Week 11 Weekend Watchlist
get to watchin'
This is the weekend-only version of the weekly Watchlist, which gives you a detailed daily schedule to follow. The essay for the week is here. This weekend’s games are below.
All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. All D-2 and lower rankings are via Massey. Your author forgot to include these at first, my bad. I haven’t posted the grading scale in a while:
FIVE STARS means you need to clear out your schedule to watch that game, barring some sort of deal where your personal team is playing at that time.
FOUR STARS means I recommend at least catching most of the game if you can.
THREE STARS means these are good or fine games, but not top-flight ones that you absolutely need to watch. If required, you can watch the Matthew Loves Ball highlights the next day.
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK is non-negotiable. If you have the remote and aren’t watching it, the problem lies with you. (Though if you are playing or coaching in a game at that time, then I get it.)
Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so. Next week, four of the six (!) posts (thank Tennessee for somehow having a one-game week in January) will be PAID and behind a $30/year paywall. I think it’s worth your time and money, frankly.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 20
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#18 Marquette (-1) at #39 St. John’s, 12 PM ET, FOX. How much one chooses to or to not care about conference standings is probably an eye-of-the-beholder thing but it does feel like this week represents a last stand of sorts for Marquette (3-3). UConn is (6-1) and Seton Hall (6-1) plays Creighton (4-3) at this same time. Considering Marquette was billed as a top-five team in the preseason, being 12-5 is a real disappointment. This is a huge opportunity for both sides: for Marquette to get back in the Big East race, and for St. John’s to keep a two-game skid from turning into three. It’ll have a crazed crowd and desperation on both sides.
NAIA: #4 Marian (IN) at #3 Indiana Wesleyan (-2), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. I gather that very few of you know or care about NAIA basketball, and to be honest I’m not very good at keeping up with any aspect of it aside from who the 3-5 best teams are in a given season. The good news for you is that two of those five best teams play each other on ESPN+ (!) today. Marian’s offense is a thing of beauty every year; they’re shooting 39% on threes, 55% on twos, and are near-impossible to guard in the pick-and-roll. Indiana Wesleyan wants this game to be played in the 80s, with as much transition play as possible and a relentless assault on the rim. Watch this, please.
NCAAW, D2: #1 Grand Valley State (-8.5) at #12 Ferris State, 1 PM ET, streaming. The same as above. I don’t pretend to keep up with the D2 women as well as I probably should, but when the best team by a mile is playing a tough road game at a team with genuine title hopes, I need to clock in. Save for South Carolina, GVSU might be the most singularly dominant team at any level of hoops, men’s or women’s, this season. Their defense is unfathomable, giving up a 36% 2PT% and a 25% 3PT. They don’t foul. They’re elite at rebounding in both directions. They may be the next team-specific breakdown I do.
FOUR STARS
#15 Baylor (-2) at #48 Texas, 12 PM ET, ESPN. Now that Baylor has stopped shooting 47% from three, I think people are finally able to admit the hard truth about them: they’re fine. They aren’t a title contender, and they aren’t a Big 12 title contender, either. They’re one of the 15-20 best teams in America, one capable of getting hot enough to make the Final Four or capable of going cold enough/not getting enough stops to lose in the Round of 64 to a 14 seed. Texas needs wins badly and this would be a huge one.
#16 Creighton (-2) at #54 Seton Hall, 12 PM ET, FS1. Creighton’s performance at UConn was pretty underwhelming but I wouldn’t read a ton into a game where they shot horrifically from three. Hard to repeat that over and over, you know. Seton Hall’s Big East start has been fantastic, and they’ve played their way into the field of 68…for now. I’m not sold at all on their defense but the offense has turned a corner. Will that be enough against a very talented Creighton side?
#20 Oklahoma at #27 Cincinnati (-2), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these coaches have had a rough two years to start their respective jobs, but in Year Three, both are safely inside the field of 68 if the Tournament began today. I would argue that Cincinnati needs more wins, but Oklahoma needs a few, too. This should be pretty spicy.
