A 2024-25 conference play/NCAA Tournament primer for all 31 women's basketball conferences
Includes one bracket and numerous swings for the fences
Happy New Year again. This is the first-ever women’s version of a newsletter tradition: re-evaluating every single conference at the New Year, both on a national (for multi-bid leagues) and regional (who’s going to actually win the conference) level. Given that conference play has still yet to begin for over half the conferences, this is a useful snapshot of where everyone stands at this halfway point of the season.
Anyway, the below post is going to be very, very long, so if that’s not your thing, I will not blame you for CTRL + F'ing your league of choice and/or exiting out of this post immediately. Still, as someone who covers college basketball at-large, I do find it useful to see where everyone’s at a hair over two months before Selection Sunday. All percentages are via Bart Torvik’s site, by the way. Bart doesn’t offer fully broken-down numbers for WBB like he does for MBB just yet, so I’ve taken some liberties in interpreting the numbers and attempting to build this out as best as I can.
This year’s ranges on the NATIONAL level are as follows. LOCKS are those at 97% or above to make the NCAA Tournament. I’m thinking of teams that would be 1-4 seeds if the Tournament began today. LIKELIES have a 70-97% shot to get in. Why 70-97%? I don’t know, sounded good. (There are 20 of these.) Then there’s the BUBBLES (those between 30-70% to get in), the UNLIKELIES (5-30%), and MAYBE NEXT YEARS (under 5%).
Then there’s the REGIONAL side for all 31 leagues. This will represent the conference’s FAVORITES (those with 50% or better odds of at least a shared title), CONTENDERS (25-50%), DARKHORSES (10-25%), and WILDCARDS (5-10%). You don’t need to know those at 4.9% or lower barring a real shocker. This year, I didn’t list the individual percentages for each, instead choosing to separate into the categories and let those speak for themselves. More fun to leave a little mystery.
This edition ended up being almost 9,000 words. Genuinely, I think that this week’s work at the newsletter is the best you’ll find anywhere in terms of a national overview of D1 basketball on both the men’s and women’s side. I’m pretty proud of it. Everything from here on out is paid, though this post is free. At $30/year (or $5/month) it’s pretty well worth the money to me.
Anyway, enough jabbering. Let’s roll.
MEGA MINDS
Big Ten
NATIONAL
LOCKS: UCLA, USC, Ohio State
LIKELIES: Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan
BUBBLES: Indiana, Oregon, Illinois, Nebraska, Washington
UNLIKELIES: Penn State
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers
The Big Ten fascinates me. On one hand, they have three of the ten best teams in America in UCLA, USC, and Ohio State. They‘ve got seven of the top 25. They also have six teams that truly could go either way, and there’s a hard maximum of 14 teams that are in serious contention for the NCAA Tournament. Still, this is all very good; any conference that dumps 13 teams inside Bart Torvik’s top 45 is a pretty impressive one.
The only questions for UCLA, USC, and Ohio State are what seeds they’ll end up with. The very skimpy projection system I cooked up for this has UCLA and USC as the final two 1 seeds, while Ohio State is more of a 3. All fine. Iowa through Minnesota: all 4-6 seeds. But it’s everyone else that rates out as questionable. For instance, Michigan, who’s been a really fun team to watch this year and is one of the 25 best teams in the sport, doesn’t quite have the resume to match yet. They’ll likely get in…but are we 100% certain of it? Maybe, maybe not.
The bubbles are even more questionable. Oregon and Indiana are both tracking for 8/9 seeds, and no one who sits as an 8/9 seed at the turn of the New Year is a lock for the field. If the season ended today, the Big Ten would manage to get a truly absurd number of teams in the field - likely 12, which would set an all-time record. In a similar fashion to the SEC in men’s basketball, it’s setting the standard in a new way. However, just like the SEC, there’s going to be a team or teams that simply loses close games and falls out of contention entirely.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): UCLA
Contenders (25-50%): USC
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Ohio State
There are only two super-serious contenders here with a fringe third, but what makes this most interesting will be the race for fourth. All of Iowa, Michigan State, Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, and Michigan are almost dead-even in every metric I can find. The winner of this group will get the coveted double-bye that sends you straight to Friday, and that’s huge for any team hoping to avoid a loss to a lower-rated opponent.
Along with that, how the rest of the group shakes out will be pretty important for the 1-3 seeds. Let’s say UCLA wins the league, as is expected. Nothing shocking. Currently, they’d face the winner of Michigan/Maryland, two top-25 teams, one of whom has not lost a game yet. That’s how hard this league is! It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch.
CHAMPION: UCLA wins the league by two or three games. They’ll lose one somewhere.
TOURNAMENT: Well, let’s go big: the Big Ten gets a big 12 teams into the field. Everyone from the bubble, minus Washington, gets into the field of 68. That’s right: one conference will be responsible for 18% of the field. We love this! I guess.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Folks, I believe in Iowa bigly. Okay, not that big, but if I had to pick a team that could crack this top three, the team that’s seventh in 2PT%, has excellent posts, and has taken a step forward defensively is going to be dangerous.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UCLA at USC, February 13. This might be the legitimate Game of the Year? It’s at least a contender. This is the best shot at a conference loss for UCLA.
