The 2024-25 conference play/NCAA Tournament primer for all 31 men's basketball conferences
The Carpal Tunnel Tournament
Happy New Year, everybody. This is Year Three of a newsletter tradition: re-evaluating every single conference at the New Year, both on a national (for multi-bid leagues) and regional (who’s going to actually win the conference) level. Given that conference play has still yet to begin for over half the conferences, this is a useful snapshot of where everyone stands at this halfway point of the season.
Anyway, the below post is going to be very, very long, so if that’s not your thing, I will not blame you for CTRL + F'ing your league of choice and/or exiting out of this post immediately. Still, as someone who covers college basketball at-large, I do find it useful to see where everyone’s at a hair over two months before Selection Sunday. All percentages are via Bart Torvik’s site, by the way.
This year’s ranges on the NATIONAL level are slightly different. LOCKS are those at 97% or above to make the NCAA Tournament. We have 18 of those so far. LIKELIES have a 70-97% shot to get in. Why 70-97%? I don’t know, sounded good. (There are 20 of these.) Then there’s the BUBBLES (those between 30-70% to get in), the UNLIKELIES (5-30%), and MAYBE NEXT YEARS (under 5%).
Then there’s the REGIONAL side for all 31 leagues. This will represent the conference’s FAVORITES (those with 50% or better odds of at least a shared title), CONTENDERS (25-50%), DARKHORSES (10-25%), and WILDCARDS (5-10%). You don’t need to know those at 4.9% or lower barring a real shocker. This year, I didn’t list the individual percentages for each, instead choosing to separate into the categories and let those speak for themselves. More fun to leave a little mystery.
This is nearly 10,000 words long, so let’s get started.
Also, subscribe. You gotta give. This one is free!
By the way, as implied by the title, yes, there’s a women’s version of this coming Friday.
THE MEGA-MINDS
SEC
NATIONAL
LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas
BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Missouri
UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): LSU
MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): South Carolina
Expected tournament teams: 11.9 (#1 nationally)
11.9 teams. In an average simulation of the rest of the season, this one conference makes up almost 18% of the entire field. If the Tournament happened today, they’d have nearly a 4-in-5 chance of generating at least one Final Four team if not two. It’s almost even money (roughly +155 at the Stats By Will Sportsbook) that they have the national champion. We may never see a conference this stout again.
Frankly, I hope we don’t and I hope this group underperforms the rest of the way. It’s only interesting how many teams you can dump in to a certain extent. Let’s take Arkansas for example, who sits 43rd on KenPom, is 10-2 against the 234th-best schedule, and has about a 2-in-3 shot of making the field. If Arkansas has the record they’re expected to - 19-12, 8-10 SEC - they’re probably getting in. That is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BORING that I cannot handle it.
Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure - 12-1, around 40 spots lower in KenPom but with basically the same resume - probably has to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and go 27-4, 15-3 overall to sneak into the field ahead of them. Nasty. Still, this is obviously one of the greatest collections of overall talent we’ll ever see, with no fewer than four uber-serious title contenders. I reluctantly tip my cap.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Auburn
Contenders (25-50%): Tennessee
Darkhorses (10% or above): Florida, Alabama
Wildcards (5% or above): Texas A&M
If you remove all preseason priors I think Florida gets a little boost here. Auburn is #1 with no preseason influence, Tennessee #4, and Florida #6. They’ve looked the part of a legitimate national title contender. Alabama, meanwhile, has looked like a top-10 team at #10 overall…and would land fourth on the odds board. Tough year at the top. Even Kentucky, who’s played at a top-15 level, sits a distant fifth.
Regressing these to the SA-SVI ratings I talked about previously creates some interesting results. They’d have Auburn and Tennessee 1-2 to no surprise, but Alabama would leap Florida for fourth. If these were the conference standings, as projected by our Shot Volume/Efficiency combo, it would make for some serious #discourse, which I always love:
Auburn
Tennessee
Alabama
Florida
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
Texas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
LSU
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Now, do I think that happens exactly? Of course not. But is it plausible we’ve pumped up certain teams on highly inflated 3PT% deltas? That might be the case for groups like Kentucky (+7.9%), Texas (+8.4%), Georgia (+8.5%), and especially Oklahoma (+9.9%). That’s when it gets fun. If Oklahoma turns a 13-0 start into a 6-12 SEC run, is that enough for a Tournament bid? We’ll find out.
Predictions!
CHAMPION: Auburn wins the title by a game over Tennessee.
TOURNAMENT: Eleven teams get in thanks to teams decimating their own records in conference play: the top six, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia, and two of Ole Miss/Arkansas/Missouri/Vanderbilt/Oklahoma. My best guess here is Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, both of whom hit up the First Four.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I don’t think Mississippi State is getting nearly enough credit for A) playing at a top-20 level B) having an 11-1 record with a top-10 WAB. This is despite getting outshot from three so far, by the way. In a league like this, close game luck could swing you several standings positions. If State gets lucky, is it that outlandish they go 12-6 or 13-5 in conference play and cement themselves as a 3 seed or higher nationally?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Tennessee at Auburn, January 25. This is on track to decide the conference title race. In the event of a tie, the SEC’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and it’s the only time all year the conference’s two best teams play one another.
Big Ten
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Oregon, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Michigan
LIKELIES: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Nebraska (!!!)
BUBBLES: Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Northwestern
UNLIKELIES: Indiana
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: USC, Rutgers, Minnesota, Washington
Expected tournament teams: 10.8 (#2 nationally)
This is the extreme downside of the mega-conference era. At the time of writing, no Big Ten team resides inside KenPom’s top 10, and only one (Maryland) is in the top 15. But, regrettably, strength in numbers is a real thing. The conference has placed six of its members inside the leading metric’s top 25, five more inside the top 40, and a total of 13 of 18 inside the top 50. The bottom four here are all worse than the SEC’s worst but none is a true slouch; #115 Minnesota would likely win around 7 or 8 conference games in the ACC and may go 3-17 or 4-16 here.
