Week 10 Weekend Watchlist
Here's hoping these games are not derailed by winter storms
This is a continuation of the earlier Week 10 post, which covered the weekdays.
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey. I haven’t posted the grading scale in a while:
FIVE STARS means you need to clear out your schedule to watch that game, barring some sort of deal where your personal team is playing at that time.
FOUR STARS means I recommend at least catching most of the game if you can.
THREE STARS means these are good or fine games, but not top-flight ones that you absolutely need to watch. If required, you can watch the Matthew Loves Ball highlights the next day.
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK is non-negotiable. If you have the remote and aren’t watching it, the problem lies with you. (Though if you are playing or coaching in a game at that time, then I get it.)
Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 13
12-2 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#36 St. John’s at #13 Creighton (-8), 1 PM ET, FOX. This is a surprisingly impactful game for the Big East race. St. John’s is quietly tied for first in the standings at 4-1; Creighton lingers behind at 3-2. By no means is anything about the race over, obviously, but this is a good opportunity for Creighton to take care of business and get back in the shuffle. FWIW, ShotQuality has this as Creighton -12.
NCAAW: #11 Baylor (-3.5) at #28 Iowa State, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Baylor finally took their first loss of the season on Wednesday to Kansas; they kinda got blown off the court. Their reward for getting up off the mat is a road trip to one of two (Kansas State) remaining 4-0 Big 12 teams. I think it’ll sort itself out, but if you go down two games in the standings this early it’s tough to come back. A problem for Iowa State here is that their defense is kind of terrible, but when you’re shooting 38% from three and controlling the pace of the game as well as they do, you can get away with it.
THREE STARS
#6 Tennessee (-7) at #72 Georgia, 12 PM ET, ESPN2. People are very into the Georgia thing right now, and I get it, because you can convince yourself that Tennessee stinks since the last game they played was a loss. That is how media coverage of college basketball works, after all. You might even hate our boys at ShotQuality! And yet: they scored the Georgia win over Arkansas as a 6-point loss. (Arkansas shot 3-21 on threes.) Meanwhile, Tennessee’s loss was scored as a 3-point win. (Tennessee shot 1-9 on open threes, their worst outing of the season.) I’m just saying!
#68 Seton Hall at #52 Butler (-4), 12 PM ET, FS1. This is the #7 offensive rebounding team in Seton Hall against a Butler team that’s losing the OREB battle by about two per 100 possessions. Then again, Seton Hall has some of the least-effective perimeter shooting in America, so the variance of this game could be pretty low.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#20 Oklahoma at #19 Kansas (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This may be more commonly known as AP #9 at AP #3, which could go a long way in telling you how useful the AP Poll is to anybody in 2024. (Hoop-Explorer’s half resume/half efficiency formula has this as #18 Oklahoma at #10 Kansas, which sounds fair.) These are two teams who took tough road losses on Wednesday, which is not uncommon for the Big 12 but is not super fun when you’re a top ten team.
Anyway, this is a great matchup. This is strength versus strength (#10 2PT% for OU vs. #22 2PT% D for KU; #28 2PT% for KU vs. #41 2PT% D for OU), and if that washes it out, it comes down to a mix of perimeter shooting and shot volume. This feels like a very equal battle on the latter, which means it’s likely Kansas’s three-point efficiency (#26) versus Oklahoma’s three-point volume. What wins out? What will it say about both teams going forward? Likely not that much, but it should be very entertaining.
NCAAW: #5 Texas (-6.5) at #18 Kansas State, 2 PM ET, ESPNU. This is 16-1 versus 16-1 with the Big 12 lead on the line, which means it should be a pretty great game with a lot of heat on both sides. Texas gets their way in many a game by way of sheer force, as they rank #1 by some distance in OREB% in NCAAW. (They rebound 47% of their missed shots, which is bonkers to me.) Kansas State gets their work done on defense, where they’ve posted the second-best defensive efficiency of any team to take the court this year. This is #12 in eFG% versus #2 in defensive eFG%, along with a KSU offense that ranks 5th in 2PT%. Great, great game.