#22 San Diego State (-1) at #56 Boise State, 1 PM ET, CBS. Whatever TV contract the MWC signed so they can now get weekly games on CBS was brilliant. Keep doing it, fellas. Both of these defenses are due for 3PT% regression (29% for both) but neither offense is much for shooting from deep. Another toiletball game, which is right up my alley.
THREE STARS
#66 Miami at #77 Syracuse (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. I’m itching to firmly eliminate Miami from the 2024 NCAA Tournament. This isn’t a good basketball team. But! They can stave off elimination by simply winning this game. It’s a coin-flip, but it’s not impossible, of course. Meanwhile, are you aware that Syracuse is 12-5 (3-3 ACC) and sits at +0.8 Wins Above Bubble? A win here and I think bracketologists should begin taking NCAA Tournament Syracuse pretty seriously.
2-4 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEKEND
#7 Alabama at #6 Tennessee (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. A full preview of this game is already up, so I won’t add much here, other than if you’re a paid subscriber you’ve already read 3,000+ words about the best game of the weekend. If you’re somehow not one yet, well:
We even have a special deal at $22/year right now through Monday. You should go sign up. I promise it’s worth your dollars, even in this economy.
FIVE STARS
#14 Iowa State at #24 TCU (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPNU. Am I allowed to discuss how TCU’s resume isn’t good yet? Sure, that win over Houston is fabulous. Sure, beating Oklahoma at home was good, too. But this is a team who is 2-4 in just six games against the KenPom top 100. Per Torvik, their defense has played like the 144th-best unit in America in those games. Cincinnati - far from a sexy offense - shot 58% on twos, their best against a top 100 team by a full 5%. Iowa State badly needs wins too; they’re 3-4 against Top 100 teams themselves.
FOUR STARS
#2 Purdue (-7) at #42 Iowa, 2 PM ET, FS1. This just barely missed out on being a five-star game to the point that I feel a little guilty, but your average #2 at #43 game doesn’t make it, so not a huge deal. Purdue is Purdue and you know them, but it feels like Iowa has turned the corner. After a 5-5 start, they’re 6-1 since with a pair of Quad 2 wins and have jumped 15 spots in KenPom. For the first time in forever, too, they have a legitimate plus defender in freshman center Owen Freeman. Of course, this is Zach Edey they’re going up against, so I’ve got doubts, but hey.
NCAAW: #42 Columbia at #39 Princeton (-6.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an electric matchup of the two best teams in the Ivy League, 12-4 at 13-3 with the in-road on the eventual auto-bid on the line. Columbia’s offense is terrific, playing heavily in transition with excellent interior pieces. Princeton is more well-rounded but has been unusually reliant on getting their buckets via offensive rebounds, a thing Columbia has done well to eliminate. Thrilling matchup here between Columbia’s backcourt of Abbey Hsu (21.4 PPG) and Kitty Henderson (12.8 PPG) versus Princeton’s Kaitlyn Chen (15.3 PPG) and Madison St. Rose (15.7 PPG).
NCAAW: #5 Texas (-9.5) at #54 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. At 11-6, Oklahoma State really needs wins. They aren’t close to the field at the moment, per ESPN. Texas also really needs wins, as they’ve fallen from a projected 2 seed to a 4 in the last couple of weeks. FWIW Oklahoma State’s defense is really rough and struggles at the rim, which is not ideal against Texas of all teams.
NCAAW: #18 Michigan State (-4.5) at #49 Minnesota, 3 PM ET, BTN+. Minnesota is barely in the Tournament field at the moment, but Michigan State isn’t too safe, either. Both need wins. The Gophers are more evenly-rounded but Michigan State’s core-first, ask-questions-later philosophy is one of the most exciting things going on at any level of college hoops right now.
