A 2023-24 conference play primer for all 32 conferences
Hope you like reading because I'm now on the 15-day DL with carpal tunnel
The new year: the perfect time to recycle old ideas! I did this last year, and in my hubris, I was like “let’s do that again.” Then I was like “oh yeah, that was a ton of work and I was not very happy at the end of it.” But I don’t let little things like “priors” or “obvious evidence” stop me. This train is full speed ahead, baby.
Anyway, the below post is going to be very, very long, so if that’s not your thing, I will not blame you for CTRL + F'ing your league of choice and/or exiting out of this post immediately. Still, as someone who covers college basketball at-large, I do find it useful to see where everyone’s at a hair over two months before Selection Sunday.
This year we’re switching it up a little bit. There’s the national side of things for leagues who have 2+ bid potential, where we’re measuring teams that are LOCKS (>95% likely to make the NCAAT, per Bart Torvik), LIKELIES (70-95%), BUBBLES (30-70%), UNLIKELIES (5-30%), and MAYBE NEXT YEARS (0-5%).
Then there’s the regional side for all 32 leagues. This will represent the conference’s FAVORITES (those with 25% or better odds of at least a shared title), DARKHORSES (10-25%), and WILDCARDS (5-10%). You don’t need to know those at 4.9% or lower barring a real shocker.
Now!
Let’s go. This is a free post, because there’s not really any original research going on here; it’s more like a compilation. That’s an awful sell, but considering >80% of posts here are behind a paywall I do think signing up is well worth it.
All percentages seen below are courtesy of Bart Torvik’s website, one of the greatest blessings on this earth.
5+ bid leagues
Big 12
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Houston (100%), BYU (99.9%), Kansas (99.6%), Iowa State (97.2%), Baylor (95.1%)
LIKELIES: Oklahoma (86.6%)
BUBBLES: Texas (61.2%), Texas Tech (56%), TCU (53.1%), Cincinnati (50.8%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: UCF, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Expected tournament teams: 8.1 (#1 nationally)
Unsurprisingly, for the millionth year in a row, this is the top dog among basketball conferences. The Big 12 is likely to have at least one 1 seed, with Houston the obvious leader in the clubhouse, but Kansas lurks behind for whenever they’d like to actually play a 40-minute game. All of those locks are most likely to be 5 seeds or better come March, but there’s a lot of variance involved, of course. Oklahoma played a meh non-con so I don’t feel like we know much about them, but they’re well above water at the moment thanks to wins over Providence and Arkansas.
The bubble teams are of most interest. Technically, since all are >50% to make the Tournament, you would say that the Big 12 could get 10 teams in. It’s gonna be really hard for all four to survive the meat grinder of conference play, though. Instead, they could do something they’ve never done as a conference, which is 8 or more bids. The Big East’s record of 11 teams in one year is out of play, though.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25% or above): Houston (76.1%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): BYU (24.2%)
Wildcards (5% or above): Kansas (6.6%), Iowa State (5%)
Let it be known that I don’t believe in Kansas barely scraping onto this list; they have clearly stopped caring (wonder which player that comes from!) until games matter again. They’ve nuked their metrics but it’s Kansas, I highly doubt they care. I’m anticipating that this is a two-month battle between them and Houston for the title.
Beyond that, this figures to be fairly chaotic. I have BYU finishing third in this conference metrics-wise (something like 11th-16th feels accurate), but the seven-pack from Iowa State through Cincinnati genuinely could finish in any order. I like this Iowa State team a lot but don’t believe their offensive turnaround yet because they’ve played an awful schedule. Baylor’s defense is atrocious and their metrics are inflated by an unsustainable 3PT%. I don’t like Texas’s vibes at all. Same for TCU. Texas Tech is frisky but unproven. Oklahoma is good but a little chaotic. Any order of teams from 4-10, all of whom are going to finish between 7-11 and 11-7, sounds realistic.
Predictions!
CHAMPION: Houston takes the title at 15-3, beating out 14-4 Kansas.
TOURNAMENT: Nine teams get in: those top six along with Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech. Cincinnati is the odd team out.
SUPER DARKHORSE: If their offensive improvement is real, then Iowa State at 5% is a heck of a bet. Three of their top comps, per Torvik, are 2020-21 Arkansas, 2021-22 Arkansas, and 2017-18 Texas Tech: all teams that got way better once conference play began.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: BYU at Baylor, January 9. I mean, how real are these guys? This is one of our first chances to find out. I’m saying this about both teams, by the way.
SEC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Tennessee (99.9%), Auburn (99.8%), Alabama (99.4%), Kentucky (97.2%)
LIKELIES: Texas A&M (91.3%), Florida (82.6%), Mississippi State (77.5%)
BUBBLES: South Carolina (30.9%), Mississippi (29.1%)
UNLIKELIES: Arkansas (5.1%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Georgia, Missouri, LSU, Vanderbilt
Expected tournament teams: 7.1 (#2 nationally)
The top group of the SEC is packed with teams that I’m not sure anyone thinks of as a top-5 team but everyone thinks of as one of the 6th-15th best teams, which completes the SEC’s transformation into the Big Ten. World’s best cup of coffee! You did it!
This is only a partially unserious part, because while I’m uncertain that the SEC has a true national title contender this year - it really might be Tennessee who has the best shot - they do have several Final Four contenders. All of those top four count. I’m still a believer in A&M, too, though I’m begging them to learn how to shoot a basketball between now and March. Florida will get in; State should get in.
Then it’s on the conference to find an eighth team, a thing they’ve only done twice before. South Carolina had a terrific non-con run and currently sits at +1.3 Wins Above Bubble, a top-30 mark in the sport. I think if they get to 9-9 or better in SEC play they’re gonna be above the cutline. Ole Miss went 13-0 against an atrocious non-con schedule; I need to see them go 9-9 as well too to think they’re getting in. (I am not a believer here at all, for the record.)
Then there’s Arkansas. Inarguably, they had a poor non-conference performance, with the most obvious blemish being a Quadrant 4 home loss to UNC Greensboro. They beat Duke at home, but that’s the only Q1/Q2 win they got out of four opportunities. They’ll need to finish above .500 in SEC play to have a shot. But I just don’t think I’m in on 5% to make it. It’s Muss. Why would I bet against him?