FOUR STARS
#21 San Diego State (-1) at #44 New Mexico, 2 PM ET, CBS. I pondered giving this five stars, because we so rarely get a game with two very watchable teams from a non-annoying conference on CBS, but I can’t do it from an objective standpoint. It’ll have to settle for second billing. Both teams have stars all over the roster, but I cannot wait to see how New Mexico figures to slow down the amazing Jaedon LeDee, he of 22.9 PPG and an astounding 8.3 fouls drawn per game.
#16 Kentucky (-1) at #34 Texas A&M, 2 PM ET, ESPN. I’m unaware of any game this weekend that will feature a larger gap between one team’s 3PT% and the other’s. Kentucky is currently shooting 39.9% from three; Texas A&M is at 26%. Considering I just wrote a whole post about shooting regression/progression and highlighted these two teams, I imagine you know where I stand. A note here that Buzz Williams is 44-30 ATS against SEC opponents and 13-6 ATS at home over the last two seasons.
#41 Xavier at #43 Providence (-3), 2 PM ET, FS1. At 7-8, with a 17% chance to go dancing per Torvik, Xavier’s already facing an uphill battle. But Providence has a lot at stake here, too. After the injury to Bryce Hopkins, they’ve dropped three in a row, though I’d argue they’ve looked a little better and more confident each time out. This begins a stretch of four games where they’re favored, and it would do them a world of good to go 4-0. At worst, 3-1.
#123 Belmont at #56 Indiana State (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. There’s not a ton at stake here because both teams are 4-1 and ISU has the far better projection for the remainder of the season, but this is a game with a projected total of 166 points and both coaches are going to be hot #SearchSZN topics. You can and will do way worse.
D3: #4 Randolph-Macon (-1) at #2 Guilford, 3 PM ET, streaming. Seek this one out if you find yourself a little disinterested with the D-1 offerings at 3 PM. Matt Snyder’s D3 ratings have this as possibly the single best game in Division 3’s regular season that you can get. Randolph-Macon’s traditionally made themselves known with a nasty defensive structure that tries to eliminate anything within five feet of the rim, but Guilford doesn’t chase buckets down low, anyway. Instead they choose to take 24 threes a game. This is also a slow, slow matchup, with a projected pace of just 62 possessions.
NAIA: #1 Grace (IN) (-5.5) at #8 Bethel (IN), 3 PM ET, streaming. This is in a similar vein as above but with more points. Grace is the best team by a good margin in NAIA this year and is chasing their first championship since 1992, while Bethel (not the Tennessee Bethel) is chasing their fourth in program history. Very very good.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #40 Princeton (-4) at #69 Harvard, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Not a ton on this one, other than it’s pretty obviously for the top spot in the Ivy. Princeton has serious Sweet Sixteen potential with Carla Berube at the helm, a coach who’s now 86-15 in four seasons there and 470-111 in her career. Harvard’s 8-6 record looks bad but considering three of the losses are to top 25 teams, it’s not that alarming.
#160 Longwood at #168 UNC Asheville (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Swing piece in the Big South race here, though I think both High Point and Winthrop are probably better teams.
#60 Virginia at #42 Wake Forest (-5), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Early-season ACC eliminator game here for Virginia. If you move to 2-3, historically speaking, you’d probably have to go 14-1 to contend for the ACC title. Though at this point, they probably just want to make the Tournament. Similar equation for Wake Forest at hand here, though a move to 4-1 ACC would be helpful.
#38 Utah State (-2) at #85 UNLV, 3 PM ET, CBSSN. I still don’t think enough people are aware that Utah State is 15-1 with an entirely new roster and in arguably the best Mountain West we’ve seen in a decade. They can afford a loss here but would obviously rather win. UNLV absolutely cannot, because their next two games are road affairs with Boise and Colorado State, and an 8-9, 1-4 MWC team is almost certainly not making the Tournament.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
D2: #4 Northwest Missouri (-7.5) at #17 Missouri Western, 4:30 PM ET, streaming. The MIAA is possibly the single best conference in Division II, with potentially seven future NCAA Tournament teams among its ranks. These are two of the five teams in the conference that Massey has inside its top 20, which should give some inside into the nightly bloodbath it is.
