Week 9 Watchlist: Here It Comes Again
One more time for 2024
The Watchlist Tune o’ the Week
I will be honest: this is already very long and I have another giant piece coming later this week that’s a conference play primer for all 31 conferences. It’s also been a very busy weekend and time of year, so alas. Essays and commentary return next week.
As a reminder, we have a new scoring system this year to simplify things a bit. The A/B/C scale is here.
A GAMES are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ GAME every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
B GAMES are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
C GAMES are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
We hope to never get to D or F GAMES this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All D2/D3/NAIA lines are from Massey Ratings. NEW! All lines for women’s games are via Bart Torvik. Watchlists are always free, so subscribe here to avoid missing one.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 30
A GAME
None. I’m driving this evening so it’ll be Lions/49ers on the radio for me. Also, I wrote about 80% of this on Saturday/Sunday in a Texas hotel room in between tourism stuff, so the rankings may not be fully perfect. My condolences, or congratulations, whichever works.
B GAMES
#21 Cincinnati (-5) at #90 Kansas State, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is opening week of conference play for around 70% of conferences. I don’t think you can pull *too* much from them in that case. Recall that after one week of hoop last year, the Big 12 leaders were Baylor and Kansas State. Still, we’re approaching Must-Win Territory for Kansas State just to keep their season alive in some sense. They’re at -2.5 WAB right now and went 6-5 against a pedestrian non-con slate. To get into serious at-large talks they probably need to go 12-8 (18-13 overall) in Big 12 play, which does kind of make this a must-win. For UC it’s more like a don’t-lose, as this may be their easiest road game.
#74 TCU at #24 Arizona (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Less extreme is Arizona’s case. They’re 6-5 but sit at just -1 WAB. This is a don’t-lose game. I’d also say that if you’re Arizona, this January/end of December 9-game run needs to be 6-3 at worst.
#5 Iowa State (-9) at #76 Colorado, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Colorado is 8-7 as a home underdog in the last decade but what I’d figured to be a huge advantage at elevation apparently isn’t so. Iowa State’s actually better ATS post-COVID as the home team. Still, a great team’s first road game outside of their home state is worth watching.
#73 Santa Clara at #61 San Francisco (-5), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a really good WCC year. There are six teams inside the KenPom top 80! That’s fantastic. It’s probably the best and deepest the WCC has been since the COVID-aborted season where all of Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary’s would’ve made the field. It’s so good that neither of these two teams, both on track to finish with 20+ wins, might be among the three best in the league.
C GAMES
#139 Akron at #109 Princeton (-4), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a classic in the Early Afternoon Holiday Game genre: two good mid-majors that might win their own leagues scrap it out to an audience of a few thousand on ESPN+ as the main ESPN networks are either playing the Music City Bowl or First Take reruns. ESPNU has a pair of 2024 conference title football game replays followed by four (???) straight episodes of a documentary on Oklahoma football’s 2024 season in which they went 6-7.
#273 Monmouth at #1 Auburn (-35), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Would you like to watch a legalized murder?
#4 Houston (-12) at #104 Oklahoma State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is somehow Houston’s first road game despite having played four of their 11 games thus far somewhere other than home court. As such, there is some interest here, and Oklahoma State is the rare sub-100 KenPom team that could hang with Houston on the boards. But Other OSU’s interior defense is so bad that it may not matter, while their offense struggles mightily to generate easy points.
#69 UC Irvine (-5) at #149 Cal Baptist, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Again, awesome game shoved to ESPN Plus. Why? ESPNU is showing a re-run of the Indiana/Notre Dame CFP game at the same time. Now, this may strike some as strange, but a network theoretically built on live sports should probably show more live sports!
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31
A GAMES
#12 St. John’s (-2) at #51 Creighton, 4 PM ET, Peacock. Great midday NYE affair here. I don’t think I’m at full PANIC with Creighton just yet but a -6.9 TO margin per 100 is horrific. They badly need Steven Ashworth to cut back on his turnovers. They’re also in serious need of anything at all from the non-Kalk/Ashworth members of this roster. Jamiya Neal is fine, Jackson McAndrew and Fredrick King are decent depth players. The problem is you need five good players in the Big East and they might have 2.5 right now depending on what version of Neal shows up for a game. Mason Miller in particular has been a crushing disappointment.
