Week 16 Weekday Watchlist: 16 thoughts on the bracket reveal and the season at-large
A super-convenient number!
In lieu of a standard essay, I thought it would be more fun to look at the bracket reveal from Saturday. Is it that informative? Actually, yes, because these teams generally stay at the top of the field. (The committee is also pretty lazy, to be honest.) It’s fun to look at that, but I want to zoom out to the season as a whole towards some trends I’m seeing. Here you go.
The seeding order for the top four was correct and it remains correct. Purdue is now 23-3 after a less-embarrassing-than-it-initially-looks road loss to Ohio State. The temptation is to look at this and say UConn should’ve been the #1 overall seed the entire time, but it’s not that simple to me. Purdue and UConn have the same number of Quadrant 1 wins and the same number of Quadrant 2-4 losses. The main difference is Purdue’s 15 Q1+Q2 wins to UConn’s 14, along with a +8.6 Wins Above Bubble to UConn’s +7.5. Even with the loss, they should still be the #1 overall seed. Houston has superior metrics but four fewer Q1+Q2 wins than either of the top two. Arizona has the fourth-best resume and the fourth-best metrics. All fair.
The 2-seed line was very questionable. For starters, I was baffled at North Carolina being #5 overall ahead of Tennessee. The Heels do have one extra Q1+Q2 win, but also a Q3 loss. They rank lower in NET, Strength of Record, and both predictive metrics the committee uses. There’s not much of a defense for it. If you were strictly ranking on resume, you would’ve put Tennessee and Kansas ahead of the Heels. Aside from that I was largely fine with the teams actually on the two-seed line, just that the order felt off.
The three most intriguing teams to watch the rest of the way are Iowa State, Alabama, and Auburn. If you seeded the field entirely based on predictive metrics, all three would be 2 seeds. If you seeded the field based on resume strength, Auburn would be a 4 seed (which they were) and Alabama a 3 (same). Iowa State is getting dinged for an atrocious non-conference schedule, but they’re at the point where a 9-5 record versus Q1/Q2 and no bad losses is going to have them in contention for the 2 line.
The SEC riser isn’t Kentucky, it’s Florida. 17th in SOR, top-30 in both predictive metrics, zero Q2-Q4 losses, and now up to three Q1 wins. They have the resume of a 6-seed and have played like a top-20 team since New Year’s Day.
The “road teams can’t win” narrative is becoming overblown. This was already covered by our friend Ken at his Substack, but let me be another to emphasize it. As of now, home teams are winning 59.8% of games. That’s actually 0.1% less than last year and continues a downward slide from a consistent 62% hit rate 20 years ago to about 59-60% now. Top 10 AP teams are just 37-36 against unranked competition on the road, though. Is that an example of how college basketball has changed forever and how this season is crazier than EVER BEFORE??? Probably not; the expected W-L would be something like 43-30. The top 10 team is 13-22 in games decided by 6 or less and 24-14 in everything else, the latter of which is within a couple percent of what you’d expect. There’s some luck involved here, which is fine. Luck makes things interesting and fun! Embrace it.
There might be some teams with actual away-from-home problems, though. Iowa State is just 5-5, with the best non-home win being Texas. Wisconsin is 5-7. Kansas is 6-6 and their offense is 11 points worse per 100 possessions away from home. I’m not sure how I feel about those teams for March purposes.
You can believe it or not, but we’re probably seeing one of the best regular seasons we’ve ever seen…in terms of quality of play. Hear me out. Offensive efficiency, turnover percentage, 2PT%, and FT% are the highest they’ve been in the sport’s history at this time of a season. Charge calls are lower than ever. Offensive rebounding actually matters again. At 72.7 PPG, we’re on pace for the highest-scoring season since 2017-18 and the second-highest since 1994-95. Whether people have figured it out or not is anyone’s guess but the average college basketball game is as watchable as we’ve had in years.