THREE STARS
#80 St. Bonaventure at #102 George Mason (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these prior starlets are starting to crater a little, with the Bonnies at 2-2 in the A-10 and Mason 2-3. Mason’s defense has been fantastic for large stretches but their offense is just fine, while the Bonnies offense is great but their defense struggles.
#114 Western Carolina at #139 Furman (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Furman is having a bit of a sophomore slump after their run to the Round of 32 last year, while Western Carolina finally lost a game this week after winning nine in a row. Good get-off-the-mat opportunity for both.
#74 UCF at #1 Houston (-18), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Is UCF a wagon? No, but…I mean…you’re thinking it, right? Who comes into this conference and beats Kansas and Texas in the first two weeks of conference play? Who? Again, I’m unsure, but I do think these guys might be a Tournament-level team. Anyway, the 175th-best offense against Houston’s defense is such a horrific matchup that this might be a 20+ point loss.
#8 North Carolina (-9) at #92 Boston College, 2:15 PM ET, CW. Boston College is technically still in the KenPom top 100, I guess, but they feel so far from Tournament consideration. That being said: is this believable to you? (Tim Robinson voice) HAS THIS EVER HAPPENED TO YOU?
Teams aren’t gonna shoot 26% from three the rest of the way. (Also start betting against SMU.)
#59 Northwestern at #52 Nebraska (-4), 2:15 PM ET, BTN. This is pretty pivotal. Via Torvik’s Tourneycast:
A win here helps you a lot; a loss hurts.
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
None.
FOUR STARS
Texans at Ravens, 4:30 PM ET, ABC. This is closer to five stars than three, but when I look at it I have a real fear that the Texans could get blown out here. People don’t seem to have fully grasped just how dominant Baltimore has been this year. Of course, there’s a long history of the 1 seed falling on its face in the playoffs, so it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world for Houston to pull off an upset. (Baltimore 30, Houston 14.)
D2: #4 West Texas A&M (-7.5) at #42 Eastern New Mexico, 5 PM ET, streaming. This game ROCKS and is our D2/D3 GOTD. These are two elite offenses with completely opposite approaches to the game. WTAMU wants to play a half-court oriented game running through the midrange, with a high level of shot volume and very few turnovers. Eastern New Mexico wants this game to be played in the 90s if possible, because they’re run-and-gun with emphasis on the run. They score 18 fastbreak points per game, 42 paint points per game, and take 48% of all shots at the rim. They’re also shooting 45% from three somehow? Give this a shot if the football bores you.
THREE STARS
#36 Texas A&M (-1) at #84 LSU, 4 PM ET, ESPNU. I’m telling you: get in on Texas A&M before their extreme -7.6% 3PT% gap starts to reverse itself. They aren’t a bad team. There’s also this from Andrew Weatherman, which shows they’ve got the easiest schedule left in the SEC:
#38 Clemson (-1) at #79 Florida State, 4 PM ET, ACC Network. Clemson, listen in and listen well: stop losing. Quit it. You lose this one, you’re squarely back on the bubble where you’ve been for 11 years in a row.
#62 North Texas (-2) at #118 Charlotte, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. These teams are both toiletball to the core, but it’ll be a close game and it’s pretty meaningful for both sides. I’m not sure if people are fully aware but along with SMU, these two are legitimate non-Memphis/FAU title contenders in the AAC. Charlotte interim Aaron Fearne is doing a solid job, and Ross Hodge is continuing to sustain the gains Grant McCasland brought the school in his run.
#70 UC Irvine (-3) at #142 UC Davis, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. 5-0 at 5-1 in the Big West. UC Davis has the best player in the conference in Elijah Pepper; UC Irvine has easily the best individual unit with their defense, a borderline top-30 group in America.