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Alabama (44%), Auburn (33.5%), Tennessee (27.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): Kentucky (12%)
Wildcards (5%): Texas A&M (6.7%), Florida (6%)
I think the winner of this conference has to get to 15-3 to do it but they’re going to have received a couple of gifts to get there. This is a crazy hard conference to win in, but someone’s gotta do it, so we’ll see.
The real race here is generally for the double-bye in the SEC Tournament. I think those top three are all >80% to at least do that; beyond that it is a real toss-up. The obvious #4 here should be Kentucky (I’d have them at 70% or so?) but there have been some really weird #4s in years past. Last year, a Missouri team that finished 57th in KenPom was top four! In 2018-19, #70 South Carolina got a double-bye. Weird things happen here, so don’t blame me when #35 Florida somehow gets fourth.
CHAMPION: Tennessee and Auburn split the regular season title at 14-4. Alabama’s schedule is *really* tough and I think it trips them up one more time than those two.
TOURNAMENT: The current top seven teams get in. Arkansas fights their way back to a bubble spot by going 18-13, 9-9 but comes up just short, ending up an NIT 1 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Texas A&M has a current 3PT% delta of -7.6%, which is so unbelievably bad for a team of their caliber that I have no choice but to bet on them overachieving going forward.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Alabama at Tennessee, January 20. This is the first in the round-robin between Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn and could go a long way in determining the regular season champ.
Big East
NATIONAL
LOCKS: UConn (99.9%), Marquette (99.8%), Creighton (98.3%), Villanova (96.4%)
LIKELIES: St. John’s (76.2%)
BUBBLES: Providence (49.3%)
UNLIKELIES: Xavier (26.7%), Butler (17.9%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown
Expected tournament teams: 5.7 (#3 nationally)
As usual, a good group of teams here for an 11-team conference. I don’t think there’s anything really shocking here, either. Barring an under or overperformance in conference play, UConn and Marquette will be somewhere in the 1-3 seed range. Creighton could get there if they really push it, but they’ve probably played themselves into a 3-5 seed. Villanova actually…looks good? I think?
The rest of this is pretty questionable. Providence’s resume took a giant hit with an awful home loss to Seton Hall, but they also (fill in Bryce Hopkins status). St. John’s is rapidly coming around but still has a pair of nasty losses to Michigan and Boston College to erase. Xavier and Butler are frisky but unlikely to do much with/about it.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): UConn (35.1%), Marquette (33.7%), Villanova (30.3%)
Darkhorses (10%): Creighton (16.4%), St. John’s (13.6%)
This more or less feels right, but I have to admit I’m holding back on buying fully into Villanova. I get it because they’ve now beaten Texas Tech, UNC, Memphis, and Creighton. They also lost to Penn, Saint Joe’s, Drexel, and a bad Kansas State team. What are you, exactly? Chaotic as they are, I feel like the true answer is probably that of a low-end top 25 team. A classic 5 or 6 seed, I guess.
The race further down in the standings is of interest. No, not the 4-9 race: who finishes last between DePaul and Georgetown? The obvious edge must be given to DePaul, who is playing some of the worst basketball I have ever seen in my life. That being said, Georgetown is almost precisely as bad as they were last year, a season in which they went 2-18 in Big East play. Whoever wins, we lose.
CHAMPION: UConn and Marquette split the regular season title, satisfying no one. Creighton makes a raging comeback to get to 14-6.
TOURNAMENT: Six teams get in: those top five and Providence, who manages to avoid the First Four by a hair. Xavier wins the NIT.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. Everyone’s more or less properly rated. Please put me on record as saying Butler will pull off two wins against the top four teams somewhere along the line. (January 27 vs. Villanova and February 13 vs. Marquette. You’re welcome!)
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Connecticut at Marquette, March 6. This genuinely could be the title-deciding game. Here’s hoping, because that would be a blast.
Big Ten
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Purdue (100%), Illinois (99.6%), Wisconsin (97.4%), Michigan State (95.6%), Ohio State (94.7%)
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: Nebraska (34.1%)
UNLIKELIES: Northwestern (8.8%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Penn State
Expected tournament teams: 5.4 (#4 nationally)
Have you guys seen the new hot meme? The new, horrifyingly accurate one? It’s Steve Harvey reading off a response on Family Feud, a show that I’m not sure I’ve seen a full episode of since I was 10 but have probably seen about half an episode of maybe 70 times over the last five years. It is always on somehow and always on before something else I’d prefer to watch. It’s like how I always saw the final three minutes of Suits before new episodes of Mr. Robot would premiere.
Anyway, the meme.
I mean, truly. What an awful conference this is in 2023-24. You have the leader in the clubhouse for the overall #1 seed in Purdue, so it’s not all bad, but you really might get just five NCAA Tournament teams from this conference. FIVE. You have 14 teams here. You have 18 next year. What are the incoming teams so afraid of? After years of defending this, and I still will, I’m about out of energy. It’s like watching this year’s Big Ten football: you have interesting games between around 3-5 of the teams in the conference. The rest may as well not happen.
The good news for these guys is that barring a severe shocker, they do have five teams that are locks to get in, one of whom may be the overall #1 seed. All of them should be 7 seeds or better. You’ll have five of the top 28 teams! It’s not all bad! Just do not ask about anything else here, unless it’s about Nebraska.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Purdue (73.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): Illinois (23.5%), Wisconsin (10.2%)
Wildcards (5%): Ohio State (7.7%), Michigan State (6.5%)
This is a pretty easy one to dissect. Purdue is going to have to work hard to not come home with a regular season banner, especially given Illinois’ uncertainty with Terrence Shannon at the moment. Wisconsin is an intriguing darkhorse here but has regularly been far worse away from home, which is a problem when you have ten road games in conference play.
The most interesting thing here then becomes who gets the double-byes for the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue is a lock. Illinois would be, but I’m not so sure given their uncertainty. Then what? One of Wisconsin, OSU, or Michigan State will not get the double-bye, and it’s not a guarantee that someone like Nebraska (29% shot, per Torvik) doesn’t jump up and steal one of those spots.
CHAMPION: Purdue takes the regular season title at 17-3 and locks up the overall #1 seed before the B1G Tournament even begins.
TOURNAMENT: Six teams get in: the top five and our beloved baby boys, Nebraska.
