Week 12 Weekend Watchlist
Forward down the field
Here’s the Monday-Friday watchlist if you missed it. Been a week, so I’m sorry I didn’t get more content up. I’ll be better about it this coming week and future weeks, promise. Anyway!
SATURDAY, JANUARY 27
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#18 Kansas at #12 Iowa State (-4), 1:30 PM ET, CBS. Fabulous affair here at the Hilton Coliseum, where Iowa State honestly may not need as much magic as they usually do. I wouldn’t really say I’m floored by Kansas’s ugly Big 12 losses thus far, because I wasn’t overly thrilled with them in non-conference play. But: I do want to bring up a thing I wrote earlier this week, because I’m a narcissist.
Based on that, Kansas is really fighting from behind to end up a 1 or 2 seed despite a pretty darn good resume. Iowa State doesn’t have the resume, but they’ve got the metrics. The key matchup here: an Iowa State offense with poor spacing versus a Kansas defense that has let several opponents space the court to their heart’s desire. On the other end, this is a deceptively simple matchup: does Iowa State have the juice to slow down Hunter Dickinson in the post for 40 full minutes? This is a big prove-it game for him, and based on his time at Michigan, that generally means 25 points, 11 rebounds, and a loss.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #36 Michigan at #21 Michigan State (-4.5), 12 PM ET, BTN+. This is pretty cool, dude. The in-state rivalry gets the noon tip treatment. I wish it were on real BTN, but it’s just how it goes. A real styles clash here between a go-go Michigan State offense and a Virginia-like Michigan offense. MSU will find points far easier to come by, generally, but Laila Phelia (Michigan) is the best defender on either team.
#61 Seton Hall at #17 Marquette (-9), 1 PM ET, FS1. Simple stuff here: this is a pretty pivotal Big East battle between a Marquette team that’s easily in the field and a Seton Hall team that isn’t yet. Marquette has better shot makers, but the area(s) in which Seton Hall’s offense is best (attacking the midrange, getting paint touches) are areas in which Marquette has questions without consistent answers.
THREE STARS
#45 Nebraska at #67 Maryland (-1), 12 PM ET, BTN. Two movable objects, two unstoppable forces. The bad thing for watchability is that there’s no crossover here. Nebraska’s fast and fun offense takes on a Maryland defense that has been tremendous all season long, while Maryland’s unwatchable offense takes on a Nebraska defense that’s really struggled to defend the perimeter.
#70 Georgia at #35 Florida (-7), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. This isn’t a Quadrant 1 game for Florida, so they’ll win it. The Gators are a tidy 0-6 against Q1 and 13-0 against everyone else. I do not believe that’s a Tournament resume, but the good news is they got a few weeks to fix it.
#60 Kansas State at #1 Houston (-17), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Kansas State is still hanging around despite ugly metrics, which have them 71st in NET and with a 5-5 record against top 100 competition. The good news for KSU is that they’re 2-1 against the other top 10 defenses they’ve played; the bad news is that the distance from Houston to #3 Iowa State is the same as the distance from #3 to #57.
#176 Georgetown at #47 Providence (-14), 12:30 PM ET, FOX. Exclusively on here because of the vitriolic atmosphere that awaits one Ed Cooley. Watch to the first media timeout, then change the channel.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #35 Nebraska at #4 Iowa (-12.5), 2 PM ET, BTN. Well, duh, of course this is grade inflation because Caitlin Clark is playing in the game. But let’s use this time to celebrate a really good Nebraska team that should get their moment in the sun this year. This is a Nebraska group ranking 28th in offensive PPP, one who possesses as dominant a rebounding side as you’ll see all year. (Their OREB% margin is a nasty +14%, meaning on 100 opportunities, they get 14 more offensive rebounds than their opponent.)
Mostly, this is your chance to devote some time to the superstar on the other side of the court. Jaz Shelley (12.1 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.2 RPG, 1.8 SPG) is not the leading scorer on her team, but she should be getting votes for First Team All-Big Ten. With Shelley on the court, Nebraska’s On/Off splits look like this.
