NCAA Weekly, Vol. 13.1: What makes a champion?

more songs about Bracket Science

click »here« for a two-week free trial!

Many moons ago, there was this site I was an obsessive fan of called Bracket Science. This guy named Pete Tiernan ran it; it was all about attempting to figure out how to build the perfect bracket, year over year. Obviously, that’s an impossible assignment, but the love with which Tiernan updated the signs of a champion, Final Four team, early dismissal, etc. was something I couldn’t get enough of. Squint at it and you’ll see a lot of what we talk about here on a weekly basis.

Tiernan stopped updating the site nine years ago, which is about 900 in Internet years, so no one remembers this. However, the thing that’s stuck with me all nine years is the Champ Check. Every week, Tiernan’s site would showcase the top 20 teams in that week’s AP Poll and measure them against a list of qualifications:

There were also some KenPom numbers that got adjusted over time, but those were the basics. Even today, those above numbers would’ve held for all but three of the last 20 champions.

However, I’m more interested in exploring that advanced site of it and updating these numbers for 2023. Are there any efficiency-based numbers that have been indicative of champions over the years? What about shooting, rebounding, etc. stats? Can we narrow down our list of most likely champions based on that?

I have great news: for the most part, over the last 20+ years, you can. Over the weekend I did some research into Four Factors (eFG%, TO%, OREB%, FT Rate) over the years and how well they reflect upon champions of the past. Here’s our shortlist of What Makes a Champion; all stats are entering the Tournament dating back to 1997:

• Top-six team overall in KenPom (21 of last 25 champions; 24 of 25 at least top 20)

• Top-20 offense in KenPom (23 of 25)

• Top-40 defense in KenPom (24 of 25; 2020-21 Baylor the exception)

• Top-100 offensive eFG% (23 of 25)

• Top-150 offensive TO% (25 of 25!)

• Top-150 offensive rebounding percentage (23 of 25)

• Top-100 defensive eFG% (23 of 25)

• Top-200 defensive free throw rate (25 of 25!)

• Top-30 in any offensive Four Factor (24 of 25; 2013-14 UConn the exception)

• Not sub-300 in any Four Factor on either side of the ball (23 of 25)

Collectively, from 1997 to present, this is how past champions have measured up.

• 17 of 25 (68%) hit all ten targets

• 21 of 25 (84%) hit nine of ten targets or more

• 4 of 25 (16%) hit eight or fewer (only one, 2013-14 UConn, fewer than seven)

In a future article, we’ll see how these measure up for Final Four teams, but for now, this is all about the champions. And, predictably, in one of the most parity-filled years on record, not a single team in college basketball hits all ten targets. Worse, just two teams hit nine of the ten. Below is an exploration of the field, an analysis of the frontrunners, and who could step in behind them.

A quick note: if a team was within 10 spots of making qualification of those Four Factor categories, I gave it to them. That may sound overly charitable, but I’m giving some wiggle room in case they jump up into said group within the next week.

The Nine Club

Houston (#230 defensive FT Rate)
Purdue (#333 defensive TO%)

Unsurprisingly, the two teams that have spent the most time at the top of the polls are the top two teams here. Houston and Purdue are both consensus top-4 teams that have made at least one Elite Eight in the last five years and have spent a lot of time operating at the top of college hoops over the last decade. In terms of flaws, these two have the most manageable ones on the board. Such is the luxury of being the consensus best team in the metrics (Houston) or having the National Player of the Year (Purdue).

Of course, both of these could be fatal flaws in March. Houston does foul more than the average team, which is a potentially serious problem given that they don’t have a terribly deep rotation. (Also, their shot selection can be brutal on certain nights.) Purdue, perhaps by design, basically refuses to be aggressive on defense, which they can get away with in the regular season but could be a real issue come the Tournament. Teams as bad at Purdue at forcing turnovers have won it before - 2004 UConn, 2011 UConn, even 2012 Kentucky - but it’s rare, and the last team to win the national championship with a negative turnover margin was 2007 Florida.