SUPER DARKHORSE: It’s obviously Michigan State at 6.5%. I’ll believe they’re dead for a Big Ten title when I see it. They’re 0-2 right now, of course, but given that they seemed to have turned a corner, a surprise second-place finish at 14-6 or something wouldn’t be a stunner. Beyond that, Iowa is always good for ruining someone’s day.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Ohio State at Nebraska, January 23. Weird flex, but hear me out: Nebraska needs to win games like this to get over the hump. I want to make it clear that I am rooting for Nebraska to make the NCAA Tournament. Why would you not do such a thing? A win here will go a long way come March.
ACC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: North Carolina (99.9%), Clemson (99.7%), Duke (98.4%)
LIKELIES: Miami (77.2%)
BUBBLES: Virginia (43.1%), Wake Forest (30.2%)
UNLIKELIES: Pittsburgh (20.9%), Virginia Tech (17.6%), NC State (6%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Syracuse, Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville
Expected tournament teams: 5 (#5 nationally)
Well, whatever. Every time you talk about this league its defenders jump down your throat to let you know you have it all wrong, so I’ll pass on making any sweeping judgments here. Instead, it’s worth noting that the ACC is actually ahead of last year, when I hated it a lot more. At least this year, you can point to those top three teams as all being pretty serious groups and/or Final Four contenders. Yes, even Clemson!
I’m still unconvinced of Miami, who did beat Clemson this week but is enjoying an extraordinary +14.4% 3PT% gap at the moment. Considering there wasn’t a single team in 2022-23 to even go above an +8% gap for the full season, I’m betting on serious regression coming their way. But: someone’s gotta make the Tournament. I don’t doubt that this conference will receive more bids than it deserves, as is tradition.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): North Carolina (50.2%), Clemson (31.4%)
Darkhorses (10%): Duke (23%), Miami (15%)
Wildcards (5%): none
For what it’s worth, I can’t get behind Duke all the way down at just 23%. Too much talent. I think it’s a two-horse race between them and UNC for the ACC title. I do still believe in Clemson, for the record! Just maybe not as a clear top-two group.
Beneath that, the top four race is going to be wild. All of UNC/Clemson/Duke are >80% to get one of the double-byes, but all of Miami, Virginia, Wake, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh are between 15% and 65% to get a double-bye. One of them is required to get a top-four spot! Whoever gets it has probably gotten very lucky in conference play, which is totally fine.
The other race is even more exciting: who finishes last between Notre Dame and Louisville? The Irish are far less talented, but Louisville is far less well-coached. Notre Dame also has a conference win already, which gives them a leg up. I’d anticipate both finish with around 2-4 conference wins.
CHAMPION: UNC and Duke split the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: Five teams get in: 3 seeds UNC and Duke, 5 seed Clemson, 10 seed Miami…and First Four team Wake Forest!
SUPER DARKHORSE: I am pretty scared of Pittsburgh, who feels like an agent of chaos. They’ve benefitted from some serious defensive 3PT% luck but build a massive advantage on the boards every game, which makes them a bad matchup for Miami. They also attempt a ton of threes, which makes them a real shooting variance threat against UNC and Clemson. It feels like they’re going to pull off a shocker somewhere.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: North Carolina at Duke, March 9. Duh.
Mountain West
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Colorado State (99.2%), San Diego State (98.8%)
LIKELIES: Nevada (90.3%), Utah State (79.6%), New Mexico (78.4%)
BUBBLES: Boise State (37.3%)
UNLIKELIES: UNLV (6.2%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: San Jose State, Wyoming, Air Force, Fresno State
Expected tournament teams: 4.9 (#6 nationally)
What a league, dude. I love these guys. I thought this might not be a great year for the Mountain West and only saw two likely NCAA Tournament teams (SDSU, New Mexico) in the preseason. I couldn’t be happier to be wrong! This is, as of now, the only conference where every single team was above .500 in non-conference play. Some of that’s schedule-reliant, obviously, but based on Wins Above Bubble you’ve got all of those top five teams above a theoretical cutline at the moment. They’re more likely than not to put five teams in the field of 68. That’s awesome.
Now, that being said, the most likely outcome is all of those five teams being somewhere from 5-9 seeds. Colorado State and San Diego State have the best resumes, but they’re about to have several games against the bottom four that will drag down their SOS a bit. (By the way, Fresno State, please hit the reset button. Please. You need to try something new.) Still, great conference where it looks like they’re going to get no fewer than five teams. AND they might get a sixth!
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Colorado State (39.7%), San Diego State (32.2%)
Darkhorses (10%): Nevada (20.2%), Utah State (18.3%), New Mexico (16.1%), Boise State (9.6%)
Wildcards (5%): none
I mean, look at it. KenPom has the top four teams all finishing 12-6 or 13-5. It’s unlikely that any of these teams are that much better than one another. What this means is that you might not get a marquee #12 Colorado State at #15 San Diego State game, but every single week of the conference season, you’re going to have a meaningful game with a rowdy crowd that matters both regionally and nationally. That doesn’t always happen in leagues like this. In fact, it pretty much never does.
The Mountain freakin’ West baby. Anyway, I guess because I’m still committed to a prior here, I can’t shake the thought of San Diego State being the rightful minor favorite here. It’s the best overall roster with the best player on perhaps the entire west coast in Jaedon LeDee. I also think New Mexico comes in as underrated, particularly because they spent most of non-conference play missing a key starter or two in nearly every game. Now at full health, they’re going to be that much more dangerous.
A quick note here: as always, the conference tournament will be hosted by UNLV. That’s almost never given UNLV much of a leg up, but in a potential quarterfinal with 2-seed San Diego State as an example, it could be a critical factor. I still don’t make much of it, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
CHAMPION: San Diego State and Colorado State split the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: Five teams get in: San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Nevada….and Boise State. I guess I’m a little more confident that they can make it work in conference play than Utah State at the moment. I adore this USU team and love watching them play but have serious fears about their almost total lack of perimeter shooting. How are you going to score against SDSU and Nevada if you can’t shoot?
SUPER DARKHORSE: It’s still Utah State. I’m not sure I have a way to properly quantify them. They’ve overachieved preseason expectations heavily but have some metrics from ShotQuality showing they’ve almost been unlucky. (Boise State does too, though.)
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Colorado State at Utah State, January 6. I’m not sure this is the right pick but this is going to do two things for me: help me figure out how good Utah State is, and help me figure out how real Colorado State is. I feel like I’ve got a good idea but I might not.