As impactful a player as you’ll see without being a boxscore maven, though I want to note there’s only four men’s players this year and five other high-major women’s players averaging 10/4/5/1.5 this season. A delight.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #26 Iowa State (-0.5) at #34 West Virginia, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of great players who deserve their national due: West Virginia’s Ja’Naiya Quinerly (18.5 PPG, 3.6, APG, 3.3 SPG). Quinerly is the best player and an All-Big 12 lock on this stunning and delightful West Virginia team, who sits at 16-2 (5-2 Big 12). I think this is technically a Quad 2 game for them at the moment, but either way, a huge opportunity to keep the good vibes rolling.
#29 Texas Tech at #28 Oklahoma (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, time for toiletball. Mostly kidding. Texas Tech’s offense is actually pretty enjoyable to watch, though Oklahoma’s has slowed down from its non-conference heights and has a defense screaming for three-point regression. I wouldn’t say I’m worried about OU just yet, but at 15-4 with a NET ranking in the mid-30s and a combined 5-4 record against Quad 1/2 they don’t feel like they’re moving in the right direction.
#36 Texas at #9 BYU (-8), 2 PM ET, ESPN2. A pair of huge wins over Baylor and Oklahoma have let Texas off the hook for now and squarely back onto the Tournament bubble. I still feel pretty concerned about them, but it’s less dire than it appeared. As is the case with every BYU game now, this is just “will they hit threes.” BYU is 13-1 when hitting 34% or more from deep and 1-4 when they don’t. Look at the other Tournament-level teams Mark Pope has had and this trend sticks: 14-2 when hitting 34%+ in 2020-21 and 6-5 when not; 20-3 when hitting 34%+ in 2019-20 and 4-5 when not.
#53 Princeton (-2) at #110 Cornell, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is simply a delight and a game with real importance. I’ve been underwhelmed by Yale but the Ivy is just balling out this year as a whole, and this game should be no exception. The two teams have a combined record of 29-4, and these are two of the 25 or so best offenses in the sport this year. Princeton wants this game to be played in the 60s, while Cornell would be thrilled at anything 75+. Two stars in play here: Cornell’s Chris Manon (12.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.5 SPG) versus Princeton’s Caden Pierce (16.5 PPG, 10 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.4 SPG).
#39 Villanova at #57 Butler (-1), 3 PM ET, FS1. I have some skepticism here, but I feel it’s earned. Villanova alternates between interesting and stinky, while Butler is almost the perfect definition of a fringe bubble team that will be an NIT 3 seed. Still, these teams are fairly close in quality, so this should be a close and interesting game.
#4 Auburn (-4) at #37 Mississippi State, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Exciting battle here between Auburn and finally getting a Quadrant 1 victory on January 27.
THREE STARS
#6 North Carolina (-8) at #76 Florida State, 2 PM ET, ESPN. I still don’t believe that this UNC team is going to hold 3PT shooters to 28.5% from deep the entire year, but I also don’t believe an FSU team that hasn’t made more than 7 threes in a game since December 19 is the team to bust this. Then again, these guys already played once and FSU went 12-28 from deep.
#95 Yale (-4) at #199 Harvard, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the Ivy League undercard and an actual rivalry game, which equals a good atmosphere. Interesting matchup between a Yale team that projects to have a serious advantage in turnovers/rebounds against a Harvard offense with arguably the best pure scorer in the Ivy (Malik Mack).
#68 Pitt at #64 Miami (-4), 2:15 PM ET, The CW. In a just world this would be a bubble elimination game. Instead, it’s a “we have to pretend that you’re both still in this because you play in the ACC” game. (Also, both teams are entertaining enough on offense to get this to three stars.)
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#26 TCU at #14 Baylor (-6), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Fun! Plausibly of no consequence! After all, that’s a pretty perfect basketball game in five words. The way these two teams get their points is so different that it’s electrifying. Baylor is #1 in 3PT%; TCU is #330 in percentage of points scored from three. Both teams rank top 25 in OREB%, but TCU plays way faster and laps the field in fastbreak points. A Baylor win here likely sees them hold TCU to fewer than 70 points; a TCU win likely means this had a final somewhere in the neighborhood of 83-77.