All of this isn’t criminal, obviously, but I wouldn’t describe it as enjoyable, either. There are no obviously great teams. The three that feel better than everyone else all have reasons for skepticism, either centered around the head coach (Maryland) or the actual wins and losses (Illinois, Michigan). This is a much more interesting conference race than a national one.
The problem: because it’s so wide-open, a ton of teams are going to build quality resumes since more than half the games are Quadrant 1 opportunities. As an example, look at Michigan’s schedule:
It doesn’t feel like these should all be such high-quality chances, but they will be. That’s 11 out of 18 games with the hypothetical chance at a Quad 1 win and 16 of 18 that are Quad 2 or higher. This is mega-mid, but it will benefit everyone involved. Man, if only there was a college football version of this exact thing.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Michigan, UCLA
Darkhorses (10% or above): Illinois, Oregon, Maryland
Wildcards (5% or above): Michigan State, Purdue
Basically, any of seven different teams could win the regular season championship and no one would experience any real surprise. There are 13 of a possible 18 with a 14% chance or better of a top-four finish, but no one higher than 83% (Michigan). No team has a better than 26% shot of winning this title outright. It is the Talladega conference.
I try and highlight one interesting story from the SA-SVI goof I’ve worked up in all of these; easily, the most interesting one is that it has Purdue almost 50 spots lower than KenPom. I don’t personally believe in this! But I can see why it hates the Boilermakers: negative turnover and rebounding margin, just +1.6% 2PT (admittedly against a very tough schedule), and a +7.5% 3PT delta that helped them avoid potential losses to Yale (48%-31%) and Alabama (56%-31%). I need Purdue to shore these up ASAP to feel alright about them moving forward, because they’re walking a thin line.
CHAMPION: Illinois and Michigan share the regular season title. There’s also a tie for third between Michigan State, UCLA, and Maryland.
TOURNAMENT: God, who knows. I will take a wild guess here and say ten get in: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Oregon all in whatever order, followed by Penn State, Nebraska…uh, Wisconsin….I guess ultimately, I do believe in Purdue figuring it out to some extent but they’re obviously not on the level this year. If there’s an 11th it will be one of Iowa, Ohio State, or Northwestern. I imagine 17-14, 8-12 Indiana will do it for absolutely nobody.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I know betting odds aren’t everything, and I don’t bet myself, but I’m stunned you can get Illinois at or around +800 at most sportsbooks to win the league. I think that’s a great bet. Only Maryland has performed better with all preseason priors removed. Now, in the unbalanced slate that the B1G offers, they do have one of the tougher slates. If you’d like a team that plays a lesser schedule and is undervalued, Michigan State is always lurking.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Illinois at Michigan, March 2. This is late enough in the year that it feels like it’ll swing the standings in some way. Maybe it won’t, but in a restrictor plate conference I went with the most obvious of about 17 options.
Big 12
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Iowa State, Houston, Kansas
LIKELIES: Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Baylor, Arizona, West Virginia, BYU
BUBBLES: none?
UNLIKELIES: UCF
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Arizona State, Utah, TCU, UCF, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Expected tournament teams: 8.1 (#3 nationally)
This is the rare conference that has very obvious tiers. Tier 1 of ISU/Houston/KU feels legitimately separate from the four second-tier teams and so on. Now, I don’t think Arizona State feels fully separate from the bottom six, but at worst you can turn that into a seven-team fourth tier. The sea of mid!
The real story is the Big 12 becoming a pretty distant second to the SEC. I think they end up above the Big Ten at year’s end, but their theory of conference expansion was centered around adding more for basketball than football. Utah’s made a national championship game in my lifetime. Arizona won one. Houston was a tremendous get, as was BYU. Even Colorado, who’s scuffed about the last couple of seasons, still has a great home court and is frequently competitive.
It’s actually the older standbys that have failed them. Kansas State’s exercise in talent over fit has been a gigantic miss. Oklahoma State is in Year Zero. TCU appears off. Baylor and Texas Tech are both good teams that don’t feel like title contenders. These are minor complaints, but when you’re used to being the best of the best, slight misses like these can cause an overall drop.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Houston
Contenders (25-50%): Iowa State
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, BYU
I think this is too heavily slanted towards Houston, but I am fine with trusting Houston until I have clear and obvious reasons not to. I don’t think they’ll be the #1 team in America this year but ending up somewhere between #3 and #8 on KenPom feels right. As such, they’ll be in contention for the title yet again. Iowa State has been even better and feels like the lead candidate to take this for me.
Kansas is interesting. On one hand, the Jayhawks entered the season AP #1 for the second year in a row, and if arguing on talent alone, you can make the case that they or Alabama have the most purely talented roster in America. On fit, we’re seeing very similar issues to what we saw last year. I think they’re better than 2023-24, but they still don’t produce turnovers, generate many offensive rebounds, or get to the foul line often. This particular edition of KU feels hard capped at, like, 8th-best nationally. They’re more accurately in a range of being the 11th-19th best team to me.
Much like the SEC, there won’t be any obvious nights off. Oklahoma State in road games figures to have serious trouble, but at home, they have a 41% shot of picking off one of Houston, Iowa State, or Texas Tech. No game here is a true gimme, which means the entire season will be worth one’s time. Just like it always is!
CHAMPION: Houston and Iowa State share the regular season title. Arizona surprises most everyone and finishes third.
TOURNAMENT: My preseason prediction was that the Big Three (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12) combine to get 29 of the 68 bids. I’ll stick with that and say the B12 is responsible for eight: those top seven plus West Virginia over BYU. If it’s all nine I will offer no surprise.
SUPER DARKHORSE: People despise when it’s brought up as a talking point, but luck is a real thing. Negative luck especially can be pretty real. As such, did you know that a team with Arizona’s stats and scoring margin would expect to be 8-3 and not 6-5? UCLA was an obvious coin-flip loss, but how about Oklahoma winning a game by 5 despite outshooting Arizona 41%-26% from deep? I’m still a serious believer in them. Against a top-30 schedule, they’ve posted the fifth-best rebounding margin in the nation and the 16th-best 2PT% gap. This is a very good team with awful late-game luck. If it turns around at all, them to win the Big 12 at +2200 is not insane.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Iowa State at Texas Tech, January 11. Odd pick? Maybe. But this is hugely impactful for one key reason. If Iowa State pulls off this road win, they’ll be odds-on favorites to start conference play 8-0. Texas Tech, meanwhile, would have a huge feather in its cap for multiple reasons. If Houston and Iowa State tie, TTU gets Houston twice and ISU once. Split with Houston, win this, and suddenly you’re 2-1 in tiebreaker scenarios for third or fourth or whatever place.