Fiesta Bowl (Penn State vs. Boise State), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. Sure, this probably produces the expected outcome of Penn State by around 10-15 points and therefore won’t be that exciting. But I keep looking at it and thinking Boise can muck this up just enough, that Ashton Jeanty can run through just enough 8+ man boxes, that James Franklin can find one or two things to goof up at the right time. That probably still ends up a 3-point PSU win but that’s pretty fun to watch if so.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #32 Utah (-3.5) at #58 Arizona, 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Utah is fascinating to me this year; coach Lynne Roberts left for a WNBA job all of two weeks after the season began, but under interim Gavin Petersen they look more or less exactly as you’d expect. Their guard play is terrific. My major question: do they have a big that can slow down Arizona’s awesome Breya Cunningham?
#48 West Virginia at #8 Kansas (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. The two teams who’ve beaten Kansas play almost perfectly juxtaposed defensive styles: Missouri helter skelter, Creighton a permanent drop coverage with a guard riding your back at all times. I’m fascinated by this game because WVU is much more the latter and they’ve already knocked off Gonzaga.
#46 VCU at #76 St. Bonaventure (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of situationals! The three teams who’ve had the best offensive outings against this nuts VCU defense (Nevada, Miami, New Mexico) are all guard-led groups that keep turnovers low and took advantage of VCU’s grabbiness to get a free throw conga line going. The Bonnies…do not do that. We’ll see! By the way, over at Bart Torvik’s site, no game has more at-large leverage up for grabs than this one. Huge fixture for both.
#10 Marquette (-5) at #78 Providence, 6 PM ET, FS1. I would love to be wrong for personal reasons, but boy, this has “heartbreaking 3-point home loss for Providence” written all over it.
#46 Utah State at #56 Nevada (-3), 10 PM ET, MWN. Periodic update in the Who Should I Root For to Win This Dead-Even Mountain West Game standings: to build up their at-large resume, I would argue Nevada needs this one significantly more than Utah State does, especially given USU’s awesome road win this weekend.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #47 Washington at #35 Illinois (-6), 12 PM ET, BTN. Intriguing matchup here between #11 in offensive FT Rate (Illinois) and #353 (Washington). Neither team fouls much, so TBD!
#63 Utah at #18 Baylor (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Baylor’s three best offensive performances against top-100 competition have all come against teams that play drop coverage as their primary defensively…which is what Utah generally leans to as well. I don’t love this matchup for the Utes defensively. The other aspect here is that opponents have shot 39.5% from deep against Baylor thus far. While I’m no fan of what Baylor does on D they’re clearly due for better days.
#75 UCF at #13 Texas Tech (-13), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm assigning a grade of incomplete for Texas Tech until we hear more about JT Toppin, who hasn’t played since November 29. With Toppin I think Tech might be one of the 10 best teams in the country; without it’s more like top 25.
Sun Bowl, 2 PM ET, CBS. I’ve been thinking a lot about these supposedly ‘iconic’ bowl game venues that exist. #1, first and foremost, is the Rose Bowl. What would #2 be? I don’t think the Sugar Bowl is iconic venue-wise; it’s a sterile NFL stadium. Same for the Orange Bowl. The Cotton Bowl was pretty cool at the actual Cotton Bowl but now it’s at Jerry World. So: is the second-most ‘iconic’ bowl game venue the Sun Bowl? Sounds nuts, but it offers an actual unique venue and is on the same channel/time every single year. God, these games suck.
#171 Norfolk State at #3 Tennessee (-25), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Tennessee got their wake-up call from Middle Tennessee, then proceeded to outscore the Blue Raiders 48-24 in the second half. Norfolk generally does fine in these games but their double team/blitz on the perimeter is like a MEAC version of ones from Baylor and Miami that Tennessee shredded pretty easily. Also: #14 in OREB playing #327 in DREB. Tennessee is on here no matter what level of opponent until they lose. Same for Auburn and Duke.