6-8 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#9 BYU (-2) at #34 Texas Tech, 6 PM ET, ESPN2. I think people are getting tired of it but sorry, every single game BYU plays is must-watch television at the moment. It’s the most enjoyable they’ve been in a decade. Texas Tech is also surprisingly fun to watch given their slow-down style; the offense is actually very good, no matter what Houston just got done doing to it.
I cannot wait to see the matchup between Tech’s feisty-but-imperfect defense against BYU’s hyper-spaced offense. Only two teams take more threes than BYU, and only two teams get more assists. On the other side of the ball, BYU isn’t quite as blitzy as Houston is against pick-and-rolls, but they’re pretty aggressive. Can Tech use that to their advantage to create open shots, or will this be Houston part two? Also interested to see how BYU handles what is typically the most hostile environment for visitors in the Big 12.
FOUR STARS
#69 Georgia at #17 Kentucky (-11), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Please let the record state that I am NOT capital-I In on Georgia yet, but I’m starting to get there. Somewhat. They deserve to be in Tournament consideration more than I think they might be at the moment. That being said: middling rim defense up against Kentucky’s litany of drivers and scorers doesn’t encourage me. Then again, Kentucky’s defense is porous and will allow plenty of open shots.
#124 Charleston at #117 UNC Wilmington (-4), 6 PM ET, CBSSN. UNC Wilmington doesn’t take many great shots, but they are stuffed with great shot-makers. Charleston’s defense is…uh…ahhh….yeah. But! I think you can say the same about Wilmington’s defense going up against a Charleston offense that is borderline unmatched in the amount of space it produces offensively. Huge game in the CAA race.
THREE STARS
#161 Hawaii at #116 UC San Diego (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Useful piece in the Big West race. Two very well-coached defenses, including Hawaii’s which ranks #1 in the nation in defensive spacing allowed. They simply refuse to allow good shots.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#5 UConn (-2) at #26 Villanova, 8 PM ET, FS1. UConn now has Donovan Clingan back, which is quite huge for their outlook particularly on defense. That being said I might be stupid enough to actually believe in this Villanova team? They’re a top-30 group with the potential to shoot opponents out of a gym (or shoot themselves out of the gym) with strengths that line up fairly well with UConn’s weaknesses. That won’t matter if they continue to allow a ton of open threes on defense, but what I’m saying is that I would be a little surprised if this just goes to expectation. It’s remarkably open to shooting variance in both directions.
Packers at 49ers, 8:15 PM ET, FOX. Sorry, but this bangs. Green Bay’s offense has been fabulous down the stretch, while the 49ers have a litany of weapons that they can deploy at any given time. I have a hard time envisioning Green Bay actually winning this, but I’ve seen crazier. (San Francisco 28, Green Bay 17.)
FOUR STARS
#71 Ole Miss at #4 Auburn (-14), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. I think Ole Miss’s Linsanity run has blissfully ended. It is now time for Auburn’s to end. I’m kidding, but their 28% 3PT% allowed since mid-November is not sustainable. I think they’re right alongside Tennessee in the SEC race, as is Alabama, but I have some small doubts that they’re a legitimate top-four team. It’s okay if they’re just a top-10 team!
THREE STARS
#108 Southern Illinois at #100 Northern Iowa (-4), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Two tremendous regression themes here: Northern Iowa’s defense (315th in 3PT% allowed) versus Southern Illinois’s defense (5th).
#83 Pittsburgh at #10 Duke (-12), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Duke seems to have figured things out, so this is no longer relevant to me, but I would like to point out that a goofus Duke twitter guy (who, of course, hosts a Duke podcast for F68) gave Kyle Filipowski a grade of ‘B’ for the season. This Kyle Filipowski.
You do not, under any circumstances, need to listen to team-specific podcasts. With a few exceptions, these are the people who run them.
#61 Washington at #93 Stanford (-1), 9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network.
LATE
FIVE STARS
None.