THE BIG FIVE’S NOT-SO-BIG TWO
ACC
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Duke
LIKELIES: Pittsburgh, Clemson, North Carolina
BUBBLES: SMU
UNLIKELIES: Louisville
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: The other 12 teams in the conference
Expected tournament teams: 4.3 (#4 nationally)
Rancid, rancid conference. No one wants this or needs it. The ACC is reaching a critical mass of sorts that the SEC once did when it was Kentucky and Everyone Else, but here the problem is the football sucking, too. All around, this feels like a conference slowly losing its identity for the good of functionally nobody. At the pace it’s going, certainly money-wise, basketball will continue to be the domain of Duke, UNC, and occasionally an interloper.
There are things to watch and care for here, though. I’ve staked my claim on Louisville being better than their resume indicates. I like watching SMU more than I thought I would. Florida State is surprisingly competent. Stanford’s year one of Kyle Smith seems fine so far. There are some true out-and-out failures - Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, etc. - but basically everyone else has something to care about. If you squint. And if you can remember what channel number ACC Network is.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Duke
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Pittsburgh, Clemson
If Duke fails to win the ACC it’ll be a shocker. 91% is the same rate at which 2 seeds have beaten 15 seeds since 2000, and Duke luckily has zero experience with a game like that going wrong. In the event that someone is a Lehigh-style individual, Pitt and Clemson have produced the best cases. Duke has an 81% shot of winning the ACC outright, per Torvik.
More interesting will be the race for a top-four position in conference play. Even with the rapid hollowing of the ACC, Pitt was the first top-four finisher since 2010 to not make the NCAA Tournament. It’s still pretty meaningful to go 14-6 or so in the ACC. Duke is obviously at nearly 100% to be top four, but Pitt, Clemson, SMU, UNC, and Louisville are all between 48-75% to get it done. Only three of them, at best, can do so…and this leaves out a surprise leap from the rest of the conference, like Notre Dame, Stanford, NC State, or even FSU.
CHAMPION: Duke wins the conference title by at least three games. In a fun surprise, all of UNC, Louisville, and Pitt finish with the same record in a three-way tie for second.
TOURNAMENT: Regrettably, I expect the ACC to get five teams in. They shouldn’t, and it will be highly upsetting when they do, but here we are. Duke is obvious and I’ll guess they end up a 1 seed by sheer accumulation of wins. As mentioned above I’d say all of UNC, Louisville, and Pitt get in. For the fifth team…boy, I don’t know. I actually lean SMU because their paths to victory have looked more sustainable than Clemson.
SUPER DARKHORSE: There is no obvious darkhorse to win the title. But! If you squint, there’s rationale to take a flier on Notre Dame to finish top four. They get Duke, UNC, Clemson and Pitt just one time each.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Duke at North Carolina, March 8. This likely will not matter at all for regular season title purposes. However, for a UNC team seeking as many Q1 wins as they can get after a 2-5 start against the grouping (and the two wins being by a combined four points), this will be the last meaningful opportunity to get one.
Big East
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Marquette, UConn
LIKELIES: St. John’s
BUBBLES: Creighton
UNLIKELIES: Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Georgetown
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Providence, DePaul, Seton Hall
Expected tournament teams: 3.5 (#5 nationally)
The star has fallen off of this conference fast this year in what I thought might be a prove-it year for the non-UConn teams. Marquette has picked up the slack and looks like the best team in the league, but even St. John’s, who I like, has played at about the level of a 5 or 6 seed. No one else is on the plus side of the Tournament. They might only get three teams in the field again, which would be a little surprising given how highly they carried themselves in the summer.
Still, in the face of numerous (Creighton) giant (Xavier) flops (Butler) that have swung (Providence) and missed (Seton Hall), there are some success stories to point to. Marquette and UConn will be in the Tournament. St. John’s probably will be. Villanova, who everyone left buried after two weeks, is quietly 8-5 and has had a top-5 offense this season. (Don’t ask about their defense.) DePaul looks competent! Georgetown is improved! Seton Hall could have the worst offense in Power Five history! It’s all happening here.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Marquette
Contenders (25-50%): UConn
Darkhorses (10% or above): St. John’s
Wildcards (5% or above): None (Creighton closest)
We’re in a real Beauty, Eye, Beholder, Etc. situation with the Big East. On one hand, you have a quality three-way title fight between three teams rated roughly equal by most metrics, all of which have a top-four player in the Big East. It sets up for a great final week where Marquette plays at UConn on March 4 and hosts St. John’s on March 8. They all get to play each other still, and that’s a nice thing.
The problem will be the games involving the eight other teams. Now, this isn’t to say that none of them will be able to jump to Tournament-level play, but in the event they can’t do that - the most likely case - you have six out of a possible 110 games that anyone who isn’t a fan of one of the teams will be genuinely excited to watch. More likely, you’ll have people that will forget the average game in the Big East is being played. Which, if you’re curious, is currently Georgetown at Butler on February 15.
CHAMPION: A complete and total shrug of the shoulders from my end. I guess I lean Marquette by a hair. If anyone gets out of this league better than 17-3 it will require some close game luck.
TOURNAMENT: I thought longer about this than I should have and ultimately landed on three teams making the field from this conference, bringing your Power Five total to 37 of a possible 68. That means after the other 26 bids are sorted out you get to give five (5) at-large bids to anyone else. I’m beginning to see the upside of expansion. If there’s a fourth I must go with
SUPER DARKHORSE: Villanova. I hate the way they are coached, I hate how reliant everything is on Eric Dixon. By the same token: they have Eric Dixon and a top-5 offense. If Villanova figures out defense at all, it is by no means improbable to picture them grabbing a fourth-place conference finish, entering the Big East Tournament at 18-13 (11-9 BE) or 19-12 (12-8), suddenly being an upset away from a First Four spot.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: St. John’s at Marquette, March 8. On the final day of the Big East schedule, this game might decide the conference title.