SEC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: South Carolina, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma
LIKELIES: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky
BUBBLES: Mississippi, Auburn
UNLIKELIES: Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Georgia, Arkansas
‘Locks’ is a little deceiving here. South Carolina may be the best team in the sport, and Texas is one of the five best. The remainder here are all somewhere between 11th and 15th, but they’re also going to make the NCAA Tournament. There’s only two truly duff teams, as are appropriately listed. Theres’s also over two-thirds of the teams here at least considered in bubble territory. Quite impressive!
On average, this may be a hair better than the Big Ten. But on volume, the Big Ten is going to put more teams into the Tournament. The SEC has more locks, the Big Ten has more in terms of teams likely to actually get in. Both are elite conferences, just in different ways.
It’s actually Texas who rates ahead of South Carolina in NET right now, but I think most people (correctly) believe South Carolina’s the superior overall team. LSU is lurking, but because LSU never plays a good non-conference slate, we have no idea how good they are. We do believe we’ve got an idea of how good Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama are: pretty good, just not good enough to be top ten.
The remaining eight teams in contention are ones where we think we know what they are but we need more data to feel fully certain. Even in a very silly 16-game schedule, the results this mega-conference pumps out will be fascinating.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): South Carolina
Contenders (25-50%): Texas
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none (LSU closest)
As expected, South Carolina should be the league winner here, but don’t discount Texas. They’re top-five, too, and they’ve got the interior firepower to beat and bang with anyone. I’m very excited to see those two play twice this year: January 12 and February 9.
However! I would actually submit the Tennessee Lady Volunteers as the team with the most to say here. They won’t win this league, but because of their schedule, they will be the single most impactful team to league standings. Tennessee gets all of South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma at home, along with UConn as a bonus. Given the unique system they play, it’s not at all unexpected to see them beat a couple of these teams and upset the SEC apple cart.
CHAMPION: South Carolina wins the league at 15-1, beating out 14-2 Texas.
TOURNAMENT: With deep regret, I’ll share my opinion that the Big Ten and SEC end up responsible for 22 of the 68 teams in the field. The SEC gets ten in: all of our top nine here plus Ole Miss.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Tennessee for reasons described earlier.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: South Carolina at Tennessee, January 27. Again: Tennessee is the key to almost all of this. Texas doesn’t have to play this weird Kim Caldwell alien system at TBA, but in Austin. South Carolina does have to make the road trip. The most likely outcome here is South Carolina winning by 16 or something. But every now and then, you get a true stunner in women’s hoops. Maybe.
ACC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke
LIKELIES: California, NC State, Florida State
BUBBLES: Stanford, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
UNLIKELIES: Clemson
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: SMU, Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh
Unlike the men’s counterpart, which is actively annoying, ACC WBB is very good and has multiple surprises in a positive sense. I think everyone with eyes knew that Notre Dame would be really good this year, and minus a couple of acceptable screwups they’ve looked the part. I think they’re a top-five team nationally under almost any rating system.
The real surprise is still-undefeated Georgia Tech, who has played like a top-10 team after entering the 2024-25 season simply hoping to make the NCAA Tournament. They own wins over #48 South Dakota State (neutral), #22 Oregon (neutral), #32 Mississippi State (home), #8 North Carolina (road), and #35 Nebraska (home). They’re very, very good indeed. Have they benefitted from some opponent shooting luck? Of course, but even regressing for that a bit, they’re a legitimate contender for the program’s first Elite Eight AND Final Four in school history.
North Carolina, Duke, and FSU are all about what I would’ve expected preseason, but another positive surprise here: the California Golden Bears! They weren’t fully on my NCAA Tournament radar in preseason, but outside of an understandable neutral-site loss to Michigan State by six points, they haven’t been toppled yet. They’ve beaten Alabama and Stanford and are on track to make their first NCAAT since 2019.
The rest of the conference is a bit of a mess. Louisville has continued their downward slide and may miss the Tournament for the first time since 2010. Stanford has good metrics but a mediocre record. Miami has the reverse. Virginia Tech has both. Truly, anywhere from 7-11 teams could make the Tournament and I wouldn’t be floored by any number in that range.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Notre Dame
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Georgia Tech, North Carolina
Wildcards (5% or above): NC State, Duke, Florida State
Interesting situation here. Notre Dame theoretically feels head-and-shoulders above the rest of this conference, but Georgia Tech has played like a legitimately serious ACC title contender. I wouldn’t discount North Carolina either, as the rest of their schedule is fairly light compared to that of Notre Dame’s.
A team I’d keep an eye on here is NC State. In the 18-team conference era, there’s going to be some extremely stupid scheduling oversights that occur and cause extreme unbalance. NCSU is this year’s beneficiary. They get Notre Dame and Duke as home-only games. This still means they have to play at UNC and Georgia Tech as well as make the West Coast swing to Cal and Stanford, but getting Notre Dame at home on a Sunday when all eyes are on you beats having to go to Notre Dame big time.
CHAMPION: Notre Dame wins the league by two games. They’re just too good. Georgia Tech gets second, NC State jumps up to third.
TOURNAMENT: I’ll split the difference and say nine ACC teams get in. All of the top seven, plus Louisville (who figures it out enough to be a 10 seed) and Stanford (who ends up in the First Four).
SUPER DARKHORSE: NC State as mentioned above.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Notre Dame at North Carolina, January 5. This is the only game all ACC season where Notre Dame has a spread below 10 points. The only one. Enjoy!