FOUR STARS
#35 Saint Mary’s at #51 San Francisco (-2), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Hey, this is pretty awesome. Saint Mary’s is beginning to figure things out and is 10-1 in their last 11, with three Q1/Q2 wins. San Francisco is 9-1 in their last 10 and has smoked WCC competition over the last week. If you haven’t seen Jonathan Mogbo for USF yet, lock in. This dude’s numbers are bonkers.
THREE STARS
#58 Grand Canyon (-3) at #125 Seattle, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. The WAC isn’t as good as I’d hoped but this is probably #1 at #3 in the conference. This and a Thursday date with Stephen F. Austin represent the only times the rest of the season that Grand Canyon faces a win expectancy shorter than 65%.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 21
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #3 Iowa (-2.5) at #13 Ohio State, 12 PM ET, NBC. How cool is this? We got a bonafide 5-star women’s game on big NBC. Not Peacock, not the dead NBCSN, not shoved off on Big Ten Network. Actual, real, over-the-air NBC. That is tremendous for the sport. Caitlin Clark’s impact is pretty real, whether you like it or not.
I mean, what do you even say? This is the best offense in the nation going on the road to play an Ohio State team with wins over Michigan State, Tennessee, Penn State, and more. It’s two teams that both take 45% of their shots at the rim. Both teams rely on threes to get them over the top. It’s the singular star Clark going up against the three-headed monster of Jacy Sheldon (17.4 PPG), Taylor Thierry (13.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG), and Cotie McMahon (13.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG).
NCAAW: #19 Duke at #12 NC State (-7.5), 12 PM ET, ACC Network. Two excellently-coached defenses here. Duke has struggled a lot to avoid turnovers but is ruthless on the boards, while NC State has been elite at the boards and in rim protection. Neither team has an outright star, but both have terrific starting lineups. Game will likely be decided by two simple things: who generates more shots and who commits fewer fouls.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #23 Creighton (-1.5) at #34 Villanova, 12 PM ET, CBSSN. Creighton is likely at least making the field of 64, but Villanova has work to do. They’re 4-5 against Quadrants 1 and 2, with most of their good wins at home. This would be another home win, but when your average victory is NET #135 you need one like this pretty bad. This is also really big for the Big East race. A Villanova win moves them to 6-1 and just a game behind UConn for the Big East lead, while Creighton would move into a three-way tie for second at 5-2.
#49 Memphis (-3) at #110 Tulane, 1 PM ET, ESPN2. The Torvik projected score here is 90-89. I think that’s all the selling you need to at least keep an eye on it.
NCAAW: #38 Nebraska (-0.5) at #44 Penn State, 1 PM ET, BTN+. Fun game here between two teams that badly need quality wins. Nebraska is 2-5 versus Quad 1 and 11-0 versus all others; Penn State is 0-5 and 11-0. These are two great offenses with opposite ways to get their points. Penn State shoots 42% from deep on high volume; Nebraska slows the game down and generates a lot of easy points by crashing the boards.
THREE STARS
#19 Michigan State (-3) at #68 Maryland, 12 PM ET, CBS. Maryland is in the midst of a dead-cat bounce, so this could be of interest. Michigan State really, really needs to win games. This is one they cannot lose.
#91 Rutgers at #11 Illinois (-13), 1 PM ET, BTN. You could watch Rutgers play sludgeball for two hours, or you could do anything else. This is on here just in case it gets into upset territory.
2-4 PM ET
THE 902138192-STAR GAME OF THE LIFE
Buccaneers at Lions, 3 PM ET, NBC. I got my playoff win. The first one since I was -2 years old. Now, I want more. My boys, my big dumb boys, they’re 60 minutes away from a spot in the NFC Championship Game. Please. One more. Basketball will not exist for me from 3-6 PM ET, I apologize.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #20 USC at #16 Colorado (-5.5), 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. But for those of you who aren’t Bucs or Lions fans, I would probably objectively put that game in the four-star category. You can watch this instead, if you can find the channel anywhere. JuJu Watkins versus The World is great stuff, and Colorado’s fastbreak-heavy offense brings the goods.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #22 Louisville (-0.5) at #29 North Carolina, 2 PM ET, ACC Network. This isn’t one of the better Louisville teams in memory, but hey, they’re 15-2 and 4-0 ACC. They’re a machine. UNC can actually beat them in the standings here with a win, however temporary that might be. Watch Kiki Jefferson (12.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG) when she’s on the court. A wildly impactful player on both ends and arguably the ACC’s second-best defender behind Hannah Hidalgo.