THE POTENTIAL MULTI-BIDS
Mountain West
NATIONAL
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: Utah State
BUBBLES: San Diego State, Boise State, New Mexico
UNLIKELIES: Nevada, UNLV
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Colorado State, Wyoming, San Jose State, Air Force, Fresno State
Expected tournament teams: 2.3 (#6 nationally)
These are turbulent times for a great conference. Utah State has established itself as an early frontrunner with a very good non-conference resume; simulate the season ten times from here and nine of those would have Utah State in the field. Everyone else has some number or variety of problems to deal with.
San Diego State has wins over Houston and Creighton but possesses an awful offense. New Mexico owns one great win over UCLA and a horrendous home loss to New Mexico State that tanked their resume. Boise State has nothing terrible, really, but their signature wins over Clemson and Saint Mary’s aren’t aging as well as hoped. Nevada’s well underwater as is UNLV. For once, this will be an uphill battle to find three teams to make the Big Dance.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Utah State
Contenders (25-50%): Boise State
Darkhorses (10% or above): New Mexico, San Diego State
Wildcards (5% or above): None (UNLV closest)
The…good? news is that as ever, conference play will be a roulette wheel. Utah State is the nominal favorite, but all of San Diego State, Boise, and New Mexico have at least a 22% shot at the regular season title at the time of writing. There’s actually a path to the MWC Moneyballing their way to four bids as such; we’ll see.
CHAMPION: My guess here is Utah State by a game over Boise, though with the note they haven’t played each other yet.
TOURNAMENT: I ultimately lean in the direction of the MWC getting in three, because teams will accumulate some good wins over the course of the season. I’ll take Utah State, Boise, and San Diego State to get in, leaving UNM out by a hair.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one I love here, but if you want a non-top four team that could shake things up, Wyoming looks like a borderline top-100 team that could cause standings issues.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Utah State at Boise State, February 26. This feels like the finishing move in one direction or another.
West Coast
NATIONAL
LOCKS: Gonzaga
LIKELIES: none
BUBBLES: Saint Mary’s
UNLIKELIES: San Francisco, Washington State, Oregon State, Santa Clara
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific, San Diego, Portland
Expected tournament teams: 2.1 (#7 nationally)
Gonzaga a LOCK?!? Yes, freaks, they’re in. Gonzaga has blowout wins over Baylor and San Diego State, a good-not-great non-con resume, and can afford a few slip-ups in WCC play, which I don’t see coming anyway. They’re favored by less than six points twice in all of conference play and figure to win their first five games in the league with ease. A 1 seed is unlikely, obviously, but a 5 seed seems about right, just like last year.
Everything else here is a question mark. Saint Mary’s didn’t flub non-con as hard as last year but failed to take care of a couple of big opportunities to move themselves further into the field. All of USF, Wazzu, Oregon State, and Santa Clara are good-to-pretty-good teams that don’t have the resumes fully there just yet. It’s a weird conference with arguably six of the 75 best teams in the sport but only one of the 40.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Gonzaga
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): San Francisco, Washington State, Saint Mary’s
Wildcards (5% or above): Oregon State
As is usual, Gonzaga is your overwhelming favorite to win this league. If any of these alternate options can keep it close, they’ll help themselves immensely for March purposes. Obviously, whoever picks off Gonzaga has the best odds.
CHAMPION: Gonzaga wins the league and goes either 16-2 or 17-1 overall. Saint Mary’s and San Fran tie for second.
TOURNAMENT: It’s time to get controversial. I will take three teams from the WCC for the fourth time in conference history: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, and San Francisco. These teams are all Tournament quality, and all will hopefully get in. I’d also guess USF is First Four material.
SUPER DARKHORSE: We can count San Francisco here, yes? Their 11-3 isn’t a great 11-3 but they beat Boise State and Loyola Chicago, nearly picked off both Memphis and Bradley, and have played like a top-50 team this year with all priors removed.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Gonzaga at Oregon State, January 16. This is Gonzaga’s first real shot to get beaten in conference play.
Atlantic 10
NATIONAL
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: Dayton
BUBBLES: VCU, St. Bonaventure
UNLIKELIES: Saint Joseph’s, George Mason, Rhode Island, Davidson
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: everyone else?
Expected tournament teams: 1.7 (#8 nationally)
Odd conference here. The A-10 has a 65% shot at an at-large team, per Torvik, but it’s almost entirely reliant on Dayton being said team. They’re the clear favorite thanks to a great non-conference performance. St. Bonaventure also sits above the cutline for now, but has weaker metrics. Everyone else has to make up some room by overperforming in conference play. Of course, someone does this every single year, but exactly who it is is rarely known. Last year’s were teams like Loyola and Duquesne. This year’s could be…I don’t know, George Mason and Davidson?
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Dayton, St. Bonaventure
Darkhorses (10% or above): VCU, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s
Wildcards (5% or above): none
The upside of Dayton’s non-conference work is that they’ve built up a great at-large resume; the downside is that they really aren’t distancing themselves from their competition. The top three here all have at least a 30% shot at a conference title, with everyone from Davidson on up at least at 5%. It’s going to be a wild ride yet again.
CHAMPION: Something bizarre always happens in conference play here. I’ll guess Dayton and George Mason share it somehow?
TOURNAMENT: They’ll get in two. Dayton will be one. Whoever wins A-10 Roulette gets the other. Congratulations to…uhhh…the Bonnies?
SUPER DARKHORSE: George Mason has tremendous shot volume metrics, even adjusted for schedule. They’re more like a top-60 or even top-50 team than many think. Keep an eye on them.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Dayton at VCU, March 7. As always, serious respect to the A-10 for managing to have a gigantic final weekend almost every year.