Big 12
LOCKS: Kansas State, TCU
LIKELIES: Utah, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
BUBBLES: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas
UNLIKELIES: Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Arizona, BYU
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: UCF, Arizona State, Houston
Very chaotic conference in the sense that they have five defined tiers and I’m not sure anyone can make the leap up to or down from any of them. Kansas State and TCU are the class of the conference, have the best players in the conference, and look like the clear #1 and #2. West Virginia could be #3, but their wins have yet to match their metrics. Lots of time left! Just not sold at the moment. Utah has good wins but doesn’t have the metrics to match.
This is an intriguing conference that feels a crucial step slow compared to the Big Three. Clearly, KSU and TCU are capable of making the Final Four, but I don’t know that anyone in this league can actually win the title. They have a lot of teams that can make the NCAA Tournament, but not many that should.
It’s also just very topsy-turvy compared to what we’re used to. Baylor has played at the level of a 9 seed thus far. Iowa State is a crushing disappointment and may not make the field of 68. Arizona, source of some of the most famous NCAAW moments in that COVID season, almost certainly won’t get in. It’s a new era in the Big 12, which befits letting Houston win the MBB conference title last year and Arizona State win it in football this winter.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Kansas State
Contenders (25-50%): TCU
Darkhorses (10% or above): West Virginia
Wildcards (5% or above): none
I think Kansas State is pretty obvious: best metrics, best players, probably the best team. TCU is also pretty obvious: very good metrics and arguably the best Big 12 player in Sedona Prince. So: let’s talk about West Virginia.
The Mountaineers under Mark Kellogg are a thrilling watch. Their wacky defense forces turnovers on 35% of opponent possessions - easily #1 in the nation - and they’re crushing opposition on the boards right now with the 11th-highest OREB%. They get good shots, and they’ve outscored opponents by almost 32 points a game. They’re clearly a very good basketball team.
They also generate cheap heat via demolitions of bad competition. West Virginia has played nine of its 13 games against Quadrant 4 competition. Only eight teams in the sport have outscored Quad 4 teams by more than WVU has, and their overmatched opponents turn it over on 38% of possessions. In the four games against Quadrants 1-3 they’ve played, WVU is 2-2, forces turnovers on just 26% of possessions, and rates out as the 14th-best team in the sport. That’s still good! It’s just not as elite as the Q4 games may make them out to be.
CHAMPION: Sticking with my preseason pick: TCU steals the title by a game over KSU.
TOURNAMENT: Here’s your mild shock: the Big 12 gets just six teams in. Baylor gets in as the last one and is an 8 or 9 seed. This means Iowa State - preseason top 10 Iowa State - is left out.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean…Utah has looked like the third-best team in the league at times this year. They’ve got a good mix of talent.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: TCU at Kansas State, February 5. Armageddon game.
POWER FIVE BUT NOT MEGA FIVE
Big East
LOCKS: UConn
LIKELIES: Creighton
BUBBLES: Seton Hall, St. John’s
UNLIKELIES: Villanova, Marquette
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Georgetown, Butler, DePaul, Providence, Xavier
Well, you’re probably aware that UConn may be the best team in women’s basketball and will almost certainly end the year as a 1 seed and a potential title favorite. Nothing notable to be gleaned from that. Instead, let’s focus on the rest of this conference and its slim-but-hopeful shots at playing spoiler to the Huskies.
Creighton, of course, has the best team and best shot. They’ve played like a top-25 team this year and have a fantastic 1-2 punch in Lauren Jensen and Morgan Maly, two elite shooters that could give anyone trouble. Defensively, they aren’t much to write home about, and even on offense, they play almost exactly like the men’s team does: no free throws, no offensive rebounds, but a lot of threes and no turnovers.
If not Creighton, the next-best shots are Seton Hall and St. John’s, two very flawed teams with good defenses and bad offenses. I’m also intrigued a bit by Villanova, who has good metrics but is also 7-7 and had some ugly non-conference losses (76-62 at home to Temple really stands out). Weird conference. Just like the men’s side, they might only get three teams in. Honestly, they may only get two in, just because outside of UConn and Creighton there’s so little to hang your hat on.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): UConn
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
I have UConn with a 73% chance to go 18-0 in conference play and that somehow feels low. That’s all you really need to know: three out of four simulations, these ladies go 18-0 with relative ease.
CHAMPION: UConn goes 18-0. The closest game of any of these is at Seton Hall on February 19, a game UConn still wins by 9.
TOURNAMENT: I think because someone has to win games, the Big East will get three teams in: UConn (1 seed), Creighton (6 seed), and Seton Hall (First Four).
SUPER DARKHORSE: None. UConn’s league. But I picked Seton Hall to keep it close against them because they’re the only Big East team with quality turnover and rebound numbers.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Creighton at Seton Hall, January 11. If you want this league to get three bids, Seton Hall has to win this game.
POTENTIAL MULTI-BIDS (YES, SERIOUSLY)
Atlantic 10
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: George Mason, Richmond, Saint Joseph’s
UNLIKELIES: none
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: everyone else (barring conference tournament)
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Richmond
Contenders (25-50%): George Mason
Darkhorses (10% or above): Saint Joseph’s
Wildcards (5% or above): none
This is a pretty complicated case, so hear me out. The Atlantic 10 has three teams this year all ranked between 37th-51st in Torvik and 38th-54th in WAB. These are all bubble teams by at least one definition of the rule. The odds are that two of these will get in, but there’s a real path to a third. Yes, the Atlantic 10 could get more teams in the field than the Big East this year if things fall a certain way. Fun!