If you zoom out from the race for the #1 overall seed, it’s been a great regular season elsewhere. One of Purdue or Connecticut has been the #1 team in the AP Poll every week since December 18, and it seems fairly likely that stays the case until the NCAA Tournament unless Houston wins out. Outside of that, it’s been wild. Just going by KenPom, you have a wide variety of historical non-powers inside the top 20: Alabama, Auburn, Iowa State, BYU. You have five teams from ‘mid-major’ conferences in the top 25. South Carolina, the consensus 14th-place team in the SEC, made it all the way to AP #11. Indiana State got ranked. It’s been a fun year.
The race for the 1 seeds is mostly settled. It’s Purdue, UConn, Houston, and then a fourth. Who’s the fourth? Probably Arizona without multiple losses against a weak schedule. If they can’t do it or if another team rises up with a better resume that’ll open up a spot. I think Tennessee has the best shot to capitalize, followed by some grouping of Alabama/North Carolina/Kansas/Iowa State in whatever order. It feels like Marquette’s odds are fully cooked; Auburn has metrics but not great wins. Alabama and Auburn functionally have the same resume but Alabama’s strength of schedule is far better, which keeps them alive.
I think you can fully, completely lock in about…27? teams right now. I’m trying to pick a bone with any of the below teams and I’m struggling to do so.
That’s 27 of a possible 68 spots more or less locked down. The *** = conference winners, which means in the above image you’ve got 9 conference winners and 18 at-larges. Basically, 27 of your top ~45 teams are determined. Time to find the other 18.
No one likes that this is so, but it’s between the Big 12 and SEC for the best conference in basketball. I’m going very loosely with the data here, but let’s compare performances against top 150 competition. (That roughly gets in every Tournament-level team, even those in the 15/high 16 seed range.) There’s 327 teams who’ve played at least five of those games. In terms of overall efficiency, the Big 12 has four of the top 15 teams and seven of the top 40. Now, the SEC has eight of 40, and six are inside the top 25. But no Big 12 team is as bad as Vanderbilt, and even Missouri would be worse than any Big 12 group this year. Pick whichever you want of the Big 12 or SEC, I guess. I don’t know why people care so much about this, but they do.
The ACC has caught too much crap. Yes, even I, an ACC Hater, can say this. Same data set from before: only UNC and Duke are top 25 teams, but Wake is on the periphery at 26th. They only have four top-40 teams, but 10 of the conference’s teams are inside the top 80, or 67%. That’s a better ratio than the Big Ten, Pac-12, and MWC. Not bad! Do I really believe they’re the fourth-best conference? No, but this thought that they’re far off from the pack has officially become Too Much.
Purdue, Illinois, Alabama, and Creighton are fascinating March test cases. Why? Because all four of them have negative turnover margins. Since 2011, there have been 56 1-5 seeds with a negative turnover margin entering the NCAA Tournament. Only two of them (2016 Oklahoma, 2019 Michigan State) made the Final Four, with a total of seven seeing the Elite Eight. On average, this group won nearly half a game less than anticipated. Can any one of these four buck historical trends?
My personal opinion: this Tournament won’t be as wild as 2023’s. This is backed up by my research, which shows that while still more parity-filled than a traditional season, it’s not on the level it was last year. You’ll likely at least see a 1 seed make the Final Four or something this year…to go along with a 7 seed.
As it always has and always will, Shot Volume Matters. Our very simple Shot Volume equation, originally introduced by John Gasaway years ago, is 100 - TO% + OREB%. No champion in the last 22 years has gone below a 112.3 (2016 Villanova), and they made up for it with terrific defensive shot volume. No champion has ever done it with an Overall Shot Volume (offense - defense) below +3.9, which was 2006 Florida. No one at the top is in obvious danger, but Alabama (+4.9) comes close. The real pretender here: Kansas at +0.2. You’re really reliant on shooting the lights out every single night in the Tournament if you play that way.
But, as always, Shot Efficiency Matters, Too. Only one team in the last 22 years - 2010-11 UConn - has won it all with a sub-50% eFG%. (Sorry, Houston.) But you’ve gotta be efficient on defense, too; no one has ever won it all with the opponent topping 49.2% eFG% on average. (Sorry, Baylor.) 2010-11 UConn and 2016-17 UNC are also the only teams to ever go below the +5% mark in terms of an eFG% advantage, which makes me doubtful of UNC (+4.9%).