THE CONTROVERSIAL CASE
American
NATIONAL
LOCKS: none
LIKELIES: Memphis
BUBBLES: none
UNLIKELIES: North Texas, Florida Atlantic, Wichita State
MAYBE NEXT YEARS: everyone else
Expected tournament teams: 1.5 (#9 nationally)
Here’s the thing: there is only one team with a really good shot at getting in, and it’s Memphis. They have a 92% shot of making it as an at-large, per Torvik, which doesn’t meet lock status but does make them pretty likely to be an eventual representative in the field of 68. Hey, check out this graph from last year, by the way:
Despite the sixth-best resume in the sport by WAB, Memphis sits 46th in Torvik’s ratings. They’ve got a negative TO margin, a negative rebound margin, and are outshooting opponents by all of 0.3% from two. How are they 10-3? Well, they’ve shot 40.2% from three with a roster expected to shoot 33% based on career numbers. They’re 5-0 in games decided by six or less and have the scoring margin of a 7-6 or 8-5 team. None of this is criminal, and there’s usually a couple of teams like this each season.
But. Last year on New Year’s Day, Memphis was 11-2 and ranked 13th in WAB. They had a negative rebound margin, near-even turnover margin, and enjoyed very good 3PT% luck from opponents. They finished 22-10, outside of the Tournament. We’ll see.
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): Memphis
Contenders (25-50%): North Texas
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): FAU, Wichita State
Now, Memphis has pretty good odds to roll on over this conference and at least get a share of the AAC title. So did FAU last year on this date, and that didn’t happen. The AAC produces a lot of odd outcomes that often make little sense. Memphis failing to win the title wouldn’t be that weird, though they’re the favorite for now.
CHAMPION: North Texas wins it at 14-4. Memphis, FAU, and UAB all somehow end up in a three-way tie for second.
TOURNAMENT: Here’s the controversy: I think these guys are getting one team in. Right now, they’ve got a 54% shot for an at-large, per Torvik, which I’d argue is reliant on if you think Memphis can continue to shoot almost 41% from three and get 10+ more free throw attempts than opponents every game. Whoever wins the conference tournament will get the bid. If Memphis goes 12-6 or worse, this is a one-bid league.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m an idiot, but I can’t give up on UAB just yet. No real reason.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Memphis at Florida Atlantic, January 2. Well, is Memphis going to handle this like adults, or are they going to do the same thing they’ve done for Penny’s entire tenure?
EVERYONE ELSE
For these, in situations where there’s not an obvious favorite, I do my favorite thing: ol’ reliable Random.ORG picks a number between 1-100, of which I assign to the Torvik odds board and see what matches. Just FYI in case there’s an odd pick!
America East
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): UMass Lowell, Bryant
Darkhorses (10% or above): Maine, UMBC, Albany, Vermont
Wildcards (5% or above): none
For the first time in nearly a decade, Vermont is not the clear and obvious favorite to win the America East. Now, this is as of January, and usually by March, a disappointing non-conference performance ends up pointless as Vermont wins 14 games in conference play. This year feels different, and John Becker has admitted as such. The most likely candidates to step up are Bryant or UMass Lowell. Or, delightfully, Maine.
CHAMPION: Bryant and UMass Lowell split the regular season title at 12-4 or 13-3.
TOURNAMENT: Usually whoever the best team is wins the league, but that’s also typically Vermont. The Random.ORG champion is Bryant.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I’m an idiot, but I can’t give up on Vermont just yet. Just like UAB, no real reason.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Bryant at UMBC, January 30 and UMass Lowell at UMBC, February 1. This 48-hour stretch could decide a few things. One: can UMBC steal the regular season crown? Two: if Bryant and UML tie, would their record against UMBC be a tiebreaker?
Atlantic Sun
Favorites (50% or above): Lipscomb
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Eastern Kentucky, FGCU
Wildcards (5% or above): North Alabama, Jacksonville, North Florida
Lipscomb has easily been the best team in the ASun so far and looks like the only squad capable of giving someone serious run in the NCAA Tournament. The follow-up question: who’s their top competition? My best guess is North Alabama but there’s no clear answer.
CHAMPION: Lipscomb wins the league by three games.
TOURNAMENT: Lipscomb is your champion. Hopefully.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The team that actually rates out second-best here, by our SA-SVI numbers, is North Alabama. Now, they’ve got a horrid interior defense, but they grade out exceptionally in turnover margin and beat East Carolina on the road in mid-December. Not a bad squad.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Lipscomb at Eastern Kentucky, February 18. This is the last real test for Lipscomb pre-conference tournament.
Big Sky
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Northern Colorado, Montana State, Montana
Darkhorses (10% or above): Idaho
Wildcards (5% or above): Weber State, Northern Arizona
This is wiiiiiiiide open. No team has better than a 24% shot (NoCo) of walking away with the title outright, and the average expectation here is 1.3 regular season champions. Someone probably will win it outright, but no one has established themselves as the obvious favorite. This is a conference loaded with future 15 seeds.
CHAMPION: Anyway, Northern Colorado should run away with this. Their underlying metrics are easily the best of anyone’s in the league, unless my darkhorse pick works out.
TOURNAMENT: Random.ORG says it’s Montana State’s year. Again.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I gave out a Buy Low Recommendation on one Idaho State weeks ago. I don’t think it will work out, but these guys still rate out fabulously on the boards, have a quality interior defense, and are 3PT% regression away from a significantly improved record. I’ll take the W here if they finish >.500 in conference play.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Northern Colorado at Montana State, January 9. First shot fired in the battle for the top spot.
Big South
Favorites (50% or above): High Point
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Longwood, UNC Asheville, Winthrop, Radford
Wildcards (5% or above): Gardner Webb
I was under the impression that High Point was mildly disappointing this year, but they’re still >50% to win this league and >40% outright. Still, it’s less decisive than it was two months ago, and there’s several real challengers here. High Point has the best unit by far here (their offense) but might have one of the five worst units (their defense).
CHAMPION: I still favor High Point by a hair. Maybe over Winthrop?
TOURNAMENT: The team you’d expect to win finally comes through, per Random.ORG: High Point. Future 13 seed? 14 seed?
SUPER DARKHORSE: As noted I think Winthrop might have some value here; they rate out as the second-best team in the conference with the fourth-best odds.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: High Point at Winthrop, February 15. None of these games are that different from any other, but this is the best one to my eyes. Reporting trip for this newsletter, maybe?