Richmond has more losses than the other two teams listed here, but it’s because they’ve played a tougher schedule than GMU or St. Joe’s. The best chance for a three-bid A10 goes something like this: Richmond plays like a top-35 team the rest of the way and goes 16-2 in conference play, but one of St. Joe’s/GMU go 15-3 and play like a top-50 team. Richmond falls in the conference championship to the other, and the 15-3 in-conference team loses in the other semifinal. Complicated, but not implausible.
It’s also exactly what I think is going to happen, so hey, might as well wishcast a bit.
CHAMPION: Let’s go with exactly how Torvik has it: Richmond wins it at 16-2, St. Joe’s 15-3, GMU 14-4.
TOURNAMENT: Which then leads to George Mason winning the conference tournament over Richmond. Is that enough to get three teams in? Probably not, sadly.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Intrigued somewhat by Rhode Island, who had an awful non-con but was unlucky in some closer games.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Richmond at Saint Joseph’s, March 1. This is the season finale. I mean…if Richmond has the A10’s best interests in mind, they’ll lose this game and one to George Mason on January 8. Fingers crossed?
Ivy League
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: Harvard, Princeton
UNLIKELIES: Columbia
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: everyone else
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Princeton, Harvard, Columbia
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
This one could also get three bids, but it’s a far tougher case than the A-10 as far as I’m concerned. Harvard built up a good resume in non-con, beating Indiana and St. John’s on the road. At 11-1, they’re actually quite well positioned to get an at-large spot if they go 12-2 or something in Ivy play. (11-3 MIGHT get it done, but highly doubtful.) Princeton has similar metrics and a road win over Seton Hall, but doesn’t have much more to go with it. Their at-large case requires going 13-1 in Ivy play, and at that point, you might as well just win the league.
The third team, and the wrench in everyone’s plans, is Columbia. They weren’t expected to be almost top-50 good, but here they are. They have no great wins, but wins over Ball State and FGCU are decent ones, and they kept it very close against all of Villanova, Indiana, and Richmond. They’re a good team, but their at-large case, like Princeton’s, probably requires going 13-1 in conference play. Not exactly easy to do in a very good, very tough league. We’ll see what this conference is able to manage; my best guess is two teams get in.
CHAMPION: My problem with the multi-bid theory is that I think Harvard might just be significantly better than everyone else here. Princeton and Columbia split their season series, but only Princeton beats Harvard, resulting in them being ahead in the standings. I think Harvard goes 13-1 (24-2 overall) and are in no matter what happens in the conference tournament.
TOURNAMENT: Which I simulated and resulted in Princeton winning. So! You get a two-bid Ivy in this scenario. Hooray!
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m interested in Brown, who has solid shot volume metrics on both ends of the court.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Harvard at Princeton, January 11. This is arguably the most consequential game of the entire season for mid-majors. If Princeton wins, it’s gigantic for their resume; if Harvard wins, they may be locked into the eventual field of 68 at that exact moment.
Summit League
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: South Dakota State
UNLIKELIES: Oral Roberts
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: everyone else
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): South Dakota State
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Oral Roberts
As has become the yearly standard for this league, South Dakota State is trouncing the field, built up a pretty good non-conference resume, and is in line to get an NCAA Tournament bid with a 15-1 or 16-0 conference play record no matter what happens in the conference tournament. I know about them, I like them, I support what they’re doing.
Oral Roberts is the more interesting case. At 92nd at Torvik, their surface-level value is just the second-best team in a one-bid league where they can perhaps play spoiler and maybe be a bid thief. What they’ve actually done on the court is more interesting to me: a true road win over Missouri, no bad losses, and a perfect +0.0 WAB at the end of conference play. All that really means is that to get an at-large bid themselves they’d have to go 15-1 in Summit play and be 25-4 overall, but it’s less absurd than I initially anticipated.
CHAMPION: I’ll go with South Dakota State en route to a 15-1 season, but a solid 13-3 run by Oral Roberts nabs them second place.
TOURNAMENT: In the simulation I ran, SDSU defeated Oral Roberts in the final by one point. Crushing for ORU! But it locks the Jackrabbits in the field once again.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one in particular. Two-team league for the most part.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Already happened, as South Dakota State defeated Oral Roberts 81-76 on the road last night. Short of that, South Dakota State at North Dakota State, February 12. Dakota Marker always delivers.
ONE-BID LEAGUES
American
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): South Florida, UTSA
Darkhorses (10% or above): Temple
Wildcards (5% or above): none
This is a fine conference, possibly the sixth-best in women’s basketball, whose main crime is that it doesn’t have a team who performed well enough in non-conference play to secure an at-large spot. South Florida and UTSA came closest; their Wins Above Bubble metrics are like those of NIT 3 seeds. They didn’t do enough. The good news for all involved is that there’s no truly bad team in the AAC. Most games here should have at least some meaning, particularly when USF and UTSA are dead-even and Temple isn’t far behind.
CHAMPION: UTSA is my champion. Now, their schedule was lighter than USF’s, but even adjusted for that, they’re far better on the boards, aren’t reliant on a huge 3PT% gap, and grade out as slightly better overall.