Crazy Eights

UCLA (#24 offense, #125 offensive eFG%)
Kansas (#216 defensive FT Rate, no Off. Four Factor higher than #79)
Saint Mary’s (#8 overall, #34 offense)
Arizona (#10 overall, #192 offensive TO%)

These are teams that have more flaws than that top group but, at minimum, are really close to being in the Nine Club. UCLA is just four spots off of having a top-20 offense and just 25 from a top-100 eFG%; fix either and they’re on track with 21 of the previous 25 champions. Kansas won last year, which is generally an automatic disqualifier for future success (the previous year’s champion hasn’t even made the Elite Eight since 2007), but if they foul a little less they might jump into that top group. (Technically, Kansas is #7 in KenPom, but because they were barely half-a-point out of sixth, it was hard to truly disqualify them.) Saint Mary’s is two spots from being a top-six team and is a tremendous, tremendous overall unit. Arizona now has a top-40 defense and is trending upwards.

The Wild Card Sevens

Alabama (#227 offensive TO%, #229 defensive FT Rate, #321 defensive TO%)
Tennessee (#70 offense, #248 offensive eFG%, #290 defensive FT Rate)
Connecticut (#213 offensive TO%, #334 defensive FT Rate which also counts for sub-300 stat)
Texas (#9 overall, #160 OREB%, #262 defensive FT Rate)
Gonzaga (#13 overall, #87 defense, #261 (!) defensive eFG%)
Virginia (#23 overall, #49 offense, #275 OREB%)
Xavier (#24 overall, #83 defense, #263 defensive TO%)
Indiana (#26 overall, #25 offense, #44 defense)

Here’s a collection of eight teams - some favorites, some darkhorses - with serious flaws that could potentially overcome them. Let’s break them down one-by-one.

• Alabama, obviously, is a great basketball team. They’re the consensus second-best team nationally. It would be a genuine breaking of numerous trends if Alabama won it all. Alabama sits at a -3.2 turnover margin per 100 possessions, which would be far and away the worst on record for a champion. Plus, no champion on record has ranked outside of the top 150 in offensive TO%. Since 2010, there have been eight 1 seeds with a negative turnover margin. None made the Final Four, and only two made the Elite Eight.

• Tennessee offers a horror show of an offense many nights, but does offer the very best defense in college basketball. If they can stop fouling so much - easier said than done - their ceiling could elevate. They feel more like an Elite Eight threat than a title threat.

• UConn has faded mightily from their early-season position; they simply foul way, way too much. But they offer a lot of value as an underseeded team, potentially.

• Texas is extremely close to being a 9/10 team if they jump into the top six and get a little better at offensive rebounding. They’re probably the team I feel most favorable toward among this group, which is shocking.

• Gonzaga cannot play defense; if they were to win it all it would be the biggest about-face in recent memory for college hoops.

• Virginia likely isn’t good enough offensively to get it done, but they’re a pretty real second-weekend threat.

• Xavier offers a tremendous offense and a terrible defense. At 24th overall, it may simply be too much to ask.

• Indiana is extremely intriguing. They’re not going to end up in the top six, but with some improvement, they’d meet the top-20 offense/top-40 defense metrics. They meet every Four Factors requirement. I’m keeping an eye on these guys as a serious darkhorse.

The Fringe Four Sixes (?)

Baylor (#14 overall, #93 defense, #214 defensive eFG%, #215 defensive FT Rate)
Creighton (#12 overall, #27 offense, #277 OREB%, #346 defensive TO%)
Maryland (#17 overall, #44 offense, #200 offensive eFG%, no Four Factor in top 30)
TCU (#22 overall, #60 offense, #181 offensive eFG%, no Four Factor in top 30)

Four teams that are good, not great, but I put them here because the lowest-matching champion on record, 2014 UConn, met six out of ten requirements.