Subscriber Ask Me Anything, November 2023

Normally for subscribers, but also for freeloaders this time out

Happy Friday! This is normally a post I’d restrict to just paid subscribers of the newsletter, but seeing as this is the first month of the season and all, feels like a good time to use a free one.

Once a month throughout the season, I post these little AMAs where you can come in and talk shop about whatever you’d like. Last year, we would talk in the comments section here about virtually everything under the sun in the college basketball world. Obviously, given that the main team I cover is Tennessee, there are a good bit of Tennessee-related questions, but I honestly prefer when the question is not about the team in orange. It gives me a chance to do more research than I normally would when responding.

I also thought I’d add a few early observations from the season to perhaps get the questions started. Here’s some early thoughts on the season to date.

• This is the best the actual quality of play has been in a while. Efficiency through 11 days is up from a 2020 nadir of 0.982 PPP and is the third-highest on record in the last 28 years. This isn’t from an increase in shooting, it has largely come about because of the new block/charge rule that has helped eliminate a ton of bad charge calls from the game. There are a lot of plausible after-effects from this, but one I’m pondering: how will coaches and referees adjust as the season goes on?

• The best team in the sport might be Houston again. This is not what Tennessee fans want to hear! But I think it might be the case. I’m typing this as I watch Houston totally toy with a not-bad Towson team by 20 at halftime. I want to see them play a real team, but through 3.5 games of basketball, they’re holding a +136 scoring margin. Is this more of the same from last year, or is this also more of the same from last year where Houston’s built-in advantages crater a bit against better competition?

• The second-best team might be Tennessee. Okay, I don’t actually believe this one just yet, but I think they look like one of the five best in the sport, and that really does count for something. Is Tennessee finally ready to have a top-20 offense for just the third time since 2008-09?

• The best team on the women’s side is South Carolina. This is a pretty easy call, given that they’ve topped 100 twice against ranked opponents and have looked as dominant as ever. This team scares me because it actually looks like they’ve got some semblance of an outside shooting game, which they did not last year, a year in which they entered the Final Four undefeated. Everything after that in WBB…I’m unsure. It seems pretty wide-open! Who can step up? Iowa? Stanford? NC State? Virginia Tech? Utah?

• The only nationally relevant team I think I am ‘out’ on is Stanford. This is a real stretch because Stanford’s only real goal this year was to make the NCAA Tournament, which seemed pretty realistic. But it’s three games in, they got smacked at home by Santa Clara, and have looked utterly awful on defense. Who can Stanford hire that makes them competitive in the ACC? Also, did you remember they’re going to the ACC?

• The Big Ten really may be down. People want the Big Ten to suck every year, and I refuse to admit that Purdue sucks. That’s a top-three team. But I really am not sure who the second-best team is or if said team is one of the 15-20 best in the nation. Is it Michigan? Michigan State? Illinois? Iowa? Nebraska?!? I really don’t know, and that feels like a concern.

• Despite the lowest minutes continuity in history - 38.5% of year-over-year minutes are the same, on average - the quality of play is way up. This still has to sustain itself for many months to come, but think about this. We are on pace for the highest PPG in six years and the third-highest since 1996. Turnovers are lower than ever. Fouls are not meaningfully up. Shooting gets better month-over-month. There doesn’t appear to be one dominant team, but rather a pack of nine or ten teams that all appear to be Final Four level. Is this a sign of the future for college basketball, or is it a momentary fluke that’s stifling portal panic?

All those, and any topic you choose, can be discussed below. I’ll also open up my replies on Twitter (statsbywill) for submissions there. Get to asking, and as time permits throughout the day I’ll reply. Thanks for reading.