To avoid this being wildly long, the games below will receive minimal blurbs. All D-1 men’s rankings are via KenPom. All D-1 women’s rankings are via Her Hoop Stats. Subscribe here people. Word-of-mouth really does work best, because I don’t advertise and don’t like the idea of doing so.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 19
Happy Family Day to our Canadian readers!
FIVE STARS
The 2024 Daytona 500, 4 PM ET, FOX. Argue with a wall. I unapologetically love NASCAR, love this race, and love the circus it provides. If you guys can obsess over wrestling you can surely let me have this.
NCAAW: #14 Notre Dame at #16 Duke (-1.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Unreal day of hoops for a random Monday in February, no?
#9 Iowa State at #1 Houston (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is possibly the least-sexy top-10 matchup possible: #3 at #1 in defense. It doesn’t help that the first matchup had 110 combined points. Still, you don’t get #9 at #1 often.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #18 Creighton at #3 UConn (-13.5), 12 PM ET, FOX. Five stars? Maybe. But UConn has not played a single home game within 15 points this season. It’s all blowouts. Hopefully Creighton overachieves to make it interesting.
THREE STARS
#140 Colgate (-7) at #311 Lafayette, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. #1 at #2 in the Patriot League. A win here for Colgate clinches the regular season title.
NCAAW: #6 LSU (-8.5) at #56 Texas A&M, 7 PM ET, SEC Network.
#53 Virginia at #64 Virginia Tech (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN.
#73 Kansas State at #29 Texas (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20
FIVE STARS
#2 UConn (-2) at #13 Creighton, 8:30 PM ET, FS1. If you would like to see the AP #1 team lose a game between now and the NCAA Tournament, this is your best chance. Well, this and March 6 at Marquette, but nothing about how the Marquette game went Saturday makes me think they’re capable of winning a rematch. Creighton did lose the first version of this game 62-48, but a repeat 23% performance from 3 is less likely, especially at home where they’ve shot 37%.
#12 Baylor at #16 BYU (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Look, like it or not, this is a five-star game between two five-star offenses. This is the #4 offense playing at #8. If you like when Alabama plays Kentucky, you will like this. A lot.
FOUR STARS
#18 San Diego State (-1) at #41 Utah State, 9 PM ET, CBSSN.
#32 TCU at #23 Texas Tech (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
#51 Pitt at #26 Wake Forest (-6), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. God almighty, TV execs, can we spread these games out a little bit? Was it that important to put Syracuse/NC State on ESPN2 at 7 instead? Now I, the protagonist of history, won’t get to watch any of them because Baylor/BYU and UConn/Creighton will be on instead. Thanks!
THREE STARS
#55 Butler at #31 Villanova (-6), 6:30 PM ET, FS1.
#76 VCU at #96 UMass (-1), 7 PM ET, CBSSN.
#57 Iowa at #15 Michigan State (-10), 7 PM ET, Peacock. A Michigan State win here quietly gives them a four-game win streak…which would be their second-longest of the season behind a five-game win streak in December.
#97 Akron (-1) at #137 Toledo, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. First place in the MAC on the line here.
#52 Maryland at #19 Wisconsin (-7), 9 PM ET, Peacock.
#69 San Francisco at #22 Saint Mary’s (-8), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. 21-6 at 21-6. Did you know San Francisco is 21-6? I genuinely did not! Jonathan Mogbo, your kingdom awaits.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21
FIVE STARS
#27 Florida at #6 Alabama (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I toyed for a long time with if this should or shouldn’t be a five-star game, but purely from watchability, it absolutely is. Florida has but a 20% chance of pulling off the upset, but they’ve played like the 17th-best team in the nation since New Year’s Day, per Torvik. Alabama: #11. If this is as close as that suggests you’re in for a treat.
#28 Colorado State at #25 New Mexico (-4), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. Do you like extremely even basketball games? This is for you. #28 at #25. #32 offense taking on the #30 defense. #31 offense taking on the #33 defense. It might be the most even game of the season, which means it should be a 40-minute battle.
