The 2025 NCAA Tournament preview: a roundup

From 68 to 1, here we go

You have reached the end of this year’s NCAA Tournament preview content. A full list of what I’ve written, shared, or spat out is below in order.

Post-Selection Sunday:

• March 16: A historical analysis of the 2025 NCAA Tournament (free). A prop bet proposal: more Round of 32 upsets than Round of 64.

• March 17: How stats and history would pick the men’s 2025 NCAA Tournament (paid). Live free, pick Houston. (And Maryland.)

• March 18: Shot volume stats for the 2025 men’s NCAA Tournament (paid). Second chances for everybody, but mostly Houston and St. John’s.

• March 18: Picks for the 2025 women’s NCAA Tournament (paid). UConn is a machine. West Virginia is Costco Tennessee if Tennessee is BJ’s Tennessee. Or Sam’s Club but apparently per some that’s too mean.

• March 19: Survivor pool thoughts for the Tournament’s first two days (free). Wisconsin and Arizona for me.

Pre-Selection Sunday:

• November 15, 2024: Scoring is the best it’s been in men’s college basketball in 30 years (paid). Still is.

• December 6, 2024: Is the 2024-25 SEC the greatest conference in modern history? (free). Maybe, maybe not. But chances are it’s a little overrated in terms of March prowess.

• January 17: The 2025 NCAA Tournament field could be the strongest in modern history (free). Looks like it ended up being so.

• February 14: Yes, the 2025 NCAA Tournament is still tracking to be historically strong (free). Even in mid-February we saw it coming.

• February 28: Which 2025 mid-majors/one-bid stars match up well with creators of chaos past? (paid). Hey, we got VCU at least.

• March 15: The story of the 2025 field, as told by shot volume (paid). Strength in turnovers and rebounds. Alabama: fix that, fellas.

If you’re still somehow in need of content, I strongly recommend reading Jordan Majewski (plus Jon Fendler, Matthew Winick, and Jim Root)’s thoughts on every single game in the Round of 64. It’s the greatest Wordpress blog on the planet. Here is Seth Fisher’s Bracket Assist Tool, which I love using every single year. Eamonn Brennan’s writing is worth your dollars. Giant Killers is back. Jon Fendler will help you win money. I barely listen to sports podcasts at all anymore, but Eye on College Basketball and Three Man Weave are both a delight. Evan Miyakawa will make you smarter. I wish he wrote more. Here’s a fun post from George Stuckey with a lot of otherwise-paywalled stats from Synergy. I use Hoop-Explorer every day. Here is one stat for all 68 teams in the women’s field. My friend Isaac Trotter is great at breaking these games down. Gigantic NCAA Tournament guide I’m blindly sharing. Neil Paine wrote about how Duke isn’t actually a bad title pick and he survived writing ESPN’s Bubble Watch this year despite having to use BPI. There are also great writers still kicking at ESPN, the Athletic, and several other sites.

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Last year’s summary included this:

This is a horrible time to be striking it out on one’s own in media, or to be going out in media at all. . . . I am incredibly, incredibly lucky to be able to do what I do and to have a day job that helps me pay the bills.

The first sentence is still true. The second is not. I got laid off last month. It is what it is. Please do not share sympathy or “I’m so sorry” or anything like that; I am well and moving on. Frankly, when I realized I’d have no barriers between me and a wide-open March I was fine with it.

But the happiest and most at-peace I’ve been in several months is this week. A lot of people have said really kind-hearted things about the newsletter and my work here. Several have privately reached out to say that the work here has helped them understand basketball better, love the sport more, or simply enjoy March in a deeper and more meaningful way. That means a ton to me.

Writing is often a thankless job, particularly these days, but the subscribers and readers over the last week (and honestly, the last month-plus) have made it feel like as great a blessing as can be. This is the close of year three of the paid version of this newsletter and we’re nearing 5,000 subscribers total, 1,000 paid. I never, ever, ever thought that would be possible. But here we are.

I hope you have a great March, just like I’m hoping to have a great March. Let’s ride.