TOURNAMENT: The randomizer picks UTSA as your conference representative.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m intrigued by Tulane, who only grades out about six points worse per 100 than USF/UTSA and has been fantastic defensively.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UTSA at USF, January 29. Somehow, the only game these two will play against each other all season.
America East
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Albany, Vermont
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Two pretty good teams in Albany and Vermont, a lot of slop after. Such is life as what NET has as the 24th-best conference in America. This is no crime, obviously, but the two good teams really do obscure the seven much, much weaker ones. When your third-best team here is 5-8 Maine, who lost their three games to top-50 competition by a combined 93 points, it ain’t great. Still, as long as your champ is Albany or Vermont, they’ll be a tough NCAA out.
CHAMPION: Vermont and Albany tie at 15-1.
TOURNAMENT: Albany takes it over Vermont to get their second bid since 2017.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Albany at Vermont, February 8. By the time this publishes they’ll have played each other already on January 2.
Atlantic Sun
Favorites (50% or above): FGCU
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Eastern Kentucky
Even with the departure of Karl Smesko to the WNBA, FGCU is still the clear and obvious favorite here, just as they were in preseason. Eastern Kentucky is a distant challenger, and it’s more likely FGCU will drop a game or two than it was two months ago, but for the most part things are still about the same as they were. The Eagles are simply too good for everyone else.
CHAMPION: FGCU, of course, likely by 3+ games.
TOURNAMENT: No surprise: FGCU won our fake conference tournament.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I think Jacksonville is a decent challenger. They have the highest opponent-adjusted free throw rate of any offense in America, do well on the boards, and nearly beat Miami on the road in November.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: FGCU at Eastern Kentucky, February 8. This is FGCU’s best shot at losing a conference game. If they don’t lose here, 18-0 is absolutely on the table.
Big Sky
Favorites (50% or above): Montana State
Contenders (25-50%): Northern Arizona
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Idaho
CHAMPION: Montana State by a game.
TOURNAMENT: No surprise here either: Montana State won our fake conference tournament. Give me some upsets, jeez.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Keep an eye on Idaho State. They haven’t looked great thus far, but they’re terrific on the offensive boards, have a positive turnover margin, and have experienced hellish shooting luck thus far.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Montana State at Northern Arizona, January 11. This is the first of two, the other being February 6.
Big South
Favorites (50% or above): High Point
Contenders (25-50%): Longwood
Darkhorses (10% or above): Gardner-Webb
Wildcards (5% or above): Winthrop, Charleston Southern, Radford
This, unlike most, is actually pretty open for business. High Point is the nominal favorite, but because no one here is above HPU’s 239th in Torvik, basically anyone short of USC Upstate/UNC Asheville/Presbyterian is a realistic candidate to leap up and steal the title. Tip of the cap to anyone who figures this conference out, because I’m not sure I can.
CHAMPION: I’ll actually take Longwood to steal the regular season title, their second ever at D1.
TOURNAMENT: Longwood wins the regular season, but High Point is your conference tournament champion and very likely 16 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Is anyone a darkhorse when almost everyone can win it?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: High Point at Longwood, February 12. This is likely for the regular season title, and therefore, the 1 seed in the ever-important conference tournament.
Big West
Favorites (50% or above): UC Davis
Contenders (25-50%): UC Irvine, Hawaii
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Sadly, the women’s version of the Big West isn’t quite as fun as the men’s. There’s still some good going on, though, highlighted by a triumvirate at the top that are well ahead of everyone else. Hawaii has the best defense; UC Davis the best offense; UC Irvine perhaps the best all-around mix of the three. I think any of them could do it.
CHAMPION: I’ll guess UC Davis and Hawaii split the regular season title.
TOURNAMENT: Minor upset! For the second year in a row but just the third time in school history, it’s UC Irvine who wins the conference tournament.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Long Beach State has been terrific at simply generating lots of shots on the offensive end and is 2-0 in conference play thus far.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UC Davis at Hawaii, January 23. The trip to Hawaii is never an easy one, but especially one where you’re likely starting 8-0 in conference play and will have a huge target on your back.
CAA
Favorites (50% or above): Charleston
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Drexel
Wildcards (5% or above): North Carolina A&T, Stony Brook, Delaware
Charleston plays an enthralling style and has forced turnovers on 33% of opponent possessions, the sixth-highest rate in the nation. No one else in this league is even close! The problem: a lot of teams in this league are close offensively, because outside of easy points generated off turnovers, Charleston cannot score reliably at all. Still, they’ll have an edge on everyone else thanks to their defense. Drexel and Stony Brook both have top-100 defenses, too.
CHAMPION: Charleston takes it by two games over Drexel. In a shocker, Campbell finishes third.
TOURNAMENT: Fairly normal outcome here, as Charleston takes the conference tourney.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Campbell quietly graded out as the third-best team in this conference in non-con play and is the best in the conference at avoiding turnovers.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Charleston at Campbell, March 6. This is Charleston’s final road game of the season and is the only game among their final eight to have a single-digit spread.
Conference USA
Favorites (50% or above): Middle Tennessee
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
If Middle Tennessee loses this league, something’s gone horrifically wrong. This is a borderline top-50 team in a league where exactly three other teams are inside the top-150. The shortest spread for any MTSU game in conference play is at Liberty on March 6, where they’re currently favored by five points. It’s a bloodbath.