FOUR STARS
#33 Clemson at #13 Duke (-7), 4 PM ET, ESPN. Two top 15 offenses with a lot of shooting prowess and very questionable hot-and-cold stretches will battle in a truly historic arena. I figure that alone is worth someone’s time.
#43 Utah State at #58 Boise State (-1), 4 PM ET, Mountain West Network. I truly wish this was on national television, but that’s just how it goes. Of the six Mountain West teams you need to know, Boise plays pretty easily the least attractive style of the group and also doesn’t have an identifiable star that belongs among the league’s top five players. But! They are just about unbeatable in Boise. They’re 42-6 post-COVID in ExtraMile Arena and never get blown out. Like, ever. The largest margin of loss over the last four years at home: seven points. 26 of those 48 games have resulted in either a Boise State single-digit win (20) or loss (6). Expect a close one here.
#5 Arizona (-6) at #51 Oregon, 5:30 PM ET, FOX. Well, I wrote a blurb for this and then Arizona got stunned by Oregon State on the road. So what I’ll do instead is note this: Arizona is the only team in America this year where multiple opponents have hit 60% or better from three on 20+ attempts. If you would like to read this as me saying BUY LOW, go for it.
THREE STARS
#118 Vermont at #155 Bryant (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. This is #342 vs. #358 in OREB%, which is interesting for everyone involved. Do you guys actively want offensive rebounds, then, or do you accept that ~85% of possessions are gonna be one-and-done?
#21 Colorado at #46 Washington State (-1), 5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Washington State did the thing we needed them to do on Wednesday, whooping Utah and both adding a good win and bettering their metrics in the process. Now, if they beat Colorado here, they can go 1-2 over their next three and still have an NCAA Tournament-level resume for the road ahead.
#49 Iowa (-1) at #84 Michigan, 5 PM ET, FS1. Two good offenses against two awful defenses. More importantly, two very angry coaches with very different styles of showing their anger.
6-8 PM ET
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEKEND
D2: #1 Moorhead State at #2 Minnesota State (-3.5), 6:30 PM ET, streaming. Rarely do I have to show my work with the six-star games. Usually, it’s between two brand names you’re well aware of. It’s also always a Division I game, and it’s also always on a national network. This is different. Hear me out.
These are, per Massey Ratings, the two best teams in Division 2 this year. I wouldn’t sit here and tell you they’d both be top 20 in D-1 because that would be wrong. It doesn’t matter. This is a Real, Actual Rivalry between teams separated by just four hours of Minnesota roads. Based on the current standings in both the men’s and women’s world at D1, the only #1 versus #2 matchup you can get will potentially be in the NCAA Tournament.
That’s why we’re here: to highlight a truly special event.
These are two elite, elite teams with considerably different styles of getting the job done. Neither team ever commits turnovers; it’s 11% versus 10% of all possessions. Moorhead is led by a backcourt of Jacob Beeninga (18.6 PPG) and JaMir Price (13.7 PPG), but these guards are unusual. Price hunts most of his points in the paint and rarely attempts threes. Beeninga shoots from all over but is incredibly effective at drawing fouls. Their frontcourt exists, but largely as a means to hammer the boards and serve as the screeners on P&R and dribble handoffs.
Minnesota State is merely the most exciting thing going in D2 right now, and I promise they’ll receive their offensive breakdown here soon. This is an extremely dangerous offense, one who is shooting 38% from deep on 25 attempts a game while also shooting 59% on twos. Please look at this.
Malik Willingham (19.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.5 SPG) is a Division 1 player. So is Justin Eagins (14.9 PPG), so is Kyreese Willingham (Malik’s brother, 13.7 PPG, 65% 2PT). I cannot wait for this. It’s everything I want to share with you all when I talk about great basketball at all levels.