NCAAW: #30 Minnesota (-9.5) at #93 Wisconsin, 3:30 PM ET, BTN+. Minnesota projects to have a truly bonkers +10 turnover margin in this game but Big Ten road games are never easy.
#56 Arizona State at #43 BYU (-6), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. Fine, I’m rooting for BYU. I have nothing against Arizona State’s players but I want nothing of hearing about Bobby Hurley for the next two months as he wastes space in a First Four bid.
#153 Virginia Tech at #2 Duke (-24), 4:30 PM ET, ACC Network. Yuck. I think I was wrong on Mike Young, or maybe just wrong about the fit here.
NEW YEAR’S DAY
A GAMES
NCAAW: #30 Michigan at #3 UCLA (-16.5), 5 PM ET, BTN. Clearly the Big Ten/former Pac-12 team crossover in the Los Angeles metro area at 5 PM you’re all waiting for! This will get buried for obvious reasons by larger things going on, but boy, what a banger. Michigan is extremely young and extremely entertaining in how young they are. You’re aware of UCLA and need no sell there - they have the best defense in basketball by some distance - but Michigan’s pair of Olivia Olson and Syla Swords can push buttons in the right way against even the best defenses.
Rose Bowl (Ohio State vs. Oregon), 5 PM ET, ABC/ESPN. My observations to this game that are beyond “this is cool and I love the Rose Bowl so much thank God it’s on New Year’s Day they’ll never ruin my perfect Rose Bowl no matter how much SEC football wackos think it sucks” are as follows: it would be really, really funny if Ryan Day and Ohio State lose by exactly one point again.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #23 Iowa (-7.5) at #59 Penn State, 1 PM ET, BTN+. Penn State needs this one badly but I’m really intrigued by Iowa right now. They’re actually better on defense, which isn’t what we’re used to from them. I think teams that are more perimeter-heavy will give them trouble but PSU’s not that.
NCAAW: #36 Nebraska at #7 USC (-16), 3 PM ET, BTN. Another fun New Year’s game! I like WBB attempting to own some territory here that MBB has largely ceded to football. I’m not all the way in on USC yet but they’re clearly excellent. Nebraska’s style, though, is perfect for upset bait: low on fouls, elite on the boards, and very, very good at shooting, all centered around a low-and-slow tempo.
NCAAW: #39 Oklahoma State at #19 Baylor (-9), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. A real stat: three times this year, Baylor has posted a higher 2PT% than FT%. It tracks with how they play but that seems like it’ll be problematic at some point, no?
#28 North Carolina (-2) at #59 Louisville, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. My favorite goofy stat for this game: in the Hubert Era, UNC is 50-11 when they rebound 30% or more of their missed shots. They are also 50-11 when they shoot 51% or better from two. Add those together in the same game and UNC is 38-3.
C GAMES
#144 UNC Greensboro at #142 Wofford (-3), 12 PM ET, CBSSN. These are two of the better SoCon options for the Tournament. I don’t love this one for Wofford, a team that hates taking pull-up jumpers against a UNCG team that forces a lot of them.
Peach Bowl (Texas vs. Arizona State), 1 PM ET, ABC/ESPN. This is the one Playoff game I’m fine missing. It’s on, I’m sure it’ll be better than I think, but given the proclivities and giant talent edge of Texas it feels like a slow march to a 27-17 win.
#15 UConn (-8) at #97 DePaul, 2 PM ET, CBSSN. Amazing but true: if 8 points holds it’s the third-smallest spread in a UConn/DePaul game since 2007 (24 total). I love Competitive DePaul - they aren’t very good but they’ll go 6-14 in the Big East and pull off an upset you don’t expect.
NCAAW: #66 Kansas at #42 Iowa State (-7), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This Iowa State season so far has been bizarrely disappointing. Can they start to figure it out now?
#53 Villanova at #68 Butler (-1), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. At Torvik right now, with all preseason priors removed, Villanova rates out #4 offensively…and #264 on defense. I don’t really think the offensive side is a coaching thing and is more just Eric Dixon playing amazing basketball, so what is it that Kyle Neptune does here?