CHAMPION: MTSU, but they lose a game somewhere.
TOURNAMENT: It makes sense that in the WBB version of the Southland, MTSU wins the conference tournament without any serious challenge.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Liberty, the second-best team here, technically counts, I guess. Very good on the boards and they have a good defense.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: MTSU at Western Kentucky, January 18. This is the first of four games on MTSU’s conference slate where they’re single-digit favorites.
Horizon League
Favorites (50% or above): Cleveland State
Contenders (25-50%): Purdue Fort Wayne, Green Bay
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Neither Cleveland State nor Green Bay are quite as excellent as I’d hoped, which has allowed Purdue Fort Wayne to jump into the mix. PFW is +6.8 per 100 possessions in turnover margin, is 25th in 3PT%, and takes more threes than anyone else in the league. Fun team! I still think CSU and UWGB are that crucial bit better but as I’ve seen so far, that’s not a fully static opinion. It may change.
CHAMPION: Cleveland State survives by one game over Purdue Fort Wayne.
TOURNAMENT: Finally, a real shocker: Purdue Fort Wayne wins the Horizon League Tournament, their first NCAA Tournament bid in school history.
SUPER DARKHORSE: How about Detroit Mercy? They’re 4-0 in league play thus far and are very good at limiting second-chance opportunities for opponents. That’s intriguing when playing Cleveland State in particular.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Purdue Fort Wayne at Cleveland State, January 12. Well, how real are you, Mastodons?
MAAC
Favorites (50% or above): Quinnipiac, Fairfield
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Two-team races like these can be fun! Quinnipiac and Fairfield are both in the 80s at Torvik. Third-best team Manhattan, at time of writing, was 237th. That is a gigantic gap. Both would be favored over Manhattan by about 12.5 points on a neutral floor. As such, this is both boring and very exciting: there’s only two teams to care about, but the two teams play very differently and will tangle twice this year. I look forward to both, particularly the second game.
CHAMPION: Give me Quinnipiac by a game over Fairfield.
TOURNAMENT: Your champ, for the first time since 2019, is Q-Pac.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. It’s these two or nobody.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Fairfield at Quinnipiac, March 8. This will almost certainly decide the regular season title and the 1 seed. Cinema!
MAC
Favorites (50% or above): Ball State
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Buffalo
Wildcards (5% or above): Bowling Green, Kent State
I toyed with putting the MAC in the plausible multi-bid category. Ball State is a borderline top-50 team and has a decent resume, albeit not one that would have it in the field as of now. Buffalo is 12-0, the second-best team, but doesn’t have a resume that works at-large wise. The rest here is your standard fare: a lot of fine but flawed teams that do one or two things well but not much more. I do like Kent State’s defense and Bowling Green’s offense.
There’s one clear path to a two-bid league, though. Ball State has to go undefeated in conference play. At very worst, they are allowed to drop one game. That would settle them in at either 25-5 or 26-4, 17-1 or 18-0 MAC. They would own a Quad 2 road win over Northern Iowa, as well as a potential Quad 2 neutral site win over Texas A&M. In terms of sheer victory volume, they would have enough to get into First Four discussions with a conference tournament loss, especially in the final.
CHAMPION: Ball State goes 17-1 in conference play, getting to 25-5 overall, but loses to Kent State on the road on January 15.
TOURNAMENT: The ultimate test now goes into action: Kent State beats Ball State in the semifinal and goes on to win the conference tournament. Does the committee put in a 26-6 team without a Quad 1 victory? History tells us it’s unlikely, which would be a bummer. Now, if they’re 27-5 and lose here, I think we’re in a different spot.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Toledo is brutal to deal with on the boards and is a tough out in a one-off setting.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Ball State at Buffalo, January 11. This is Ball State’s first undefeated test. You can’t slip up the rest of the way and feel super safe. Unfortunate, but that’s how it works.
MEAC
Favorites (50% or above): Norfolk State
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Coppin State
Wildcards (5% or above): Howard
Norfolk State is a tough group that forces a lot of turnovers and is as aggressive as anyone you’ll watch. I like them! Their problem: Coppin State and Howard have emerged as surprising competitors who could be the reason this possibly best-ever Norfolk team doesn’t win the MEAC. Time will tell, but this is much more competitive than I anticipated a couple months back.
CHAMPION: Norfolk State goes 13-1 and brings it home.
TOURNAMENT: A surprise: Coppin State takes home the MEAC title with a title game upset.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I can be talked into UMES, who’s been really impressive at owning the boards in both directions and keeps opponent shot volume very low in general.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Norfolk State at Coppin State, February 22. One of two premier chances for Norfolk to slip up in conference play, the other being Howard on March 6.
Missouri Valley
Favorites (50% or above): Belmont
Contenders (25-50%): Northern Iowa, Murray State
Darkhorses (10% or above): Drake
Wildcards (5% or above): Missouri State
This one also got some consideration for multiple bids, but it wouldn’t work. Belmont and Northern Iowa, two top-70 teams, are both 6-6. Both did this against reasonably difficult schedules, but 6-6 is 6-6, and these records aren’t enough to generate enough for an at-large bid. Belmont badly needed to pick off 1-2 more wins in non-conference to be in business. They still could play their way into at-large consideration, but they’d have to get through conference play with two losses or less.