FOUR STARS
#23 Dayton (-3) at #83 Richmond, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. If anyone is going to topple Dayton’s hopes for an outright regular season title in the A-10, it’s probably Richmond. This is 6-0 at 6-0 and is likely the last real thing standing between Dayton and something like a 16-2 or 17-1 conference record. A potentially good thing for Richmond: they’re 6-0 against the other teams they’ve played in the top 100 of three-point attempt rate. The bad news: they last beat a top-25 offense in the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament (Iowa).
#77 Bradley at #44 Indiana State (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. More conference race goodies. Indiana State can more or less make this race between them and Drake with a win here, while a Bradley win + a Drake defeat of Northern Iowa puts together a three-way tie at the top of the MVC. ISU defeated Bradley back in December, but it required a 48% night from three in a game where they lost the OREB/turnover battle by a combined -9. They need a more sustainable strategy to come out on top here.
#74 James Madison at #79 Appalachian State (-2), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Two things can be true: it’s pretty obvious that everyone overestimated the goodness of James Madison based on the Michigan State win and their undefeated run. It’s also true that James Madison is still a Tournament-level team, though more as a 12 or 13 seed than a true at-large. An App State win here could potentially finalize the conference race; they would move to a projected 16-2 in a league where everyone else would be 13-5 or worse.
THREE STARS
#20 Kentucky (-6) at #106 Arkansas, 6 PM ET, ESPN. College Gameday decisions get made well ahead of time, so I understand wanting to stick with a product actually on ESPN. Fine by me! How about going to Indiana State or App State instead? Maybe you could have gone to Baylor’s new arena for that game? I’m just confused as to why there’s no flexibility in these plans the way there is for football. Someone let me know in the replies on twitter or the comments here, thanks.
#101 Northern Iowa at #55 Drake (-8), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. The other, less exciting half of the MVC double. About a 55% shot both Drake and Indiana State win, by the way.
#69 UCF at #32 Cincinnati (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. If you play in the toughest conference, someone’s gonna get squeezed out of the NCAA Tournament despite great metrics. Cincinnati looks like a potential victim of this, now sitting at 2-4 Big 12 with a projected record of 8-10. Meanwhile: if UCF wins here I think you need to start taking them fairly seriously.
8-10 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #10 Notre Dame at #3 UConn (-10.5), 8 PM ET, FOX. One of the very best games of the season right here. I think it’s a simple equation, actually. How many games can you watch this weekend that feature a 20+ PPG scorer on each team? Hannah Hidalgo of Notre Dame continues to build some bonkers stats as a freshman: 23.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.6 APG, 5.4 SPG. Paige Bueckers of UConn is doing her thing once again: 20.6 PPG, 49% 3PT, 4.7 RPG, 3.8 APG.
If you were to sort out a race of who’ll be the runner-up to Caitlin Clark in Player of the Year voting, this is #2 (Hidalgo) playing #3 (Bueckers). For people who only watch the men’s side, it’s like getting a random game between Dalton Knecht (Tennessee) and DaRon Holmes (Dayton) in late January. This is great.
FOUR STARS
#50 Ohio State at #56 Northwestern (-3), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. I don’t think you can judge a team exclusively on offense or on defense, but it’s probably pretty telling for Ohio State. Chris Holtmann’s first three defenses: 15th, 25th, 19th. His last four: 82nd, 111th, 106th, 83rd. That’s a structural problem you’re either too stubborn to fix or can’t find the players to work with. At Ohio State.
THREE STARS
#81 LSU at #8 Alabama (-14), 8 PM ET, ESPN. Typically this lines up as a trap spot: team who just won a HUGE home game draws an opponent they believe they can walk over with relative ease. Post-COVID, it is truly an either/or for Alabama: when favored by 10+ against an SEC opponent (19 total games), they’ve won by 20+ 7 times and either won by <5 or outright lost 8 times. Whatever happens here, it likely won’t be close to that -14 figure.
#66 Ole Miss at #42 Texas A&M (-6), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Since I wrote about buying low on Texas A&M two weeks ago, they’re 3-1 with the one loss being a 1-point road one to Arkansas. That’s not ideal, but hey, 3-1. In the same timespan they’ve fallen eight spots in KenPom. So…I don’t know!