Big West
Favorites (50% or above): UC San Diego
Contenders (25-50%): UC Irvine
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
This looked like it would be UC Irvine’s conference to lose, but UC San Diego has come in well above expectation. Either would be a fabulous NCAA Tournament entry. Irvine’s defense is legitimately one of the 20 best units in America; UC San Diego has a top 100 offense and defense. They’ve firmly made the leap from excellent D2 program to excellent D1 program. Everyone else here is playing for third.
CHAMPION: It’s dead-even between UCSD and UCI for me. I’ll cop out and say they play to a draw at 17-3 or so.
TOURNAMENT: For the first time in school history, it’ll be UC San Diego that gets in, likely as a very dangerous 12 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one. Actually, Cal State Northridge rates out as the clear third-best team in the league for me. Keep an eye on them?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UC Irvine at UCSD, January 11 and UCSD at UC Irvine, February 8. For once, I don’t have TV complaints about these! They’re both on ESPNU. That’s good to see.
CAA
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Charleston, UNC Wilmington, Elon
Darkhorses (10% or above): Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern
Wildcards (5% or above): none
There are six teams here with very legitimate shots to take home the regular season crown, which should tell you all you need to know about this year’s CAA. I can’t identify a team as being substantially better than anyone else. Charleston has the best resume as it stands, but I’m not sure they’re clearly better than the rest of the top six here. Fun times ahead.
CHAMPION: Let’s get goofy. Your regular season champion this year is a tie between UNC Wilmington and Elon, which would be their first championship ever at the D1 level.
TOURNAMENT: Predictably, running this league through Random.ORG gave us a goofy one: Drexel steals the bid and gets a 14 or 15 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The way William and Mary plays basketball is going to induce some shockers this year, even if I don’t love their level of offensive shot volume.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Charleston at Northeastern, February 20. This is the start of a 48-hour stretch where Charleston has to play at Northeastern and Drexel. Go 2-0 and you win the league; go 0-2 and you’re finishing no better than third, in all likelihood.
Conference USA
Favorites (50% or above): Liberty
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Western Kentucky, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee
Wildcards (5% or above): none
One-bid league, but fun. This is the best the CUSA has been since Memphis and UAB were in it, which makes the fact it currently out-rates the AAC at KenPom that much funnier. Liberty has easily been the best team in the league thus far; Louisiana Tech is a moderate disappointment. Everyone else is more or less what I’d thought they’d be headed into preseason. I still think this ends up very competitive by season’s end.
CHAMPION: Liberty wins by two games. Maybe 15-3 to 13-5 over Louisiana Tech? 16-2?
TOURNAMENT: Do you like goofy outcomes? You’ll love this: our randomizer has Middle Tennessee coming out of this conference as a 13 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: This Jacksonville State team has a top-100 offense, has largely smoked opponents on the boards, doesn’t foul much, and has held opponents under 47% from two.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Liberty at UTEP, February 15. Liberty’s likeliest loss of the season as it stands.
Horizon League
Favorites (25% or above): Milwaukee
Contenders (25-50%): Purdue Fort Wayne, Youngstown State
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Cleveland State, Northern Kentucky, Oakland, Wright State
Rarely do you see a super-defined conference like this, but here it is. There’s your top tier (the top three), your second tier (the next four plus fringe candidate Robert Morris), and your third tier (IU Indy, UDM, Green Bay). As such, pretty easy to figure out, until it isn’t.
CHAMPION: Milwaukee gets it done this year by a game.
TOURNAMENT: Randomizer says Purdue Fort Wayne is a future 14 or 15 seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean, Robert Morris isn’t bad. Plausible fourth-place finisher?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Milwaukee at Youngstown State, February 21. All roughly the same but this is on a Friday and therefore should be on TV.
Ivy League
Favorites (50% or above): Yale
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Princeton, Cornell, Columbia, Brown
Wildcards (5% or above): none
This will be a lot of fun, as is the conference standard. Yale has come out of the gate looking like the best team here by a mile, but Princeton has the pedigree, Cornell has ballers, and Brown and Columbia have been pretty good in their own right. Even Penn hung with Penn State for 30 minutes. It’s a good league. As a reminder, the Ivy always has the wonky Friday/Saturday schedules where teams play back-to-back road/home games. Plus the weird four-team conference tournament? I liked it better when they just sent the regular season champ without any of this excess stuff.
CHAMPION: In a mild upset, Yale and Princeton share the regular season title, with Columbia and Cornell nabbing the other two spots.
TOURNAMENT: The randomizer says capital-Y Yes to chaos: Columbia gets their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1968.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one obvious.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Yale at Princeton, January 31. What else would I pick? Seems extremely enjoyable.
MAAC
Favorites (50% or above): Merrimack
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Marist, Quinnipiac, Sacred Heart, Saint Peter’s
Wildcards (5% or above): Mount St. Mary’s, Siena
This is normally Iona’s league to lose, but it appears they’re gonna lose it because they’ve struggled more than I anticipated through 1.5 years of Tobin Anderson. Instead, newcomer Merrimack has done the radical act of coaching their team to its fullest potential, which seems to be bizarrely hard for every other MAAC team at this state of its existence. No clue why. (Fine, Saint Peter’s is well-coached.)
CHAMPION: This feels very, very wide-open to me. In a tournament setting I’d take Merrimack but over the course of a full season I’ll guess Quinnipiac comes out on top.
TOURNAMENT: All that and the randomizer still takes Merrimack to win this league. God, I hope so.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Any interest in a lightly-used Iona? They’ve been outshot by 8.1% from three so far. That likely won’t hold. I don’t actually think they’re any good but they’re nowhere as bad as they’ve looked.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Merrimack at Marist, March 6. Might be for the conference title!
MAC
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Akron, Kent State, Ohio
Darkhorses (10% or above): Miami OH
Wildcards (5% or above): Toledo, Central Michigan
Odd and unusual to see our old pals Toledo in the wildcards section, but that’s about how they’ve played so far. The top three here are the usual suspects. Any of Akron, Kent, or Ohio U could end up in the Big Dance and no one would blink an eye. Alternately, the MAC could produce its usual bizarre champion (how about Miami?) via the conference tournament.