#57 Oregon at #23 Utah (-7), 3 PM ET, ESPN. I think that if the NCAA Tournament began today, both of these teams would be in the field…though Utah’s footing is less treacherous than Oregon’s. Mostly, this is just an interesting battle between two frontcourts. N’Faly Dante is finally back for Oregon, and he and Kwame Evans will be relied upon heavily to battle with Utah’s pair of seven-footers. Does Oregon have the juice defensively to slow down a nasty Utah attack? Can Utah limit Oregon’s impact from three, which has been an Achilles heel for them?
NCAAW: #40 Arizona at #24 Washington State (-4.5), 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Simply put: Arizona needs wins. They’re a good team, but they’re 1-7 against Quad 1 and 2. These are two paint-heavy attacks, and Arizona hasn’t shown much in the way of game-over-game deviation, which may limit the upset odds.
NCAAW: #65 Vanderbilt at #36 Tennessee (-10.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Kellie Harper: win some games. Please. I don’t think we’re asking for much here.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #91 Murray State at #52 Drake (-9.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. #3 at #1 in the MVC here. Two great offenses versus two poor defenses, which makes this fun.
NCAAW: #26 Alabama (-3.5) at #72 Auburn, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Alabama is a genuinely pleasant story in women’s hoops, possibly the league’s #3 team after South Carolina and LSU. I don’t know if they’ve got a star in the traditional sense, but Sarah Ashlee Barker (16.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2 SPG) is just tremendous. Should have a great shot at All-SEC status, possibly first team? Auburn is more or less what was expected in preseason: the league’s 10th-12th best team.
4-6(ISH) PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #30 Oregon State at #2 Stanford (-13.5), 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Great matchup between two of the very best players in America: Oregon State's Raegan Beers (19.5 PPG, 11.9 RPG) and Stanford’s Cameron Brink (17.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 3.4 BPG). Most Stanford games are such big demolitions that Brink doesn’t have to play a ton of minutes, but here she’ll be relied on pretty heavily. Stanford’s weakness is more on the perimeter, which is really dangerous when playing an Oregon State team shooting 36% from deep on 23 attempts a game. Then again, Oregon State’s weakness is perimeter defense…where Stanford is shooting 35% on 23 attempts a game. Really fun one here.
Chiefs at Bills, 6:40 PM ET, CBS. I mean. Come on. This rules.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-18.5) at #58 Texas A&M, 5 PM ET, SEC Network. There’s a huge mismatch between Texas A&M’s resume (14-3, 4-3 vs. Q1/Q2) and what the computers think of them, which is more that of an NIT team. I think if nothing else, this game should be pretty telling as to which is more true.
NCAAW: #47 Arkansas at #8 LSU (-12.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN. Arkansas’s 14-5 record looks good until you see that two of those losses are to Q3/Q4 opponents, which is a no-go for a team fighting to simply make the NCAA Tournament. That being said, they can variance their way into a really interesting game. I’m unaware of any game being played this weekend with a wider split in three-point attempt rate: 46.3% of all shots for Arkansas, 19.3% for LSU.
#40 Indiana State (-6) at #137 Murray State, 5 PM ET, ESPN2. Murray State is alright, but as usual, this is for Indiana State. A relatively rare occurrence of them being on main ESPN/2 and not U/+!
THREE STARS
None. You’re locked in until 10 PM on Chiefs/Bills people.