Likely 2+ bid leagues
Pacific 12
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Arizona (100%), Utah (99.3%)
LIKELIES: Colorado (92.6%)
BUBBLES: none
UNLIKELIES: Washington (24.3%), Oregon (11.2%), Washington State (8.4%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Stanford, USC, Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon State, California
Expected tournament teams: 3.4 (#7 nationally)
What a crushing disappointment this is. A horrid, horrid way to go out in your final year. The list of teams who’ve drastically underachieved what I anticipated in the preseason is basically half the conference. The only overachiever here is Utah, a great story who looks like a 5 seed. Everyone else is either appropriately whelming (I guess I’m pretty impressed by Arizona and Colorado?) or bad. The good news is that Arizona should end up as a 1 or 2 seed and Utah appropriately believes they’ve got second weekend or further potential.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Arizona (54.2%), Utah (33.5%), Colorado (31.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): none
Again, this is functionally a three-team conference. They’ll lose games to the other nine teams because nobody’s perfect, but at season’s end there’s only going to be three meaningful teams here for anyone to care about.
I still think it’s a strong likelihood that this is Arizona’s conference to blow. Them losing to Stanford doesn’t mess with me much, because Stanford went 16-25 from three in a completely unrepeatable performance. That might happen against you once every four or five years. Utah and Colorado will put up a good fight but it’ll likely ultimately be for second place. Beyond that I’m interested to see who ends up fourth. I’d place a bet on Oregon winning that battle as of now but there are five reasonable candidates: them plus Washington, USC, Wazzu, and Stanford.
CHAMPION: Arizona wins the regular season title by two full games. We’ll say 16-4? 17-3?
TOURNAMENT: Only those top three teams get in. I’m very tempted to push in Oregon as the fourth, who I guess I like most out of the remaining nine teams. Only they and Washington feel like they’re not starting from behind, and Washington just started 0-2 in conference play.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Oregon.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Arizona at Utah, February 8 and Arizona at Colorado, February 10. This is the chance for these schools to keep pace. It’s hard to heck to beat Arizona at Arizona, so if they want a chance at a title, these are must-wins. If Arizona goes 1-1 or better the race is over. Also, what an insane 48-hour span for any team to have to do: a game at KenPom #25 followed by a game at #22.
American
NATIONAL
LOCKS: FAU (99.4%)
LIKELIES: Memphis (86.7%)
BUBBLES: SMU (33%)
UNLIKELIES: North Texas (10.8%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: the other 17 teams this conference has now
Expected tournament teams: 2.4 (#8 nationally)
All offseason I wondered a bit about how FAU would handle a step up in difficulty. They’ve somewhat aced the test by beating Arizona and Texas A&M; they have also failed it by taking bizarre losses to Bryant and FGCU. That may just be who they are all season long: great wins paired with horrid losses. Either way, they’re still technically ahead of schedule and would have to take at least two shocking upsets to fall to bubble-dom.
Memphis has the stronger resume but is universally seen by metrics systems as the lesser team. They don’t seem to have a sixth gear where they can power down and motor away from teams, and they have a nasty penchant for playing with their food. Still, they’re obviously very good. I would guess they end up a 7 or 8 seed, something like the last couple years. Beyond that, the hope is entirely reliant on an SMU team with a very thin resume. No one else stands out.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): FAU (71.8%), SMU (27.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): Memphis (12.9%)
Wildcards (5%): North Texas (8.2%)
SMU having a leg up here is very confusing to me. They’re 1-0 in AAC play; Memphis is 0-0. Is that worth the added bump? I think not, so I’d put Memphis ahead of them. Beyond that, it all lines up as I’d imagined: FAU the serious favorite, Memphis waiting in the wings in case they blow it. Given that FAU really seems to enjoy losing bizarre games, Memphis might steal this one away. Worth noting that ShotQuality has Memphis as the second-luckiest team in America, though.
CHAMPION: Florida Atlantic holds off Memphis, 15-3 to 14-4.
TOURNAMENT: FAU and Memphis get in. SMU gets a minor amount of noise for bubble purposes but ends up an NIT 3 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: TeamRankings has a Consistency Rating that’s just how consistent your performances are from game-to-game. USF is dead last in the entire country in this metric. That’s good and bad. They lost to Maine by double digits then followed that up two weeks later by beating Florida State by 16. They absolutely could pick off one of FAU/Memphis at a critical juncture of the season. They could also lose to them by 30+.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Florida Atlantic at Memphis, February 25. Not sure why we have to wait until late February for this, but hey.
1-bid leagues with the most potential to get to 2
Atlantic 10
NATIONAL
LOCKS: technically, Dayton (95.9%)
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: none
UNLIKELIES: Saint Joseph’s (23.5%), St. Bonaventure (19.8%), UMass (11.3%), Richmond (8.8%), George Mason (6.8%), Duquesne (5.6%), VCU (4.4%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: the rest
Expected tournament teams: 1.8 (#9 nationally)
I’m pleased that these guys seem to be trending in the right direction, at least somewhat. Now, a warning: of the seven teams in that Unlikelies section, only Saint Joseph’s and St. Bonaventure have >5% odds to make it as an at-large. They’re either going to need to do really well in conference play (think 14-4 or better) or have Dayton stay at their current level (that of an 8/9 seed) and win the conference tournament over them as a bid thief. The latter is more likely; even when I input 14-4 on Torvik for the Bonnies it has them as one of the First Four out. Not very secure, especially if you don’t win the A10 tourney.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Dayton (53.3%), St. Bonaventure (24.6%)
Darkhorses (10%): UMass (17.8%), Saint Joseph’s (14%), Richmond (10.1%)
Wildcards (5%): George Mason (9.3%)
This is one of those that’s actively begging for a bid thief. I don’t know how I feel about the idea of Dayton as an NCAA Tournament lock, but even a more pessimistic read of the situation still has them at, say, 70-75% to get in. Avoid any major slip-ups or Quad 3/4 losses in A10 play and you should be fine. The real test is if anyone can match them. Torvik sort of quietly has UMass as having the weakest conference slate of anyone, while Saint Joe’s is just below them. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Dayton shares or even loses the regular season title.
CHAMPION: Dayton is your sole regular season champion. Can’t really find a team I would bet on against them for a full slate.