That’s difficult to do against one of the best mid-major conferences in existence. All of Northern Iowa, Drake, Murray State, and Missouri State are top-100 teams nationally, all of which have excellent offenses. Murray State in particular has been very impressive on offense. The reason Belmont’s ahead: they’re the only one that pairs a good offense with a good defense.
CHAMPION: I guess I’m good for a sucker bet: Murray State and Belmont share the title, just like the OVC days.
TOURNAMENT: Even crazier: in our simulation, neither won the conference tournament. That would be Northern Iowa.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Give a second look to UIC, who is 4-6 but has been brutally unlucky in close games.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Belmont at Northern Iowa, January 18. For a team that needs a signature win, this is the best shot they’ve got at a potential Quad 1 victory.
Mountain West
Favorites (50% or above): UNLV
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Colorado State
Unlike the men’s counterpart, this is a one-bid league. UNLV is 10-4 and almost inside the top 40 at Torvik, but their non-conference resulted in zero top-100 wins away from home and an ugly road loss to 125th-ranked Northwestern. Their equation is similar to others: gotta go 18-0 in conference play. At worst: 17-1. Wyoming, Colorado State, and San Diego State are all top-100 teams, but the distance from UNLV to second place is roughly the distance from second to sixth.
CHAMPION: UNLV wins the conference, but loses twice to finish 16-2.
TOURNAMENT: No at-large worries here, as UNLV wins the conference tournament.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The second-best team, in terms of 2024-25 performance thus far, is quietly Boise State, who rates out fifth in the analytics for now.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UNLV at Boise State, January 4. Gotta start somewhere. This is the first of six games where UNLV is between a 4-9 point favorite. Can you go 6-0? If so, you’re likely in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the conference tourney. If not, you better win that thing.
NEC
Favorites (50% or above): Fairleigh Dickinson
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
It’s one of the conferences playing basketball.
CHAMPION: Fairleigh Dickinson by a lot. They’ll go undefeated in conference play. Someone is legally required to win the other games, so I’ll guess Stonehill finishes second.
TOURNAMENT: Fairleigh Dickinson wins the final over Mercyhurst.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean, Stonehill isn’t a terrible team and plays decent offense. Probably the second-best unit in the league?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Fairleigh Dickinson at Mercyhurst, January 11. No joke: at a 7-point spread, this is the most likely loss for FDU all conference season. They are dominant.
OVC
Favorites (50% or above): Southern Indiana
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Tennessee Tech
Southern Indiana is the best team in this league by a sizable margin. Naturally, because of the NCAA’s archaic rules, they’re ineligible for the 2025 NCAA Tournament due to making the leap from D2 to D1. I’ve never understood this. Is the NCAA afraid of teams from Division 2 being too good? The records of D2 versus D1 across history don’t reflect this. Is it some sort of odd punishment for willing to make the leap from D2 to D1? If so, you’d think that would be a discouraging thing and not something resulting in D1 currently having 364 programs. Who knows.
By the way, this EXACT SAME SCENARIO happened last year and they still won’t fix it. Love my big dumb sport.
CHAMPION: Southern Indiana wins it by a game over Tennessee Tech.
TOURNAMENT: Southern Indiana wins the conference tournament, which means Tennessee Tech is your NCAA Tournament representative. What a stupid system.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Eastern Illinois is 3-0 in league play and has built a pretty salty defense.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Tennessee Tech at Southern Indiana, February 1. Tech beat USI last night at home by four. Can they do the double?
Patriot League
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Lehigh, Holy Cross
Darkhorses (10% or above): Colgate
Wildcards (5% or above): Army, Navy
This is a sea of fairly forgettable teams, but it’s a wide-open sea of forgettable ones, so who’s to say. Lehigh and Holy Cross are nominally ahead of the rest, but Colgate, Army, and Navy will all have a say in this, too. Don’t discount Bucknell, either, a team with very good interior defense. The winner of this conference is going to be a 14 or 15 seed, which is fine.
CHAMPION: Mild surprise here: based on to-date stats, I’d actually take Lehigh over a second-place tie between Holy Cross and Army.
TOURNAMENT: Conference tournament upset! Holy Cross is your March rep, just like last year.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Army feels underrated to me. They’re fantastic on defense, don’t give up second-chance opportunities at all, and win the math battle most nights.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Lehigh at Holy Cross, February 15 for obvious reasons.
Sun Belt
Favorites (50% or above): James Madison
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Old Dominion
Wildcards (5% or above): Louisiana
Apologies to these teams, but we’ve reached the point of these conference play primers where it feels like my fingers are about to fall off due to extreme amounts of typing. James Madison is a legit top-70 team nationally with an excellent defense. That’s probably going to fare pretty well in a conference with exactly zero top-100 offenses. Old Dominion and Louisiana are both fantastic on defense, too, but I do get a bit of Big Ten West syndrome looking at this. Can anyone score?
CHAMPION: No alarms and no surprises; James Madison wins it by two games over surprise second-place squad Coastal Carolina, the team with the only good offense in the league.
TOURNAMENT: Upset! Old Dominion wins the conference tournament and gets their first March bid since 2008.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I played my hand a bit, but Coastal Carolina has easily the best offense in the conference. If they can have even a mediocre defense they’re in business.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: James Madison at Old Dominion, February 1. This has pretty big importance for JMU’s own resume, actually. They don’t own much in the way of great wins, but a 10-4 record thus far is 0.7 wins better than an average bubble team would do.
