously didn’t shoot well last year, but he at least attempted nine jump shots and made 14 of his 17 free throws. The shooting ability does seem to be there somewhere. (Since I wrote this back in early October, Aidoo nailed a three in an exhibition game against Gonzaga.) Meanwhile, Plavsic has attempted one (1) jumper in three years of college basketball. Aidoo’s also been working on developing his outside jumper in the offseason. I wouldn’t be shocked if Plavsic has attempted to do the same, but pardon me if I simply believe Aidoo can do it a lot better than Plavsic.

Still, Plavsic is going to play, and it will not be that surprising if he ends up playing more minutes than Aidoo. Plavsic has two extra years of experience in Barnes’ demanding defensive system and largely held his own in it last year despite flashing no real skill as a shot blocker for his size. Plavsic basically cannot shoot a basketball any further than 8-10 feet from the rim and, as mentioned, doesn’t attempt jump shots whatsoever. He is the truest of true bigs. That will still have value off the bench.

Last year, Plavsic made 65% of his attempts at the rim and 58% of twos overall, both solid numbers. He got fouled a ton and was good for about 1.5 free throw attempts per game. Whether you love his game or don’t, it’s hard to deny his value as a screener and particularly as a rebounder, where he used his size to real effect. Aidoo stopped playing in the month of March largely because Plavsic was delivering the best and most consistent two-way play of his career.

If Plavsic really can build on that, he’s your backup big and will be playing 15 minutes a night. If what he is is closer to his November-February value, that number is more like 8-10 minutes a night if not lower.

Tobe Awaka was a Zakai Zeigler recommendation based on AAU familiarity and he seems like a worthy flier. Awaka is 6’8”, 240 but profiles as a True Big; across two summers of EYBL play as charted by Synergy, Awaka took 148 two-pointers to two threes, and both of those threes were desperation attempts at the end of a quarter. Awaka has not flashed much in the way of a jumper and largely just bullied opponents in the paint. 

He led all players in the EYBL in rebounding, was the Gatorade Player of the Year in New York, and reminds me a lot of the last wave of board-killing bigs from 2012-2014 that always seemed to pop up. If you remember the names Kennedy Meeks, Rico Gathers, or Jarnell Stokes, this guy is for you. I cannot imagine Awaka playing that much given who’s ahead of him, but if he sticks it out at Tennessee I think they’ve got something real to work with here.

I’ll go on record with a silly and minor prediction: against one of Tennessee’s buy game opponents, he posts a hilarious statline like five rebounds in six minutes.