CHAMPION: I think Kent State is the best team here by more than these metrics indicate. I’ll take them to win the league by two games.
TOURNAMENT: …oh my God the randomizer picked Toledo. It doesn’t know. But they would win it this year of all years.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Now, I don’t think they’re very good, but Western Michigan has some hallmarks of a team that can be a difficult draw: very high shot volume offensively, great on the boards, and has actually handled higher-end competition reasonably well.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Kent State at Akron, March 1. To quote John Rivers, it ain’t sweet in the MAC. This will be a war.
MEAC
Favorites (50% or above): Norfolk State
Contenders (25-50%): South Carolina State
Darkhorses (10% or above): Howard
Wildcards (5% or above): North Carolina Central
In the production of this article, I got to see Norfolk State play Tennessee here in Knoxville. I continue to be impressed by how much Robert Jones gets out of his team basically every year; if they can make the Tournament the style of defense they play could induce either a 96-50 loss or a 66-63 shocker over a 2 seed. They have to make it through a challenging MEAC first, with several intriguing teams poised to pounce if Norfolk slips up.
CHAMPION: No upsets here, as Norfolk loses two or fewer conference games.
TOURNAMENT: Unfortunately, because we never get what we want, Random.ORG gives us 16 seed South Carolina State winning the conference tournament. This would still be cool, obviously.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one in particular. I do advise never counting out NC Central.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Norfolk State at South Carolina State, March 1. Early March is loaded, huh?
Missouri Valley
Favorites (50% or above): Drake
Contenders (25-50%): Bradley
Darkhorses (10% or above): Northern Iowa
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Drake actually has a mild at-large case at this point - +2.0 WAB, 3-0 against Q1 + Q2 - but until we see a team like them actually get a 10 seed without the aid of the conference tournament, this is probably going to be a one-bid league. The main threat is Bradley, who has awful shot volume metrics but is shooting the lights out. Everything in this league builds towards Arch Madness, the very best conference tournament and one of the few that should exist.
CHAMPION: I’m riding with Drake until I see proof of two things: that this isn’t just Northwest Missouri State transported up a level, and that anyone in this league is capable of beating what looks like a top-40 team in the nation. They look awesome.
TOURNAMENT: The randomizer gives us Bradley, who would likely be a 12 seed. In such a case Drake would be a perfect First Four team, but, well, I’ll believe it when I see it. I was burned by Indiana State last spring and it hurt.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No one stands out here, and the projected standings are more or less in line with the shot volume ones I do. Belmont comes closest.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Drake at Bradley, January 8. This is cinema. This is Real Ball.
NEC
Favorites (50% or above): Central Connecticut
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Stonehill, Wagner, Fairleigh Dickinson
Wildcards (5% or above): Le Moyne, LIU, Saint Francis
Central Connecticut is the only team in this league inside the KenPom top 300. I am good! I’m good. I’ll pass. Though a hearty hat tip to CCSU, who’s made some high-majors sweat this year. That’s a well-coached team. Also, this is not actually the worst conference by KenPom right now; that would be the SWAC, though they’re easily the two worst this year.
CHAMPION: CCSU is going to run away with this by three or four games.
TOURNAMENT: CCSU is your tourney winner.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The second-best team in this league might be LIU, which should probably say something about where this league is at these days.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Central Connecticut at Stonehill, February 1. This is currently CCSU’s best shot to lose a conference game, so here you go.
Ohio Valley
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Little Rock, Southeast Missouri State
Darkhorses (10% or above): Tennessee Martin, SIU Edwardsville, Morehead State
Wildcards (5% or above): Tennessee Tech, Eastern Illinois
Bummer of a conference post-realignment, but given a variety of coaching moves/roster turnover/various news items this conference has seven different teams with at least a 1-in-20 shot of taking home the regular season crown. Little Rock and SEMO are the two best but not by a huge distance; everyone from SIU Edwardsville and UT-Martin (both seeking their first bids in school history) to Morehead, Tennessee Tech, and perma-underdogs Eastern/Western Illinois at least have some sort of a chance.
CHAMPION: Give me a minor upset here: UT-Martin gets it done.
TOURNAMENT: Everyone is so similar here that nothing would be that stunning, but our randomizer has selected Southeast Missouri State to get their third bid in school history.
SUPER DARKHORSE: SIU Edwardsville is 0-2, so they’re already behind the 8-ball, but with normalized 3PT%, they grade out as the best team in the conference. It might be meaningless but this is a Buy Low candidate lurking.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Little Rock at Southeast Missouri State, January 14. I guess. The winner of this conference is very likely to be a 16 seed.
Patriot League
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): American
Darkhorses (10% or above): Lehigh, Boston University, Holy Cross, Colgate, Army
Wildcards (5% or above): Bucknell, Lafayette, Loyola MD, Navy
This is going to be as chaotic as it looks, in part because heavy preseason fave Colgate has looked disastrous thus far while afterthought American might just have the juice. Of course, Colgate has had bad non-cons before then turned it on in conference play, but this time feels different. If so, pretty much everyone’s got at least some miniscule shot at taking home the crown.
CHAMPION: I think I’m gonna go with Boston U to get it done. Best shot volume metrics by far, genuinely good defense.
TOURNAMENT: The Random.ORG randomizer selected Colgate. Even they know.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Army has held up fairly well offensively and has made 10+ threes in seven of 12 games.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Lehigh at Colgate, January 8. Well, let’s find out how real Colgate’s bad start is.
SoCon
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Samford, Furman
Darkhorses (10% or above): East Tennessee State, Wofford, UNC Greensboro
Wildcards (5% or above): Chattanooga
This is either a two-team race or a six-team race. I lean more the former, but I also understand that you can’t tell the former without the latter. Samford and Furman are ahead here, but not super ahead in the sense that they’ll both go 17-1 while splitting their regular season games. They’ll slip up somewhere. Is it enough to allow any of ETSU, UNCG, Wofford, or Chattanooga to steal the regular season title?