SoCon
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): UNCG, East Tennessee State, Chattanooga, Wofford
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Furman
This one has no teams ranked above 171st but six teams at 234th or higher. You guessed it: wide-open. The SoCon also has an odd setup where two programs (The Citadel and VMI) don’t play women’s basketball, but this sort of weird divide happens in other sports, too. UTC and Furman don’t play baseball. UNCG doesn’t offer football. The Citadel, VMI, and Wofford are the only SoCon members to offer women’s rifle. (shoulder shrug)
CHAMPION: UNCG by a game.
TOURNAMENT: Predictably, a weird conference had a weird champion. Hypothetical congrats to 5-seed Furman on taking this one home. It would be their first bid since 2000!
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean…is anyone a darkhorse when everyone is?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UNC Greensboro at Wofford, January 16. This is probably the best game? Maybe? They’re all about the same.
SWAC
Favorites (50% or above): Alabama A&M
Contenders (25-50%): Southern
Darkhorses (10% or above): Grambling State
Wildcards (5% or above): none
SWACsketball is always a joy in some sense, but you have to squint to find it in this edition. Every offense is between bad and horrific. The best team here is Alabama A&M, which happened to be the only team to achieve a winning record in non-conference play. Even the defenses aren’t quite as chaotic as I would like. Your Chaos Ball Team of the Year is Grambling State, who averages 82 possessions a game, refuses to take threes, and either forces a turnover or commits a foul on over half of all possessions.
CHAMPION: Alabama A&M may take it by three or four games. They’re the only one that’s looked to have a pulse.
TOURNAMENT: Pretty normal outcome for these: the favorite didn’t win. Congratulations to Southern on their seventh bid in school history.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Texas Southern has the second-best offense in the league.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Alabama A&M at Southern, March 8. The only game AAMU isn’t favored in!
Southland
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Southeastern Louisiana, Lamar, Stephen F. Austin
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Not sure what to make of this one. The two best teams are SFA and Lamar, and SFA’s offense looks truly special in a way that mid-major offenses rarely do. The problem: they’ve already lost a game, and Southeastern Louisiana is 2-0 with a superior defense. There’s other teams lurking here that could be a pest to conference standings: TAMU-Corpus Christi (top-50 defense), Incarnate Word (top-100 defense), and even Northwestern State, who’s allowed the fifth-fewest three-point attempts in America.
CHAMPION: This eventually shakes itself out: Stephen F. Austin beats out Lamar by one game for the title and Southeastern Louisiana by two.
TOURNAMENT: The second-best team, Lamar, takes home the crown for their first bid since 2010 and their third bid ever. Did you know they made the Elite Eight in 1991? This is because they committed approximately 41 recruiting violations per day, but to be honest, it’s still worthy of a tip of the cap. 10 seed to Elite Eight isn’t easy!
SUPER DARKHORSE: None of note. The top three do feel truly separated from the rest of the pack.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Stephen F. Austin at Lamar, January 11. Not really a must-win for SFA, but when you’ve already lost one to UTRGV on the road you can’t really afford a second loss in mid-January in a tightly-packed title race.
WAC
Favorites (50% or above): Grand Canyon
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Abilene Christian
Wildcards (5% or above): Tarleton State
I’m not trying to be rude here, but I do wonder at what point the average basketball fan takes into account school budgets and expectations versus what they’re seeing on the court. Grand Canyon’s women’s hoops budget is double anyone else’s in the WAC. As such, they’re going to be the favorite in this league more often than not. In this sense, I do tip the cap to Molly Miller for doing the job she’s asked to do. On the other hand: how much do we really know when you lost to the two top-50 opponents you played by a combined 26 points and you won’t play another until March?
CHAMPION: The only question is if Grand Canyon goes 15-1 or 16-0.
TOURNAMENT: Grand Canyon breezes through to the NCAAs.
SUPER DARKHORSE: If Utah Valley can ever make a three, they could be pretty interesting as a team that forces the 11th-highest TO% and does very well on the boards.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Grand Canyon at Abilene Christian, January 16. Best chance at a GCU loss, I guess.
WCC
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Portland, San Francisco, Washington State
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Oregon State, Gonzaga
Last one! Portland could break into at-large territory with a WCC run of 18-2 or better, which isn’t irrational but likely won’t happen, especially given a home loss to Gonzaga last night. Plus, there’s some very good competition for Maisie Burnham and crew in this conference. San Francisco is inside the Torvik top 100. Washington State is on the cusp. Oregon State, in the wildcards section, just beat Portland AT Portland on December 30 in overtime. It’s going to be a fun run to the finish, and this is one of the more exciting one-bid leagues in general.
CHAMPION: I’ll guess San Francisco and Portland end up sharing the title at 16-4 or 17-3. No at-large bid created.
TOURNAMENT: One final upset special for the road: Washington State plucks this bid out of thin air to get back to the Tournament after a one-year break.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None, really.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Washington State at San Francisco, January 16. Feels like a regular season title race eliminator, possibly? I’m excited.
THE BRACKET
If all of this came to fruition, which it will not, here’s what your bracket would look like. Enjoy.