NCAAW: #64 Colorado at #9 TCU (-18.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. TCU, albeit against a fine-not-fabulous schedule, sits #3 in offensive and defensive 2PT% to the tune of outshooting their opponents inside the perimeter by 22%. If you did that for one game you’d be happy let alone 13.
NCAAW: #68 Seton Hall at #51 Villanova (-5), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. Must-win for Villanova or more like a can’t-lose. At -1.4 WAB just two months into a season where it felt like they’d make the NCAAT they need this.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 2
A+ GAME OF THE WEEK
NCAAW: #4 Texas (-6.5) at #12 Oklahoma, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a delight, a true clash of styles and game-winning philosophies. On one side is Texas, a team that hammers the rim and is #1 in America in rim FG% (75.2%!) but is also unusually reliant on a group of guards far more comfortable from midrange than three. At 17 attempts a game, only a few teams in the sport are taking more midrange jumpers than the Longhorns. They’ve got an elite frontcourt that is monstrous on the boards as well.
Oklahoma’s game is more pace-and-space. Only three teams in the sport play faster; only 6% of teams attempt more threes a game than OU’s 26.6. They don’t run P&R at all, instead choosing to run a lot of their half-court stuff through post Raegan Beers. If you’re purely going by shot volume, as I often do, this should be a Texas win. But teams like Oklahoma have real edges in game like these because of the huge 3 > 2 math edge they can possess. If OU’s on it could result in a giant home win to begin SEC play. Can’t wait.
A GAMES
Sugar Bowl (Notre Dame vs. Georgia), 4 PM ET, ABC/ESPN. This isn’t as good as OSU/Oregon but is more fascinating to me because I honestly have no clue what Georgia’s got to work with at quarterback. It seemed in the SEC title game that the young man named Gunner or Gunnar was producing the lowest-risk throws and plays possible. Can’t do that against Notre Dame!
#19 Illinois at #17 Oregon (-4), 10 PM ET, FS1. I love a linear trend. Illinois’s three losses and two worst defensive performances in wins have all had a similar trend: every opponent in this batch got at least 41% of their shots in the paint and 26% within four feet of the rim, per CBB Analytics. The good news for Illinois is that Oregon ranks 190th in points per game at the rim. The bad news is that both teams badly need to get to the free throw line to generate points, and Oregon’s a bit better at staving off fouls than Illinois is.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #53 Saint Joseph’s at #49 George Mason (-3.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. The Atlantic 10 has a real shot at sending three (!) teams to the NCAA Tournament this year on the women’s side. This would be gigantic for several reasons, as the A10 hasn’t done this since 2016, but it would be huge for these two teams in particular. St. Joe’s hasn’t seen March since 2014, and George Mason’s next Tournament bid will be their first in school history. I’m hoping they both pull this off.
NCAAW: #20 Florida State (-7) at #51 Virginia Tech, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Post-Kenny Brooks VT isn’t great but is playing like a bubble team. I think they might give up a billion buckets at the rim here to Ta’Niya Latson and crew, but FSU’s defense is very gettable too. Points? Points.
NCAAW: #26 Ole Miss (-1) at #38 Auburn, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. These are two good-not-great basketball teams that may get swallowed alive in the best conference in America. For context, in the Big 12, both teams would be projected to finish fourth. In the SEC: 8th and 11th.
NCAAW: #31 Mississippi State at #37 Kentucky (-0.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. These are almost identical teams in a bizarre way: both top-5 in eFG% allowed, both barely above water in turnover margin, both with giant 2PT% gaps (+20.2% for MSU, +19.6% for UK), both holding opponents below 25% from three. The two areas this game swings for me are the boards and the free throw line, both of which MSU has had a statistical advantage in this year, but UK inarguably has the better top two with Georgia Amoore and Clara Strack.
#45 Northwestern at #36 Penn State (-5), 7 PM ET, Peacock. In terms of “how much future bubble leverage does this game have” this may be the game of the week. Northwestern’s offense is an excruciating watch but they have a top-15 defense; Penn State is all-around good and forces lots of turnovers but lacks real scoring talent beyond Ace Baldwin. For all the good Chris Collins has done the last two-plus seasons he’s not been great as a road underdog.