The game itself should bring the goods, too. This is a Northwest Missouri team that’s finally found its groove offensively and looks as nasty as ever; despite unusually pedestrian 3PT% numbers they’re shooting 59% on twos and get more free throws than all but two teams in Division II. Missouri Western’s style of play is probably more aesthetically exciting: transition-heavy, with a hard focus on getting downhill first and asking questions later. These two teams combine for 71 points in the paint per game, which should make it a blast.
FOUR STARS
D2: #3 Nova Southeastern (-13) at #72 Florida Tech, 4 PM ET, streaming. This one can’t pop off the page like the above can, but in the same breath, it’s probably the more entertaining game for a casual observer. Whereas Northwest Missouri and Missouri Southern are probably in a race to 70, this is more like a race to 90. Nova Southeastern averages 25 fast-break points a game and plays unlike anyone you can find in Division I. It makes Florida Tech, a team who has a terrific offense of its own, look pedestrian in comparison.
#89 Appalachian State at #69 James Madison (-5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these teams losing earlier in the week stole a little thunder, but these are still the two best teams in the Sun Belt with arguably four of the league’s five best players. App State has Donovan Gregory, Tre’Von Spillers, a win over Auburn, and a top-50 offense; James Madison has TJ Bickerstaff, Terrence Edwards, and a win over Michigan State. I mean, are you going to watch Browns/Texans when you could not do such a thing?
Browns at Texans, 4:30 PM ET, NBC. I mean, I do wanna see CJ Stroud against that defense.
THREE STARS
#12 BYU (-6) at #80 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. A very fun way to make someone really, really mad on Twitter: write out something like “now that UCF beat a lesser team on Wednesday in Kansas, can they beat a real top 15 team like BYU?” I like not dying so I won’t do it. Could be good for somebody. Report back.
#58 Kansas State at #24 Texas Tech (-7), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. I think everyone thinks of Grant McCasland as a defense-first guy, which he is. Don’t get me wrong, Tech’s defense is just fine! It’s almost inside KenPom’s top 40. But did you know that Tech has a top 25 offense to go with it? I feel like this is a way better team than everyone assumes. Also, Kansas State is here.
6-8 PM ET
FOUR STARS
#1 Houston (-7) at #29 TCU, 6 PM ET, ESPN. This is the…best? game of a pretty middling 6 PM slate. I will not blame anyone who chooses to watch Browns/Texans in this slate instead. I mean, I will, because I write about college basketball, but whatever.
Anyway! This is very interesting because in the same vein of the offensive 3PT% regression, I wonder if we’re at peak value with Houston’s defense. Look at this:
That is the craziest defensive thing I have ever written about, and I covered Tennessee’s defense last year during their own bonkers hot streak. ShotQuality has Houston as being due for about 7% worth of 3PT regression, which would be of greater interest if they weren’t playing one of the least-effective three-point shooting teams in America. Still, it’s plausible.
#61 Miami at #57 Virginia Tech (-4), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Hey, people who whimpered for months about how mean the metrics were to Miami! Checking in! Sorry, that’s way too aggressive. But when you lose to Louisville, all sort of plain niceness and pleasantries are off the table. You did something Arkansas State and DePaul didn’t do. I don’t think this is an eliminator but Torvik gives both teams a 33% chance to see the NCAA Tournament at this point. A loss here isn’t helping, especially for Miami, who has a worse resume than Tech does.
THREE STARS
#2 Arizona (-10) at #66 Washington State, 6 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Given the week that their rival has had, Washington State would presumably love to cap Washington’s week from hell with a tasty W. The problem is that Washington State has very little in common with the teams who’ve beaten Arizona so far, namely that they don’t shoot nearly as well as the three who pulled off wins.
#91 George Mason at #96 Richmond (-3), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a race for a top-four spot in the Atlantic 10 at season’s end. Richmond fascinates me: they completely punt on offensive rebounds and do not bother with getting fouled, but they’re #1 by some distance in offensive TO% and have been terrific on defense. It’s like A-10 Micah Shrewsberry? Kinda?