FOUR STARS
#11 Duke (-6) at #81 Miami, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Very little depth on the men’s side after the top two. This is the best of the bunch.
NCAAW: #26 West Virginia at #22 Kansas State (-7.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. A must-win game for both, as these two 11-3 Big 12 teams want to stay in the title race with Texas (11-3) and Oklahoma (12-2).
THREE STARS
#126 Western Carolina at #141 UNC Greensboro (-3), 6 PM ET, CBSSN. UNCG must win to stay alive in the SoCon title race; they likely need a Samford loss, too.
#8 Illinois (-8) at #93 Penn State, 6:30 PM ET, BTN.
#24 Dayton (-3) at #95 George Mason, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
#144 Furman at #71 Samford (-10), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. A Samford win and a UNCG loss almost fully locks in a SoCon conference title.
#56 Providence at #44 Xavier (-4), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
NCAAW: #49 Kansas at #19 Baylor (-9.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Kansas: quietly winners of 5 in a row and back on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A sixth would be a season-shifter.
#68 Ole Miss at #35 Mississippi State (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
#21 Kentucky (-4) at #78 LSU, 9 PM ET, ESPN. All-time letdown spot for Kentucky after an unbelievable road win at Auburn Saturday. My source: the fact Kentucky’s last three opponents combined to shoot 13-62 (20.9%) from three. That won’t hold for long.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22
THE SIX-STAR GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #4 Iowa at #7 Indiana (-1.5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Caitlin Clark vs. Mackenzie Holmes. I offer no further sell for this. Watch it.
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #8 Utah at #12 UCLA (-4.5), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN. A GOOD PAC-12 GAME THAT ISN’T ON THE PAC-12 NETWORK! Can you believe it? What a joy. This won’t have a huge effect on the Pac-12 race, but both of these teams are serious Final Four threats.
FOUR STARS
NCAAW: #28 Alabama at #1 South Carolina (-22.5), 7 PM ET, SEC Network.
#39 SMU at #34 Florida Atlantic (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Big one to stay in touch for the AAC title.
NCAAW: #13 NC State (-4.5) at #36 North Carolina, 8 PM ET, ACC Network.
#33 Washington State at #4 Arizona (-11), 11 PM ET, FS1. Washington State is a half-game out of first place; a win here would not only firmly plant them in the field of 68, it might knock Arizona off the 1-seed line. Huge game here for that purpose specifically.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #11 Ohio State (-7.5) at #44 Penn State, 6 PM ET, BTN.
NCAAW: #16 Duke (-4.5) at #45 Syracuse, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Syracuse is the NCAAW equivalent to South Carolina on the men’s side this year: a very gaudy resume, but pretty middling metrics to go with it.
Half of the CAA games. They’re all at 7 PM on CBSSN (Drexel/Hofstra) or Flo Sports (everything else), which are two networks I do not get through my current streaming package. Still, what a conference race.
#62 Ohio State at #67 Minnesota (-3), 8 PM ET, BTN. Minnesota is 21-3 ATS this year, which is capital-I Insane. Ohio State’s new manager bounce is a thing to watch for.
#58 Grand Canyon (-5) at #147 Tarleton State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
#118 Morehead State (-3) at #234 Western Illinois, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Biggest home game in Western Illinois…history? Maybe? This is for first place in the OVC. Chad Boudreau is a name to watch in coaching.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23
FIVE STARS
NCAAW: #15 Colorado at #17 USC (-2.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. JuJu Watkins. What a player!
FOUR STARS
#87 Yale at #101 Cornell (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for first place in the Ivy, which is a huge deal. This is a dead heat as it stands, with three great teams all roughly at the same level of goodness. It’s a shame only one will play in March.
THREE STARS
NCAAW: #20 Oregon State at #30 Washington State (-2.5), 10 PM ET, Pac-12 Network. The Pac-12 undercard of the night should still deliver. By the way, if you haven’t seen the UCLA/Oregon State finish from this previous weekend, STOP WHAT YOU ARE DOING AND WATCH IT RIGHT NOW I still cannot believe what I saw. (2:41 onward.)