#110 Western Kentucky at #62 Liberty (-8), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. I could realistically be swayed to view these as the two best teams in CUSA even if I think Louisiana Tech is better than WKU.
C GAMES
#35 Memphis (-5) at #91 FAU, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I get it. I do. We’re all ready to finally believe in a Penny Hardaway team, to finally not get bitten by a Memphis slump that results in four losses in a month. Anyway, probably not worth talking about Penny being 8-15-1 ATS as a road favorite and 15-9 overall post-COVID.
NCAAW: #28 California (-7) at #70 Clemson, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. God, these are going to be weird. I’ll be keeping an eye on this in MBB as well but the awful road record of coast-to-coast travelers this college football season feels pretty important here.
NCAAW: #46 Belmont (-3) at #62 Missouri State, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. If you like your basketball teams that play with sledgehammers, Missouri State may be your squad. These ladies are ruthless on the boards, get fouled a ton, and are also shooting 39% from deep.
NCAAW: #18 Tennessee (-10) at #70 Texas A&M, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Are you aware that the Lady Vols are still unbeaten? Feels like it’s not all that well-reported right now, which is odd considering the brand status. This is the first real road test for the Kim Caldwell system after escaping Memphis earlier in the month after an ugly performance.
#125 St. Thomas at #113 North Dakota State (-4), 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. First battle of what seem to be the two best teams in the Summit League this year. There’s a decent shot that the winner here is a very, very frisky 14 seed.
#83 Rutgers at #54 Indiana (-6), 8:30 PM ET, Peacock. As I type this, I’m watching Indiana sweat it out with Winthrop for a full 40 minutes. Now, Winthrop is not bad, but they’re a 16-seed quality team that might not even be top two in the Big South. Anyway, this is one of two games they’re favored in between now and February 8.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 3
A GAME
#17 Michigan State at #28 Ohio State (-2), 8 PM ET, FOX. This is a deceptive Anxiety Game, which is always great for the first Friday of a calendar year. Ohio State has decent metrics and a pair of good wins over Texas and Kentucky but also has three demolitions at the hands of Quad 1 opponents. I think their resume is fine but also very 10-seed like, and every win like this really helps. Schematically, though, any team that hunts analytically-weak shots the way OSU does is vulnerable to getting suckered into a Midrange Massacre against a Michigan State team that can muck up a game very well. MSU’s likely also going to possess a large edge on the boards here.
B GAMES
#43 Iowa at #32 Wisconsin (-5), 7 PM ET, FS1. Trohl Center may be a thing of the past; since 2021 these are Wisconsin’s numbers as a home favorite.
Not great? I remember this being the scariest place to play in the world from 2010 through 2019, or at least it seemed that way. Iowa has actually been deceptively simple to figure out this year: they’re 8-0 when they commit 14 or fewer fouls and 1-3 when they don’t. Problematic against a Wisconsin team that gets more points from the free throw line than 93% of Division I teams.
D2: #7 Winona State at #3 Minot State (-3.5), 8:30 PM ET, streaming. I’m adding this in at the last second with this as the lone note: seems awesome. Will watch.
#61 Nevada at #65 New Mexico (-3), 11 PM ET, FS1. No strong lean in either direction here but I think I’ve got Nevada on life support. If you’re shooting 42% from three, second-best in America, and have still found a way to lose five games and start 0-2 in conference…oh boy. Gotta get a win this week. Gotta.
C GAMES
#245 Quinnipiac at #212 Saint Peter’s (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Given that the MAAC favorite never, ever wins the conference title, I’ll stake my claim that one of those two teams - the fourth and second-best, respectively - ends up a 16 seed.
#54 Xavier at #67 Georgetown (-1), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Two straight seasons from hell for Xavier, a season of progress if not excellence for Georgetown. Very diverse vibes for similar results.
#52 Creighton at #10 Marquette (-9), 9 PM ET, FS1. Creighton badly needs this win if they can get it. Since Shaka got to Marquette these games have routinely been very close, with four of seven being decided by six points or less. Fingers crossed for a repeat.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 4
A GAMES
#7 Florida (-2) at #26 Kentucky, 11 AM ET, ESPN. God, I love when they start these games before any others. Awful as a fan actually attending the game, great as a home viewer. This is an exciting and fun game no matter the stakes but it feels especially big here; it’s Mark Pope’s first huge home game against a top-tier opponent, and it’s Florida’s last huge test before potentially setting up a Game of the Year with Tennessee on the 7th. I think this is functionally a dead-even game and won’t be surprised by much of anything.