8-10 PM ET
THE SECOND SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #6 Indiana at #3 Iowa (-5.5), 8 PM ET, FOX. So as of now, this game is still being played, but it might not be. Indiana still hasn’t left Bloomington as of Friday night because of a winter storm, and to be honest I would be a little surprised if they went through with this. I mean:
So I don’t know. But if they do play this game, it’s the best game of the week. This is the best player in college basketball against possibly the deepest team in the Big Ten. Iowa’s supporting cast gets underrated because of the otherworldly Caitlin Clark, but Kate Martin (12.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 40% 3PT) has been fabulous in her role. Indiana’s pairing of Sara Scalia and Mackenzie Holmes is crazy dangerous. I really, really hope there’s a way to play this game. If there isn’t, it’s understandable, but what a bummer it would be. This is such a good showcase for not just women’s basketball, but the sport in general.
FIVE STARS
Dolphins at Chiefs, 8 PM ET, Peacock. So if they don’t play the above game just pivot to this. Normally I wouldn’t tell you to watch football above hoops, but the number of times in life you’re going to see a game played in -30 degree wind chill is perilously small.
FOUR STARS
#32 Cincinnati at #14 Baylor (-8), 8 PM ET, ESPN. Speaking of peaked value! Baylor is shooting 45% from three, which exactly one other team has done in 20 years. They’re enjoying a +14.4% 3PT% gap right now. Bet against them while you have time.
#8 Alabama (-2) at #25 Mississippi State, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Huge, huge chance for Mississippi State to more or less be a lock for the NCAA Tournament. If they win this very strangely scheduled game they’re going to have multiple top 10 wins in one week, which is not a thing pretty much anyone does. I also think Alabama’s value, analytically, might have peaked. The schedule is crazy hard, obviously, but they’ve enjoyed a +8.8% 3PT% gap from offense to defense. The largest gap anyone’s enjoyed in the last three full seasons is +8.5%.
THREE STARS
#77 Drake at #98 Southern Illinois (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. What can I say? It’s two of the three best teams in the Missouri Valley, which always brings the entertainment. Also, speaking of gigantic, unsustainable 3PT% gaps, Southern Illinois sits at +12.8%.
LATE
THREE STARS
#70 USC at #37 Colorado (-7), 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Well, it’s basketball.
#161 Long Beach State at #193 UC Santa Barbara (-2), 10 PM ET, ESPNU. This is at least somewhat interesting compared to the above. These two teams were preseason favorites for the Big West and have crashed hard, with neither having underlying metrics that suggest a huge turnaround incoming. Can either get off the mat?
SUNDAY, JANUARY 14
12-2 PM ET
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #42 Miami at #12 Notre Dame (-10.5), 12 PM ET, The CW. The CW again! What a joy. I am completely and totally just here for Hannah Hidalgo, maybe the most watchable player not named Caitlin Clark in the sport. Hidalgo stats update: 24.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.8 APG, and 5.6 steals per game. And she’s a true freshman. Go ahead and fast-forward me to January 27 when they play UConn.
NCAAW: #10 Virginia Tech (-2.5) at #39 Florida State, 1 PM ET, ESPN. The other most watchable player in the league is Elizabeth Kitley and also Georgia Amoore. (Go ahead and fast-forward me to Leap Day on February 29, when Virginia Tech plays Notre Dame.) Kitley kind of blows me away: a center who is putting up a 124 Offensive Rating on 30% Usage while shooting 48% on midrange twos. The counting stats are also rich: 21.6 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.1 BPG, and again, 48% on midrange twos. She’s shooting 50% from each baseline at 78% at the rim.
THREE STARS
Steelers at Bills, 1 PM ET, CBS. This is a half-star for the atrocious Pittsburgh offense and five stars for the Bills averaged out, by the way.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #2 Stanford (-6.5) at #17 Colorado, 2 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. This is the good stuff. I hate that we all have to subscribe (illegally stream) to Pac-12 Network in the year 2024, but it’s the best conference in women’s hoops by some margin this year. They’re going to get no fewer than seven of their 12 teams in the Big Dance. Stanford is arguably the best challenger to South Carolina’s likely throne; Colorado is merely a really good team with reasonable Final Four dreams.