TOURNAMENT: Because I would personally like to see this, the Atlantic 10 gets two teams in the field: 9 seed Dayton and 11 seed St. Bonaventure, who wins the conference tournament.
SUPER DARKHORSE: People are out on them for obvious reasons but I can’t shake Duquesne, who has two of the 10-15 best players in the conference and is enjoying some nasty 3PT% luck on defense at the moment. If that turns around it’s a top-75 team just sitting there in hiding.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: St. Bonaventure at Dayton, February 2. If Dayton beats UMass on Sunday and Duquesne next Friday, they quietly have a 41% chance of making it to February undefeated and 9-0 in A-10 play. This would be the start of a four-game run against the Bonnies, Saint Joe’s, VCU, and Duquesne, which would go a long way in telling us what they’ve got in the chamber.
WCC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: Gonzaga (72.1%)
BUBBLES: Saint Mary’s (59.1%)
UNLIKELIES: San Francisco (26%)
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: the rest
Expected tournament teams: 1.6 (#10 nationally)
Nothing gold stays forever; even unflappable Gonzaga must have a down year from time to time. The Zags’ spacing has partially been ruined by Steele Venters going down with a season-ending injury before the season even began, which means their current backcourt is Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, and a prayer that neither gets hurt. Graham Ike has looked terrific at center but is still plagued with foul troubles. Anton Watson is fine but simply hasn’t made the leap into stardom as was once anticipated. But: as long as they go 13-3 or better in WCC play they’ll be in yet again.
The other major star here suffered through a horrific run of play in non-con where their offense completely cratered. Saint Mary’s mostly has losses that have aged well, and a 3-4 record against Quadrants 1/2 in non-con is fine in a vacuum. When paired with home losses to Weber State and Missouri State, it’s not good. They need a serious overperformance in WCC play as does fellow bubble hopeful San Francisco. If either can crack a 14-2 or better record, I think they’re in business. If they cannot, no dice.
REGIONAL
Favorites (25%): Saint Mary’s (55.5%), Gonzaga (50.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): San Francisco (18.6%)
Wildcards (5%): none
Torvik’s system has remained bizarrely bullish on Saint Mary’s throughout every loss. I myself don’t see it, but I cede to those smarter than me. The same talent in the preseason is still there; a heavy overperformance here that leads to a draw at the top of the standings is not outlandish. Plus, it’s not as if this edition of Gonzaga is fabulous, either. That’s a team headed for a 10 or 11 seed if they don’t figure things out.
CHAMPION: Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s tie at the top at 14-2 yet again. San Francisco does well but goes 1-3 against that group and settles at 12-4.
TOURNAMENT: For the first time since 2018, the WCC only gets one team in the field: Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s is the first team out.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. Only the top three are inside the top 150 at ShotQuality right now. I’ll pass.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Saint Mary’s at San Francisco, January 20. This is the first in the three-team round-robin. This is also an absolute must-win for both teams. Desperate games like this sell.
Everyone else
America East
Favorites (25%): UMass Lowell (51.3%), Vermont (39.4%)
Darkhorses (10%): Bryant (20.4%)
Wildcards (5%): New Hampshire (9.5%)
Feel like I’m getting snookered here as usual by the typical Vermont non-conference underperformance/America East dominance schedule of events. Then again, Vermont held up okay in non-conference play and doesn’t have any truly horrid losses. I do still see them and UMass Lowell as functional equals, though UML took an awful loss to Central Connecticut for some reason. I tend to not care about non-con results though, this conference is all about those 16 games in winter as usual.
CHAMPION: UMass Lowell and Vermont split the pie.
TOURNAMENT: Until I am given a reason not to pick this, Vermont wins the conference tournament and gets a 13 or 14 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m intrigued by New Hampshire, who’s overhauled their offense and runs some fairly interesting stuff. They gave Syracuse and Iowa State both good runs for a while.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Vermont at UMass Lowell, January 25 and UMass Lowell at Vermont, March 2. What else would it be?
Atlantic Sun
Favorites (25%): Lipscomb (50.4%)
Darkhorses (10%): Kennesaw State (19.5%), Stetson (18.6%), Eastern Kentucky (12%), Bellarmine (10.8%)
Wildcards (5%): FGCU (9%), North Alabama (9%)
As is tradition, this is going to be a madhouse. I don’t trust any of these teams to motor away from the other, and while Lipscomb has looked the part so far more than anyone teams like EKU (44% 3PT% allowed!) and FGCU (38%) have suffered from some unbelievable bad luck thus far. I’ll believe that one of these teams is that far ahead of the other when I see it.
CHAMPION: Lipscomb wins the regular season title because they’re the least-flawed team.
TOURNAMENT: The regular season champ is 7-for-11 since 2012 here and the top two seeds are 10-for-11, so it’ll either be Lipscomb or surprise 2 seed Eastern Kentucky.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Eastern Kentucky had the most horrific non-con they plausibly could have, going 1-9 against a middling schedule. ShotQuality says their expected record was 5-5 and I actually buy it, considering that 44% 3PT% allowed figure. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen that from anyone. They’re way, way overdue for some good luck.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Presumably one of them. Lipscomb at Eastern Kentucky, January 4 would be the answer but it happened the night I was writing this.
Big Sky
Favorites (25%): Weber State (73.5%), Eastern Washington (26.3%)
Darkhorses (10%): Montana (15.7%)
Wildcards (5%): none
Love these types of conferences. I can tell you the three teams I or anyone needs to care about two months ahead of the conference tournament. You got Weber State, who is the best team with the best player. You got Eastern Washington, who has the best coach in the conference in my opinion in David Riley. Then you got Montana, who has found their groove but also got demolished by Weber last week by 30. It’s very easy to break down: Weber is always going to have the #1 player on the court every night, but depending on who they play, they might not have #2 or #3.
CHAMPION: Weber State wins this by 2-3 games. I think they go 16-2.
TOURNAMENT: The regular season champ is 10-for-12 and the two outliers were 2 seeds. This is always a top-heavy conference. Weber State makes good on the promise and enters March at a wild 28-6, which might get them a 12 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. The gap between 1-3 and everyone else is pretty giant. Portland State is interesting, though; Isaiah Johnson is one of the best sixth men in the country.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Weber State at Eastern Washington, February 17.