#23 Baylor at #5 Iowa State (-9), 2 PM ET, CBS. The only team to really ‘get’ the Iowa State defensive system multiple times last year was Baylor, who performed pretty well against it in each game, but Iowa State is actually offense-first this year. Considering Baylor’s three losses are to the three best offenses they’ve played…
#24 Arizona at #22 Cincinnati (-4), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Another cross-country test here, but more importantly, a test of how real or fake Cincy’s shot volume numbers are. They’re +9.8 in rebounds per 100 possessions and +5.6 in turnovers per 100, but against the 306th-toughest schedule in the sport. Meanwhile Arizona’s +14.9 and +2.7 against a top-50 slate.
#33 Texas at #14 Texas A&M (-7), 8 PM ET, SEC Network. In terms of the quality of the game, I have no doubt this will be extremely ugly and likely a battle to see who can get more free throw attempts. But it’s a rivalry, a really good one at that, and will have an extremely hostile environment on a Saturday night. Hard to say no to.
B GAMES
NCAAW: #3 UCLA (-14) at #34 Indiana, 12 PM ET, FOX. I don’t think much of this Indiana team and feel they might even be a little lucky to be 10-3, but again, huge amount of travel for UCLA. Now, the Bruins have more or less looked flawless thus far, but with a defense designed to force a lot of jumpers against an Indiana offense that can hit jumpers fairly well, the upset path is there.
#46 Georgia at #34 Ole Miss (-4), 12 PM ET, SEC Network. In the 2014-15 season this probably would’ve been a game between the eventual third and fourth-best teams in the league. These days it’s a battle between two teams praying they’ll finish in the upper half of the SEC.
#40 Arkansas at #3 Tennessee (-13), 1 PM ET, ESPN. By our SA-SVI numbers, this is actually #28 at #3, which is more interesting. It’s pretty good either way, because there’s the storyline of Jonas Aidoo coming back to Knoxville, as well as John Calipari’s first game in red against Rick Barnes, the one SEC coach to consistently have Cal’s number over the last decade.
#42 BYU at #4 Houston (-12), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. A genuinely wild thing to me: Houston’s defense has held 8 of 11 opponents below 40% from two thus far. That’s pretty hard to do in this day and age and of huge importance against a BYU team 16th in offensive 2PT% at 59.5%. (RED FLAG: This is against the 333rd-best defensive schedule in America.)
#13 UCLA (-1) at #38 Nebraska, 2 PM ET, FOX. It brings joy and/or peace to my heart that Fred Hoiberg seems to have firmly figured it out in Lincoln. Nice to see another big Saturday game for these guys. As much as I adore UCLA’s defense they’ve been oddly bad in transition this year, which is an area I guarantee Hoiberg wants to exploit.
#2 Duke (-7) at #41 SMU, 2:15 PM ET, The CW. What a huge opportunity for SMU here, huh? These guys rock offensively and their top six guys can all rip it from three. The big issue here is pretty obvious: who guards Cooper Flagg? I don’t love any of the available options much at all; their best defenders are either 6’3” (B.J. Edwards) or 7’2” (Samet Yigitoglu), both of whom will probably have other matchups (Edwards → Knueppel?, Samet → Khaman).
#39 San Diego State at #58 Boise State (-1), 4 PM ET, CBS. Boise is 10-3 and owns a pair of good wins over Clemson and Saint Mary’s, but their neutral site loss to an awful Boston College team is going to be a serious drag on their metrics. Both teams really need this one and it’s an actual rivalry of sorts. I should’ve bumped this up a tier.
#15 Texas Tech (-3) at #64 Utah, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Incomplete until Toppin is back. But! Darrion Williams has arguably been one of the 7-10 best players of the season so far and I’m loving his breakout.