This is all about which star player balls out more, with a pretty clear slant towards the former. Cameron Brink for Stanford is going bonkers, posting 18.5 PPG/11.3 RPG/3.5 BPG on just 10.6 FGA per game. She’s been unstoppable in the paint, and the only team to slow her down at all was Gonzaga, because she was sick. Colorado’s point guard Jaylyn Sherrod has been nearly as unstoppable in the paint despite being almost a full foot shorter. I’m very excited for this one.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #53 California at #17 Utah (-14.5), 2 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Utah’s star is fading a bit thanks to injuries, but I still think Alissa Pili is such a wildly watchable player that you can’t give up on them yet. Still capable of a deep run in March if they can find her some help. California badly needs a big win away from home, as they’re 2-3 against top 50 teams but both wins are at home. (They’re 10-0 against everybody else.)
#95 Liberty at #100 Louisiana Tech (-3), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. These are the two best teams in CUSA, which means this automatically gets recommended. It’s also two very different solutions to the same equation of how to win. Liberty’s offense has been great at producing quality twos, while Tech’s defense is great at taking them away. Neither the Liberty defense nor the Tech offense profile as anything special, though.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #37 Nebraska (-2.5) at #52 Minnesota, 3 PM ET, BTN+.
NCAAW: #51 Arkansas at #23 Alabama (-6.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
NCAAW: #27 Washington (-2.5) at #47 Washington State, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. I hate when I do this but these are all the exact same game: three good-not-great teams who are likely to make the NCAA Tournament but aren’t locks. Three bubble-like substances who need wins over better teams to solidify their resumes. If the three games ahead of it all end up being duds, at least one of these should pop off if not two.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #16 Michigan State at #14 Ohio State (-7.5), 4 PM ET, BTN. Admittedly, this and UCLA/USC are Synergy Games (aka, Monday morning speedruns) for me, because I’m going to watch the football game. But don’t let that sway you from good hoops, because these two offenses are a thrill a minute. This is 89.9 PPG (MSU) at 82.8 PPG (OSU), along with 6th versus 25th in eFG%. MSU’s offense is a thing of beauty.
Packers at Cowboys, 4:30 PM ET, FOX. Sorry, but this really does rock. I’ve enjoyed watching Green Bay mature over the year and think they’re pretty scary, but when rolling, Dallas can look unstoppable. Plus: classic uniform matchup.
NCAAW: #9 UCLA (-4.5) at #21 USC, 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. On one hand, I could simply write Kiki Rice and Lauren Betts versus JuJu Watkins and pretty much any fan of women’s hoops would get it. If you don’t, here’s a different sell: this is a legitimate Final Four hopeful playing at a Sweet Sixteen team. The Final Four hopeful averages 86.2 PPG; the Sweet Sixteen team has a freshman averaging 26.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 2.4 SPG while shooting 42% from three. Is that enough for you?
FOUR STARS
#23 Utah (-3) at #83 Stanford, 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Utah almost completely erased a sickening road loss to Arizona State by sending UCLA to a world that people have not quite discovered yet. Stanford has put together a lineup that can actually really rip it from three, but their size is poor on both ends and their defense is quite bad.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #36 Tennessee (-2.5) at #58 Texas A&M, 5 PM ET, ESPN2/SEC Network. The SEC for women’s basketball really is not the SEC for men’s basketball, with maybe four or five teams that will end up making the field of 64. Tennessee may be one of those and have turned it around a bit in SEC play, beginning 3-0, but it’s a long conference season. A&M is 13-3 and trending in the right direction.
LATE
THE 91-STAR GAME OF THE LIFE
Rams at Lions, 8 PM ET, NBC. I’ve been a Lions fan for many, many years. I have never seen them play a home playoff game. Do I connect with them quite like I did this Michigan run, which I got to enjoy with my father? Not really the exact same, but this is still extremely cool. And holy God almighty they absolutely have to win this game otherwise I may not watch an NFL game for like two years. It would hurt.