Big South
Favorites (25%): High Point (67.1%), Winthrop (26.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): Longwood (13.9%), UNC Asheville (12.2%)
Wildcards (5%): Radford (5.7%)
Turntables and such. In the preseason High Point was generally seen as around the 5th-7th best team here; they are now the outright favorite to win the whole thing. Meanwhile, UNC Asheville, which was seriously being bandied about as a potential 30+ win team, is now the fourth-best team here. Winthrop, Longwood, Radford, and everybody else are more or less what we thought they’d be, but the flipping of HPU and UNCA says the most about where we’re at with the Big South.
CHAMPION: High Point goes 1-for-1 in Year One of Alan Huss.
TOURNAMENT: The regular season champ is 5-for-11 and we’ve seen just one team come up from below the 3 seed to make it happen. I’ll say Winthrop gets it done.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m out on UNC Asheville, who’s enjoyed a pretty healthy 3PT% gap in their underperforming non-con slate. Give me a look at Longwood instead, who looks like they could enjoy some good luck coming soon.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UNC Asheville at High Point, January 10. Well, how real is the trend in both directions for these two teams? Let’s find out.
Big West
Favorites (25%): UC Irvine (81%)
Darkhorses (10%): UC San Diego (10.9%)
Wildcards (5%): Cal State Northridge (8.5%), Hawaii (8.1%)
I WAS RIGHT. I could not figure out why the hype for UC Santa Barbara was so high in the preseason! I was right. Never mind the fact I took Long Beach State to win this thing, no need. I had UCSB fourth, lower than anyone else I could find, and felt like an idiot until the games actually started being played. Now, take a look: you got UC Irvine, and…wait a minute, UC San Diego?
Huh! Okay then. Wait, Cal State Northridge? Those guys?!?
CHAMPION: UC Irvine.
TOURNAMENT: If you dislike chaos, skip the Big West Tournament so you can avoid being mad. The regular season champion is 4-for-13 since 2010. UCSD isn’t even eligible, so rule them out. Poor UC Irvine falls to future 15 seed Hawaii.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Nobody. Feels like they’re all covered for the most part.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UC Irvine at Hawaii, January 11. This isn’t the most impactful game but it’s the best one, arguably.
CAA
Favorites (25%): Hofstra (41%), UNC Wilmington (34%), Charleston (28.6%)
Darkhorses (10%): Delaware (14.9%), Drexel (12.8%)
Wildcards (5%): none
Anyone who says they know how this will turn out is lying. This is extremely, extremely chaotic. KenPom has the top five teams here separated by all of three points in a 70-possession game on a neutral floor. They’re all projected either 12-6 or 13-5. I have zero clue what happens here, but it should be fun to watch.
CHAMPION: Is it boring to pick Charleston? I am picking Charleston.
TOURNAMENT: Hey fun fact: the best CAA team by KenPom has won this tourney in eight of the last 10 years. Currently that is Hofstra by all of one point, so let’s say Hofstra.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Northeastern who is enjoying a nasty -5% 3PT% delta at the moment. I refuse to think these guys suck as badly as they’ve sucked.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Hofstra at Charleston, March 2.
Conference USA
Favorites (25%): Louisiana Tech (56.7%), Liberty (51.7%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): Western Kentucky (9.1%)
Two-team race unless it isn’t. The odds of a non-Louisiana Tech or Liberty winner, per Torvik, is just 13%. WKU makes up over two-thirds of that by themselves. These are two teams that are pretty much dead equal. KenPom has Liberty ahead by two points; Torvik has Tech ahead by one. The Massey consensus has Liberty barely ahead here. This should be very, very fun to watch unfold.
CHAMPION: Louisiana Tech and Liberty split the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: 72% shot that one of the top two win this. I’d pick Liberty just because of history; they’ll be a 12-13 seed if they get in.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Pay attention to UTEP. They rank #1 in FT Rate, #4 in defensive TO%, and have an 8-6 record despite shooting 24.4% from three. If that comes up at all they’re dangerous in one-off games.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Liberty at Louisiana Tech, January 14. First data point here.
Horizon League
Favorites (25%): Fort Wayne (46.3%), Oakland (35.4%)
Darkhorses (10%): Youngstown State (24.1%), Cleveland State (13.9%)
Wildcards (5%): Wright State (8.9%), Northern Kentucky (4.6%)
As is tradition now, this should be pretty wide-open with a somewhat-solidified top group and a somewhat-solidified middle. I would guess that the top three finish as the top three teams and 4-6 finish as 4-6. In what order? No clue. Your regular season winner here? No clue. But I’ll place a bet that it’s a tie of some sort.
CHAMPION: Oakland and Youngstown State split the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: The 1-seed in this conference tournament is 3-for-10 since 2013. I’m good. Wright State takes it.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Keep an eye on Milwaukee, the best offensive rebounding team in the league with the second-highest three-point attempt rate. That’s a formula that can steal you a win or two.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Oakland at Fort Wayne, February 14. What could be more romantic than spending your Valentine’s Day in Fort Wayne, Indiana?
Ivy League
Favorites (25%): Princeton (72%), Yale (26.6%)
Darkhorses (10%): Cornell (18.9%)
Wildcards (5%): none
This might be the best Ivy in history, which is saying something considering last year’s Ivy was arguably the best in history. All of those top three are inside the top 115 and only Dartmouth is outside the top 300, meaning that almost everyone here is quite competitive. The top story is obviously Princeton, who’s put together a stunning run in non-con play that has them as an at-large candidate if they perform well in conference play. Yale was the preseason favorite and is still very good; Cornell is simply extremely fun. All of them would be 12 seeds or better.
CHAMPION: Princeton (12-2) takes the title by a game over Yale (11-3).
TOURNAMENT: Columbia hosts this year and sits at just 24% to make the four-team tournament, so I doubt that’s of any impact. As such, Princeton takes this.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. But really, I think Yale has become way too underrated based on an underwhelming non-con. A 36% hit rate from three allowed is not in line with expected results, and worth noting they played all of four (4) home games. Not easy for anyone!
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Princeton at Yale, February 2. We get to learn a lot here, such as how cool and good this game is.