LATE
FIVE STARS
None.
FOUR STARS
#30 Utah (-1) at #73 Washington, 10 PM ET, ESPN2. Utah still looks good from a Tournament perspective, but they’re not a lock by any means. They’re somewhere between 28th and 32nd in pretty much every metric, seemingly; the perfect 8 seed. Washington refused to die for a bit, but now at 11-9, 3-6 Pac-12, this is essentially a must-win if they want to have any hopes whatsoever of a Tournament bid.
THREE STARS
#154 Loyola Marymount at #25 Saint Mary’s (-14), 10 PM ET, ESPNU. I put this on here before Saint Mary’s held a team to 28 points. Can I take it off? I don’t want to watch that.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 28
12-2 PM ET
FIVE STARS
#34 Xavier at #7 UConn (-10), 12 PM ET, FS1. Well, Xavier, here’s your shot. I’ve been beating the Xavier Is Actually Good drum for a couple of weeks now, convenient because I thought they’d suck in preseason. But! They have a shot. A win here puts them at 11-9, 5-4 BE; immediately following is four games they’re favored in, three of which would be Quadrant 1 or 2 wins. Even going 3-1 there and winning this one is giant, because a 14-10, 8-5 BE team is not hard at all to sell as bubble material. On the UConn side: just do your thing, fellas. They should possess a gigantic 2PT% disparity when the ball is in Xavier’s hands.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #11 Virginia Tech (-4.5) at #42 Syracuse, 12 PM ET, ACC Network. Huge, huge game for Syracuse. They’re 17-2, 7-1 ACC…and 47th in NET thanks to a 6-1 record in games decided by 7 or less. And yet: they own a sweep of Notre Dame. A win here goes a long, long way in both certifying them as an ACC contender and getting them into the NCAA Tournament after a two-year drought.
#72 North Texas at #27 Florida Atlantic (-8), 1 PM ET, ESPN2. The home team runs a very fun offense; the road team plays at the slowest pace in America. Even if this weren’t huge in the AAC race (5-1 at 6-1), it would be inherently interesting to see such a clash of styles.
NCAAW: #19 Maryland (-5.5) at #40 Penn State, 1 PM ET, BTN+. I think HHS might be underselling Penn State a bit, who sits 26th in NET, but at the same time they’re 1-5 against Quad 1 and 13-0 versus everyone else. Fun matchup between a point guard-less Penn State team (the highest assist rate of any rotation player is 21%) versus Maryland, whose best player is star point guard Shyanne Sellers (16 PPG, 5.4 APG).
THREE STARS
#2 Purdue (-13) at #97 Rutgers, 1 PM ET, FOX. This is only on here because Purdue has lost to Rutgers two straight years.
2-4 PM ET
FIVE STARS
Chiefs at Ravens, 3 PM ET, CBS. This is football’s Real Hoop. By the way, I’ve been informed that a certain subset of football fans really hate Lamar Jackson. Explain.
NCAAW: #6 Utah (-4.5) at #29 Oregon State, 3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Cinema. Utah pulled off a gigantic overtime win at home over AP #2 UCLA earlier this week in one of the best games of the year. Oregon State is merely 15-3 and undefeated at home. This is a battle of the titans in many ways: 99th-percentile versus 98th in DREB%, two teams that never foul, two teams burning the nets alive from two and three, but two completely different defensive styles. Utah is quite aggressive on the perimeter but struggles to protect the paint; Oregon State’s entire goal is “keep everything in front of you.”
Lastly: Alissa Pili (22.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG) versus Raegan Beers (19.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG). There’s your sell. Enjoy, however you can find this network.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #2 Stanford (-8.5) at #44 Arizona, 2 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Clark is your POTY but I think you can argue Stanford’s Cameron Brink is the most impactful player on a per-minute basis in the sport. Please remember she cracks just 22 MPG when I report these numbers your way: 16.9 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.2 BPG, 4.9 fouls drawn per game, and an average +/- of +19.8 in her time on the court. I mean.