CHAMPION: In a conference that always brings chaos, I have a chaotic prediction: Samford, Furman, and ETSU have a three-way split for the title.
TOURNAMENT: Randomizer says Samford, which I imagine most everyone would be happy with.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Keep an eye on Chattanooga, who has two terrific scorers and can shoot themselves into (or out of) any game.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Samford at Furman, January 29. The first in the firing line and a game that’s going to have huge impacts on who eventually gets the 1 seed.
Southland
Favorites (50% or above): McNeese State
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Lamar, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
No team has as outsized a chance to get at least a share of their conference title. Also, no team has a better chance to win their conference tournament. Such is the fun of being the most talented and best coached team in a league without much in the way of the former and an overwhelmed group of the latter. What this means is that no team in America has a better chance to go undefeated in conference play, so that’s worth watching, but more or less everything else here isn’t that interesting.
CHAMPION: McNeese is going to win the league. Obviously.
TOURNAMENT: McNeese wins the conference tournament, beating TAMU-CC by nine points in the final.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: McNeese at TAMU-CC, January 27. This is McNeese’s best shot at a conference loss.
SWAC
Favorites (50% or above): none
Contenders (25-50%): Bethune-Cookman, Southern, Alabama State
Darkhorses (10% or above): Texas Southern
Wildcards (5% or above): Jackson State, Prairie View A&M, Grambling State
Sadly, this or the NEC is the least-consequential conference in America for the 2024-25 season. It is what it is. No team from this conference is inside the national top 250.
CHAMPION: I favor Southern by a hair over Bethune-Cookman. Someone’s gotta win these games.
TOURNAMENT: Bethune-Cookman gets their first Tournament bid in school history! Why not. I’d love that.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Basically everyone but Alabama A&M or MVSU.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Bethune-Cookman at Southern, January 13. This is the first battle between the top three, therefore it’s going to have an outsized impact.
Summit League
Favorites (50% or above): North Dakota State
Contenders (25-50%): South Dakota State, St. Thomas
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): none
As usual, the two Dakota States will play a huge role in who ends up winning this league. Obviously I’d favor one of them to eventually be the Summit’s March representative. But how about new interloper St. Thomas? These guys were a D3 team half a decade ago; now they’re potentially two months from winning a pretty stout conference. Unfortunately, thanks to the NCAA’s archaic rules on moving divisions, they still aren’t eligible for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
CHAMPION: Give me South Dakota State by a game over both NDSU and St. Thomas.
TOURNAMENT: South Dakota State also goes on to win the conference tournament. Probably a 13 seed? 12?
SUPER DARKHORSE: Keep an eye on North Dakota. They likely aren’t actually good, but they have talent and are very good on the boards.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: St. Thomas at North Dakota State, January 2. The first shot fired in the Summit race.
Sun Belt
Favorites (50% or above): Arkansas State
Contenders (25-50%): Troy
Darkhorses (10% or above): Texas State, James Madison
Wildcards (5% or above): South Alabama, Appalachian State
This is the rare conference that’s mostly gone according to plan. Arkansas State was the preseason favorite, but Troy returned a lot and made sense as a co-favorite. Both Texas State and James Madison were expected to be good teams. South Alabama is maybe a hair better than expected and App State a hair worse, but pretty much everything you would’ve thought on November 1 is what it looks like on January 1.
CHAMPION: I think Arkansas State and Troy split it.
TOURNAMENT: Bryan Hodgson gets Arkansas State to the Tournament for the first time since 1999 and probably immediately gets hired away, as is the Arkansas State historical sports standard.
SUPER DARKHORSE: In those shot volume ratings I reference frequently, South Alabama is third in the league behind Arkansas State and Troy. They’re dangerous.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Arkansas State at Troy, January 11. God, what a great game this will be.
WAC
Favorites (50% or above): Grand Canyon
Contenders (25-50%): none
Darkhorses (10% or above): Seattle, Utah Valley, UT Arlington, Cal Baptist
Wildcards (5% or above): none
Grand Canyon, as they should be, is the overwhelming favorite to win this league. I am being advised by my legal team to, uh, “avoid any comments you would regret in a court of public record.” So: how about that second-tier? Seattle has the win over Washington, but all of UVU, UTA, and CalBap are reasonably tough teams that could upset the apple cart.
CHAMPION: Boy, I wonder if it might be the team with triple the budget of anyone else in the WAC! Congrats to GCU.
TOURNAMENT: Upset! Seattle U makes their first-ever Tournament.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None. The top five are pretty clearly the five best.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Grand Canyon at Seattle, March 1. GCU’s best shot to lose a conference game. What? Problem?
BONUS: The Bracket, 1-68
If all goes according to this article, here’s what your 68-team bracket looks like in 2.5 months. Is this useful at all? No, but have fun with it. I took Torvik’s average seeds for each team and built the bracket out from there, making some minor edits as needed for these outcomes. Enjoy. Asterisks = conference champs. If someone wants to make this pretty in Excel you’re more than welcome to do so.
1s: Auburn*, Duke*, Tennessee, Iowa State*
2s: Alabama, Florida, Houston, Marquette*
3s: Illinois*, Michigan, UConn, UCLA
4s: Oregon, Kentucky, Kansas, Gonzaga*
5s: Maryland, Arizona, Texas A&M, Baylor
6s: Mississippi State, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
7s: Texas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Texas Tech
8s: Utah State*, West Virginia, St. John’s, Georgia
9s: Nebraska, Arkansas, North Carolina, Dayton
10s: Memphis, Penn State, San Diego State, SMU
11s: Vanderbilt/Saint Mary’s, Louisville/San Francisco, St. Bonaventure*, Liberty*
12s: Bradley*, UC San Diego*, North Texas*, Arkansas State*
13s: McNeese State*, Samford*, Lipscomb*, Middle Tennessee*
14s: South Dakota State*, High Point*, Columbia*, Purdue Fort Wayne*
15s: Central Connecticut*, Drexel*, Seattle*, Merrimack*
16s: Montana State*, South Carolina State*, Bryant/Bethune-Cookman, Colgate/SEMO