MAAC
Favorites (25%): Marist (44.8%), Canisius (30.3%), Iona (29.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): Quinnipiac (12.6%)
Wildcards (5%): Saint Peter’s (6.3%), Mount St. Mary’s (5.5%)
So many nice things said about the Ivy schools! Let’s ruin that here. This is one of the worst MAACs ever, a grouping of 11 teams, none of whom are in the KenPom top 150. The highest-ranked team is Iona, in Year One of a new coach and the proud owners of a home loss to Marist. Seven teams are projected to finish between 11-9 and 13-7. Arguably the best player in the conference (Rider’s Mervin James) plays on one of the conference’s worst teams. The title leader, Marist, might have one of the 15 best players. All of the actual best players keep getting plucked away by Big Six schools. Just a bummer, unless you’re Sam Federman, and God bless Sam Federman for loving this the way he does.
CHAMPION: Iona. I’ll pick against them one day; today is not that day. (Also the other two favorites have huge 3PT% disparities that I don’t trust, mainly Canisius.)
TOURNAMENT: The #1 seed in the MAAC is 2-for-12. Yes, 2-for-12. It was 1-for-11 before Iona mercifully saved us last year. As such, congrats to Marist on the Tournament bid!
SUPER DARKHORSE: Rider rates as one of the unluckiest teams in America on pretty much every site I use. Maybe a surprise 6th-place finish is in their future?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Iona at Marist, March 3. This seems like it genuinely could decide the champion, so hey.
MAC
Favorites (25%): Akron (51.1%), Kent State (49.5%)
Darkhorses (10%): Toledo (17.4%)
Wildcards (5%): none
This is a three-team race that is probably really two, but we’ll call it three. Akron and Kent State are in a dead heat per the Massey Consensus, while Toledo lurks behind. I mentioned in the offseason that this might be a better position for Toledo, considering that being the 1 seed in the MAC Tournament clearly hasn’t worked for them. Maybe playing from behind will help! Also, sadly, this might be the worst MAC in history. It’s 24th in Ken’s conference rankings at the moment. Their lowest finish ever is 20th. This is a sad thing to report.
CHAMPION: Akron and Kent State split the title at 14-4 or so.
TOURNAMENT: Generally chaotic and annoying if you want the best team to win it. Regular season champ is 4-for-13 since 2009; the requirement is being a top 150 KenPom team. That describes three teams, all of whom are listed above. It’s FINALLY Toledo’s year baby!
SUPER DARKHORSE: Bowling Green interests me a little.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Kent State at Toledo, March 8. That seems like it could decide a lot of important things.
MEAC
Favorites (25%): Norfolk State (64.4%), Howard (42.8%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): NC Central (8.8%), Delaware State (4.8%)
This is the third-worst conference in college hoops, per KenPom, and generally I consider it a bad sign if you rank behind whoever the independents are in a given year. This year it’s Chicago State, who’s having a good year for their standards but still ranks 309th in KenPom. That means your average team is worse than 309th. Congrats to the MEAC, SWAC, and NEC for all being worse than Chicago State. Couple things worth noting here: Delaware State and Norfolk State are both 60% or better ATS from 2021-22 onward in conference play.
CHAMPION: Norfolk State wins the regular season title by a game.
TOURNAMENT: Expect some chaos. The regular season champ is 7-for-17 since 2006. As such, congrats to NC Central on the bid.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Norfolk State at Howard, January 20. That’s the first shot fired in this season-long battle.
Missouri Valley
Favorites (25%): Indiana State (78.1%)
Darkhorses (10%): Drake (17.5%), Southern Illinois (15.6%)
Wildcards (5%): Northern Iowa (4.7%)
This is always such a fun conference to watch, but I think it might be even more so this year. The best teams all play pretty entertaining styles that are different from one another. Two of the four teams above are closer to NCAAT bids than they’ve been in a long time. The #1 team in the league has gone barnstorming in non-conference play and turned up roses. The preseason favorite has been precisely as good as everyone guessed and has gotten blown by. It’s such a fascinating year for the MVC, one where they’ve got real depth and hopefully a real shot at two teams in the field. Unlikely, but hey.
CHAMPION: Indiana State wins the regular season title by 2-3 games.
TOURNAMENT: Just three times ever has a sub-100 KenPom team won it…but the regular season champ is just 6 for the last 13. It’ll be one of those top three. I’d pick Drake. Here’s hoping ISU builds up enough of an at-large resume to be safe. Alternately, just put both of ISU and Drake in anyway. Beats pretending that literally anybody would want to see TCU or Cincinnati in the field of 68.
SUPER DARKHORSE: If Missouri State can figure out offense whatsoever they’re really interesting. Best defense in the league.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Indiana State at Drake, January 10. This is better than any game the Big Ten is gonna give you this year.
NEC
Favorites (25%): Merrimack (58.2%), Central Connecticut (38.6%), Sacred Heart (24.2%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): none
This is the worst conference in college basketball and the only thing going for it is that Merrimack is now eligible for the NCAA Tournament.
CHAMPION: Merrimack and Central Connecticut share the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: The best team by KenPom is 2-for-10 in winning this over the last decade. Congrats to Sacred Heart.
SUPER DARKHORSE: …….
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Merrimack at Sacred Heart, March 2. Interesting, actually! Could be a title decider.
Ohio Valley
Favorites (25%): Morehead State (80.9%)
Darkhorses (10%): UT Martin (14.5%), Little Rock (13.4%)
Wildcards (5%): Western Illinois (5%)
Morehead State is ranked 130th on KenPom at the time of publication. No other team in this conference tops 244th. I think that does a pretty good job of summing up where we’re at here. By the way, a giant shoutout to Morehead State and head coach Preston Spradlin. They lost a top-two player in this league two weeks before the season in Mark Freeman to injury and are way better than anyone could have expected. That’s a guy with a real future. Keep him in mind.
CHAMPION: Morehead is going to win this by three games.
TOURNAMENT: The average winner of this conference over the last decade is a 3 seed. But! They almost never have a year where one team is 100+ spots ahead of anyone else. Morehead time.
SUPER DARKHORSE: This conference has several potential risers within its ranks on the coaching side of things. Naturally, the team I’m deeply curious about here is Little Rock, whose HC is 62 years old. They’re the only team in the league who closed the non-con with a positive TO% and OREB% margin. HC Darrell Walker probably can’t jump, I don’t think, but an NCAAT bid could be a nice capstone to his career.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Morehead State at Tennessee Martin, February 17. Morehead’s best shot at losing a conference game.