#59 San Francisco at #81 Washington State (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. My advertisement for David Riley is as follows: he lost the best player on his team in Cedric Coward and the team has not dropped off whatsoever. 3-3 against Quads 1 & 2, btw.
C GAMES
#29 North Carolina (-4) at #85 Notre Dame, 12 PM ET, CBS. It’s 12 games but North Carolina has played like a First Four team thus far. This might be an NIT quarterfinal preview, unfortunately.
NCAAW: #79 Murray State at #85 Missouri State (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. MVC is loaded with serious talent this year.
#86 George Mason at #89 Rhode Island (-2), 2 PM ET, USA Network. I don’t think of either as a top-flight A10 squad but they’re both in that next level of team that could give this league its second (or third?) bid via a conference tournament run.
#96 Lipscomb (-4) at #187 North Florida, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Good ASun battle between the best team and the third-best team.
#124 High Point (-1) at #173 UNC Asheville, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Two best teams in the Big South. High Point is alarmingly reliant on free throws thus far to go with the same awful defense from last year.
#63 South Carolina at #21 Mississippi State (-11), 2 PM ET, SEC Network. How high are the nightly stakes in the SEC these days? South Carolina, a 9-3 team with a win over top-30 Clemson, is the worst team in the league, per KenPom.
#69 Butler at #16 St. John’s (-11), 2 PM ET, FS1. Every year we progress from 2010-2011, it’s a year that Butler’s Big East journey gets less and less fun. They’re just kinda there now. Sucks.
#50 Missouri at #1 Auburn (-18), 4 PM ET, SEC Network. I’m of the opinion that Auburn is almost too good and will likely revert a bit to the national mean, but any time a team is favored by 18 against a top-50 opponent it’s newsworthy.
#97 Arkansas State (-2) at #155 James Madison, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Sun Belt championship game preview? Arkansas State finally looks the part of the 13 seed you dread drawing.
#51 Vanderbilt at #57 LSU (-3), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Obviously, neither’s played a great schedule. But I do think it’s notable that two of the three least-loved teams in the SEC this year are #5 and #17 in 2PT%. Wild! Should be fun.
NCAAW: #56 Texas Tech at #6 Kansas State (-22.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Hat tip to the fantastic Serena Sundell for KSU, who is tracking for All-American status.
#37 Oklahoma at #8 Alabama (-9), 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Yes, for now, this is undefeated Oklahoma playing at a top-10 KenPom team with a worse record. But I can’t shake the feeling I saw this game already, on the first Saturday of 2024.
#128 Middle Tennessee at #62 Liberty (-10), 6 PM ET, CBSSN. Liberty looks very scary this year but CUSA as a whole really feels like it’s headed in the right direction; they could achieve their highest KP conference finish since finishing 8th in 2010-11.
#11 Michigan (-6) at #79 USC, 8 PM ET, FOX. Another test of the cross-country question here. Michigan’s 3-3 away from home - no crime - but looks like a top 8 team at home. Need to close that gap.
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
A GAMES
NCAAW: #5 Notre Dame (-3) at #8 North Carolina, 1 PM ET, ESPN. I mean, I’m looking at it and saying to myself “why do you need a sell here?” It’s just an elite game between two teams that have serious hopes of winning the national title this year. But! It’s not the best women’s game of the day somehow.
NCAAW: #13 Oklahoma at #19 Tennessee (PK), 3 PM ET, ESPN. My explanation is as follows: as of now, the projected Torvik score for this game is 88-87 Tennessee. The projected score for ND/UNC, while great, is just 69-66. These two teams will run and run and run until someone drops dead. If you find yourself constantly wishing basketball were played at a quicker place, this is your Game of the Year. I am looking forward to attending, personally.
#20 Maryland at #12 Oregon (-4), 4 PM ET, Peacock. Again: hugely educational week for determining how important cross-country travel is to a team’s success. This feels like a situationally ugly spot for Maryland as well after likely wrapping up their Thursday game with Washington at midnight. But. BUT. I think their paths to victory, in an average game, are more sustainable than Oregon’s. And I don’t know who Oregon has that can consistently shut the door on the Derik Queen/Julian Reese pair.