NCAAW: #18 Baylor (-5.5) at #49 Oklahoma State, 2 PM ET, ESPNU. Large for both. Oklahoma State is in desperate need of wins to stay in the graces of the bubble, while Baylor has quietly lost three of four and nearly made it a full four-game losing streak before barely scraping past UCF. Two teams seeing their seasons slip away with a real need to right the ship = desperate hoops, which means a lot of fun for a neutral.
NCAAW: #15 Duke (-3.5) at #43 Miami (FL), 2 PM ET, ACC Network. We can officially say it now: Kara Lawson has Duke rocking. A 5-4 start has turned into an 8-2 streak, peaking with a 42-point blowout win of Florida State last night. I don’t think anyone wants to play Duke right now, especially not a Miami team now 2-5 in the ACC, but that’s how it works sometimes.
NCAAW: #34 Tennessee at #45 Ole Miss (-1.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN. Well, credit to Kellie Harper: she refuses to die. Tennessee is now 8-1 in their last 9, with the last five all being over top 100 competition. I think they’ve mostly found their stride on defense after an awful start to the season, now holding opponents to an adjusted 40.3% eFG% (-5.6% below national average). The Ole Miss offense they’ll go up against here is a good one, so it’s an interesting test. A win for Tennessee here sneakily puts them in sole possession of second place in the SEC.
THREE STARS
#40 SMU (-7) at #159 Wichita State, 3 PM ET, ESPN2. Like it or not, we have to monitor SMU now. They’re up to 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and while I don’t think they’re gonna hold opponents to 27% from three for a full year, the defense itself is legit: 13th in 2PT%, 15th in Block%, 34th in Steal%. Quietly 32nd in NET, but 80th in Wins Above Bubble. I think they’ve gotta go 10-2 or possibly even 11-1 from here to have an at-large shot.
NCAAW: #66 Vanderbilt at #1 South Carolina (-31.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. How many times in life will you see a 17-3 team be a 31-point underdog?
4-6 PM ET
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #22 Washington State at #9 UCLA (-7.5), 4 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. Big bounce-back spot for UCLA here after dropping a toughie to Utah on the road. Meanwhile, big chance for Washington State to solidify an already very good resume. My fear for Wazzu here is pretty simple: do they have the firepower to hang? UCLA has five of the top seven (!) scorers in this game. Per Hoop-Explorer, all of Kiki Rice, Charisma Osborne, and Lauren Betts rate out better than Wazzu’s top player (Bella Murekatete). I think both teams are really, really good, but this feels like a good spot for UCLA.
FOUR STARS
None.
THREE STARS
#54 Memphis (-5) at #148 UAB, 5 PM ET, ESPN. This is a deeply, deeply discounted version of a once-great series, but for those who know, you know.
6-LATE PM ET
THE 900-MILLION STAR GAME OF THE UNIVERSE
Lions at 49ers, 6:40 PM ET, FOX. OH MY GOD
THEY ARE IN THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
In all seriousness, I know people hate to hear this but this is a classic House Money Game. The goal for this year was for the Lions to win the division (check) and win one (1) playoff game (check). Then when you got the gift of playing Tampa Bay at home, it became win two playoff games (check). There is nothing - absolutely nothing - they could do here that would make me genuinely sad, short of blowing a 25-point lead or something. They’ve already done more than what I have seen in my entire lifetime. I want the Super Bowl bad, don’t get me wrong, but this is already pretty nice. They promised and delivered. Go get ‘em.
FIVE STARS
#48 Nevada at #23 New Mexico (-7), 10 PM ET, FS1. If I am somehow still alive and awake, what a joy this is. I kind of can’t believe it exists on a Sunday night? Either way, elite offensive battle here. Nevada’s backcourt of Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear versus the three-headed monster of Jamal Mashburn/Donovan Dent/Jaelen House, oh boy. Chug some coffee, people. I’m saying it to myself, too.
FOUR STARS
None.
THREE STARS
None.