Patriot League
Favorites (25%): Colgate (79.6%)
Darkhorses (10%): American (12.7%), Lehigh (10.2%)
Wildcards (5%): Boston University (8.4%), Navy (6.1%)
Well, as usual, this is the Colgate Invitational. Colgate is projected to be three wins clear of anyone and has the league’s best player in Braeden Smith. Does anything more really need to be said?
CHAMPION: Colgate again.
TOURNAMENT: Colgate again.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. Though I’m intrigued by what job Matt Langel would leave Colgate for, if any. I thought it would be Syracuse until it wasn’t. Would La Salle be of interest for him?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Colgate at American, January 27. Interesting enough.
Sun Belt
Favorites (25%): James Madison (82.2%), Appalachian State (27%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): none
Easy enough! This is top 25 James Madison, who everyone seems to have sort of forgotten about but is still undefeated, and App State. I feel like you probably know enough about JMU at this point. Is anyone aware of how good App is? Consensus top 100 team with a win over Auburn and a 2-0 start to conference play. They’re top 25 in both offensive and defensive 2PT%. They’ve also been unlucky on 3PT% so far. Scary team with an excellent HC in Dustin Kerns.
CHAMPION: James Madison. I think they’re going to end the regular season with 1-2 losses, which…should have them over the hump for an at-large? I think?
TOURNAMENT: Bad news, JMU boys: the best team in the Sun Belt has won the league just twice in the last 11 tries. Here’s hoping App State would be the lucky recipient.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I can’t quit Marshall. I should! But I can’t. Too mathy.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: App State at James Madison, January 13. The first of two meetings between the two and the next game on JMU’s schedule you could somewhat envision a loss happening.
SoCon
Favorites (25%): Samford (54.5%), Western Carolina (39.2%)
Darkhorses (10%): UNC Greensboro (21.6%)
Wildcards (5%): Furman (6.4%)
This is usually a very competitive conference and this year isn’t different, with four serious title contenders, but it feels like they may lack a top-end team. Samford comes closest but isn’t inside the KenPom top 100. The only truly nasty team here is VMI, which is expected. Everyone else is top 250 or better. That’s great for competition purposes but also means no one is very likely to pull that far ahead of anyone else. By the way, I am begging you to get familiar with Vonterius Woolbright at Western Carolina. He could be the first 20/10/5 player in 30+ years.
CHAMPION: Samford and Western Carolina split the title.
TOURNAMENT: For whatever reason, this tourney is relatively immune to the whims of March. The best team (per KenPom) is 10-for-12 since 2011. I’d place a small bet on Samford getting it done.
SUPER DARKHORSE: A team I’d keep an eye on here is Wofford. They got victimized a bit by opponent 3PT% in conference play but run excellent offensive sets and have done very well on the boards.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Samford at Furman, January 24. This might be the game of the year; the expected score is 88-87.
SWAC
Favorites (25%): Jackson State (48.9%), Texas Southern (28%)
Darkhorses (10%): Southern (23.8%), Alabama State (12.5%)
Wildcards (5%): Florida A&M (5%), Prairie View A&M (4.9%)
You really could just list everyone but Alabama A&M and the horrendous Mississippi Valley State as a contender, because that’s usually how it goes. Non-conference play is entirely useless for the most part as a data point because these teams spend 90% of their November/Decembers away from home to pay the bills. I mean I feel like Jackson State is a deserving leader in the clubhouse here, but does anyone really know? This is the most crapshoot-y conference out of many.
CHAMPION: Buddy, who knows? I’ll take Southern.
TOURNAMENT: Same question as above. Who knows? ShotQuality actually has Alabama State as the best team here, which would be cool to see. They last made the tournament in 2011.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Grambling State. They have a 3PT% delta of -15.4% at the moment, one of the worst I’ve ever seen. That won’t hold.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Texas Southern at Southern, January 6. First firing shot between the faves here.
Southland
Favorites (25%): McNeese State (93.7%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): Nicholls State (7.1%)
I mean. That says it all. This is the least-interesting race out there.
CHAMPION: McNeese.
TOURNAMENT: McNeese.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Southeastern Louisiana because they were the preseason media poll pick for some reason. I get you hate Will Wade and all (welcome to the club five years ago, people) but c’mon.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: McNeese State at Nicholls State, February 17. This is one of two (2) games on the entire conference slate where McNeese is not favored by 6+ points.
Summit League
Favorites (25%): St. Thomas (73.3%), South Dakota State (30.6%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): Denver (8.7%), Oral Roberts (5.7%)
I see everyone getting fooled…seen it before…seen it my whole life. The Summit League’s top contenders regularly like to punt on non-conference play to use it as experimentation for Summit play. As such, toss everything from that pretty well out the window. St. Thomas is probably the best team here but South Dakota State is the most talented, and I know better than to sleep on North Dakota State. This isn’t close to done yet.
CHAMPION: South Dakota State wins the league by a game over St. Thomas.
TOURNAMENT: St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, so I’ll guess it’s SDSU again.
SUPER DARKHORSE: North Dakota State. Come on guys. Also, they gave up a 39% 3PT% on defense in non-con, which seems very unsustainable.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: St. Thomas at South Dakota State, February 24. For pretty obvious reasons.
And finally, the last of the 32 conferences.
WAC
Favorites (25%): Grand Canyon (77.6%), Seattle (32.1%)
Darkhorses (10%): none
Wildcards (5%): none
Two-team race! I love it. What this really is is a very simple thing to decipher: it’s Grand Canyon versus blowing it. Grand Canyon has far more talent (and honestly, better coaching) than any other team in this conference. They should win the league by multiple games. If they don’t, they’ve either been horrifically unlucky or have done something pretty bad. I think they should run away with this, but Seattle’s in a peak year and might have something to say about it.
CHAMPION: Grand Canyon only wins the conference by one game.
TOURNAMENT: For a one-bid league, this is a beacon of calm. Nine out of eleven times the best team in the league analytically has gone on to win the title. Early congrats to 12 seed Grand Canyon, I suppose.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Stephen F. Austin only has a 4% shot at the regular season title, but the way they play invites extreme chaos. This is a team that’s 359th in offensive TO%, 356th in defensive FT Rate, 7th in defensive TO%, and 18th in 2PT% allowed.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Grand Canyon at Seattle, January 20. Man, is January 20 a heck of a day or what? And now we’re done at 9,500+ words. Goodbye.