Vikings at Lions, 8:20 PM ET, NBC. (heavy breathing)
B GAMES
#56 Indiana at #36 Penn State (-5), 12 PM ET, BTN. This is a fantastic Narrative Game. Either Penn State seizes it and it’s all about how good Mike Rhoades is/how bad Mike Woodson is, or Indiana goes 2-0 this week and we’re all chastised for shutting the door too early on a hyper-talented IU squad.
NCAAW: #1 South Carolina (-13.5) at #31 Mississippi State, 2 PM ET, SEC Network. The Gamecocks are a little more vulnerable this year, so the typical ‘almost certainly not’ equation one applies to their games is lessened for now. State has been tremendous on the boards and draws a ton of fouls, both of which are issues for SoCar.
#45 Northwestern at #27 Purdue (-6), 2 PM ET, BTN. Skip you KNOW I love a good Movable Object versus Stoppable Force game. Northwestern’s offense (minus the awesome Martinelli/Barnhizer pair) versus Purdue’s defense is exactly that.
NCAAW: #35 Illinois at #30 Minnesota (-5), 3 PM ET, BTN+. Fun game. Both have gaudy records (Minnesota 13-1, Illinois 11-2) but they’ve come against pretty forgettable schedules. Neither turns the ball over, both protect the boards very well, and neither fouls often.
NCAAW: #45 Auburn at #14 LSU (-13), 4 PM ET, SEC Network. Another year where Kim Mulkey has played a very dull non-conference schedule with three good games in it, so I feel like I know just about nothing.
#71 North Texas at #35 Memphis (-8), 5 PM ET, ESPN. For once and for all, we will find out something of real importance: can a team that’s 248th in 2PT% and 293rd in TO% continue to win games like this? Can Tyrese Hunter continue to shoot 45% from three while hitting 41% of twos?
NCAAW: #25 Maryland at #20 Iowa (-4), 6 PM ET, BTN. The Big Ten middle class this year is super fun. Both of these teams play styles of basketball I personally enjoy; both generate a lot of good shots.
NCAAW: #32 Utah (-1) at #44 Iowa State, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Not sure Utah has anyone to really check Audi Crooks and Addy Brown for a full 40. On the other hand: not sure Iowa State can defend much of anyone or anything on the perimeter right now.
C GAMES
NCAAW: #2 UConn (-18.5) at #50 Villanova, 1:30 PM ET, SNY. Please fix the Big East TV contract so I can stop losing UConn WBB games to a channel only the five boroughs get.
NCAAW: #73 Boston College at #24 NC State (-14.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. A hearty salute to BC’s Dontavia Waggoner, a super-senior that plays on the wing, has made eight threes in her college career, has a 5.4% Steal% (!) over her career, and has 13 offensive rebounds in BC’s last three games. A unique star.
#77 Providence at #18 UConn (-11), 2 PM ET, NBC. Likely nothing, but the Providence mega-drop against a UConn team that very rarely takes pull-up jumpers intrigues me. Problem is they’re very good at hitting jumpers of any kind.
NCAAW: #62 Penn State at #36 Nebraska (-9), 3 PM ET, BTN+.
NCAAW: #28 Ole Miss (-6.5) at #69 Texas A&M, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Two mirror-image games in two difference conferences: favored-but-flawed team plays a team that likely won’t make the NCAAT but is still tough to tangle with.
#120 Murray State at #68 Drake (-8), 3 PM ET, ESPN2. Been very fun watching Ben McCollum do the exact same things Ben McCollum did at Northwest Missouri State for 15 years to seemingly everyone’s collective surprise. I promise, people, it’s pretty helpful paying any attention whatsoever to the good teams outside of Division I.
NCAAW: #37 Kentucky at #17 Vanderbilt (-9), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Educational battle between two teams who I’m not totally certain how good or not good they are.
#9 Kansas (-7) at #74 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an A Game for haters. If Kansas loses this one, Hunter Dickinson will finish 0-3 at Addition Financial Arena in his career, as in addition to last year’s loss, Dickinson and Michigan lost at UCF in late 2021. This is insane yet somehow true.
NCAAW: #29 California (-9) at #83 SMU, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. And to close out these 6,000+ words, here is a game that is on television.